Forward-Looking Survey on Private Corporate Sector CAPEX Investment Intentions

1. At a Glance

• First-of-its-kind enterprise survey conducted by the National Statistical Office (NSO) under MoSPI to capture past, current and forward-looking capital expenditure intentions of the private corporate sector [1][2].
• Fills a critical data gap: until now, private CAPEX intentions were tracked only via RBI's "Phasing of Capital Expenditure of Companies" study (based on bank-sanctioned project loans) — the NSO survey provides a broader, enterprise-level benchmark [2].
• Relevant for GS-III (Indian Economy — investment models, growth, statistics) and Prelims (Economic Survey/PIB factual questions).

2. Why in the News

• On 23 March 2026, PIB released findings of the second round of the Forward-Looking Survey on Private Corporate Sector CAPEX Investment Intentions for the reference period October–December 2025, estimating ₹11.44 lakh crore of CAPEX for 2025–26 [1].
• Earlier round (April 2025) had released results for the survey conducted November 2024 – January 2025, covering FY 2021-22 to FY 2025-26 intentions [2][3].

3. Background & Evolution

• 2024 (Nov–Jan 2025): Inaugural CAPEX Survey launched by NSO/MoSPI; sample of 3,064 responding enterprises of which 2,172 reported 2025-26 intentions [2].
• April 2025: First press release published findings (FYs 2021-22 to 2025-26 intentions) [2].
• March 2026: Second/forward-looking round released for survey period Oct–Dec 2025, providing realisation ratios for 2024-25 and projections for 2026-27 [1].
• Predecessor data sources: RBI's project-finance based CAPEX tracking; MoSPI's Annual Survey of Industries (ASI) (which has begun tracking private CAPEX in revised schedule) [3].

4. Core Static Facts

• Conducting body: National Statistical Office (NSO), under Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation (MoSPI) [1][2].
• Survey type: Enterprise-level, forward-looking, voluntary feedback survey [2].
• Reference universe: Private corporate sector enterprises (non-government companies) [1].
• Sample (Round 1): 3,064 responding enterprises; 2,172 reported 2025-26 intentions [2].
• Estimated CAPEX 2025-26: ₹11.44 lakh crore [1].
• CAPEX per enterprise (2024-25): Intended ₹180.2 crore; Actual ₹173.5 crore [1].
• Realisation ratio (2024-25): 96.3% [1].
• Financing mix (2025-26):
• Internal accruals: 65.35%
• Domestic debt: 23.25%
• Domestic equity: 3.78%
• Foreign debt: 2.38%

• FDI route: 1.04% [2].

• Purpose of CAPEX (2025-26): Income generation — 60.13% of enterprises; Capacity upgradation — 42.12% [2].

5. Multi-Dimensional Analysis

Economic

• Confirms private investment revival: high 96.3% realisation ratio signals corporate confidence and execution capability [1].
• Dominance of internal accruals (65%+) indicates deleveraged corporate balance sheets and limited reliance on credit — consistent with the post-2017 NPA cleanup cycle [2].
• Low share of FDI (1.04%) and foreign debt suggests private CAPEX is largely domestically financed, reducing external vulnerability [2].

Administrative / Statistical Governance

• Plugs a long-standing data gap in India's investment statistics — earlier only RBI's bank-loan-based proxy existed [2].
• Reinforces MoSPI's pivot to high-frequency, forward-looking indicators alongside backward-looking ASI/NAS data [3].

Strategic / Policy

• Provides empirical basis for Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) projections feeding into Union Budget and RBI Monetary Policy [1].
• Supports "crowding-in" hypothesis — public CAPEX push (Centre's capex outlay) translating into private CAPEX response [1].

Sectoral

• Focus on core asset creation and capacity expansion (plant & machinery dominant) — aligns with PLI scheme outcomes and manufacturing push [1].

6. Recent Developments (last 12-18 months)

• April 2025: MoSPI released first findings of the inaugural Forward-Looking CAPEX Survey (Nov 2024–Jan 2025 reference) [2].
• 23 March 2026: PIB released second round results (Oct–Dec 2025 reference), projecting ₹11.44 lakh crore CAPEX for 2025-26 and signalling continued momentum into 2026-27 [1].
• MoSPI also began tracking private capex in revised Annual Survey of Industries schedule [3].

7. Prelims Hooks

• The Forward-Looking CAPEX Survey is conducted by NSO under MoSPI — not RBI [1].
• Inaugural round: November 2024 – January 2025 [2].
• Estimated private corporate CAPEX 2025-26: ₹11.44 lakh crore [1].
• Realisation ratio for 2024-25 = 96.3% (Actual ₹173.5 cr vs Intended ₹180.2 cr per enterprise) [1].
• Internal accruals are the largest financing source (~65.35%) for private CAPEX 2025-26 [2].
• FDI financed only ~1.04% of private CAPEX intentions for 2025-26 [2].
• 60.13% of enterprises undertook CAPEX for income generation; 42.12% for capacity upgradation [2].
• Survey covers past 3 FYs + current + forward year in a single instrument [2].
• Sample size of 3,064 responding enterprises in inaugural round [2].
• Complements RBI's "Phasing of CAPEX of Companies" which uses bank-sanctioned project loan data [2].

8. Mains Relevance

• GS-III: "Indian Economy — Mobilization of Resources, Growth, Investment Models."
• Question stems:
• "Discuss how the NSO's Forward-Looking CAPEX Survey addresses gaps in India's investment statistics ecosystem."
• "High reliance on internal accruals for private corporate CAPEX reflects both balance-sheet strength and weak credit transmission. Examine."
• "Evaluate the role of public capital expenditure in crowding-in private investment, using evidence from the NSO CAPEX Survey."

9. Related Topics to Study Next

• Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) — headline investment indicator in National Accounts.
• RBI's Phasing of CAPEX of Companies study — complementary data source.
• Annual Survey of Industries (ASI) — backward-looking manufacturing capex data.
• Production Linked Incentive (PLI) Schemes — policy driver of private manufacturing CAPEX.
• National Infrastructure Pipeline (NIP) & PM GatiShakti — public CAPEX framework that crowds in private investment.
• MoSPI Statistical Reforms — Standing Committee on Statistics, new ASI design, MCA-MoSPI data linkage.
• Twin Balance Sheet Problem & IBC — historical backdrop to current private CAPEX revival.

10. Common Errors / Trap Areas

• Conducting agency confusion: It is NSO/MoSPI, not RBI or NITI Aayog.
• Not the same as RBI's CAPEX study — RBI tracks bank-financed project pipelines; NSO tracks enterprise intentions.
• The figure ₹11.44 lakh crore refers to estimated CAPEX for 2025-26, not actual realisation.
• Realisation ratio (96.3%) pertains to 2024-25 (actual vs intended per-enterprise), not 2025-26.
• Survey is forward-looking but also captures 3 prior years — not purely projective.