UPSC Prelims Practice Questions — Long Range Forecast For the 2026 Southwest Monsoon Season Rainfall

Question 1

The first-stage Long Range Forecast for the 2026 southwest monsoon season, quantifying all-India rainfall at 92% of the Long Period Average, is issued by which one of the following organisations?

Accepted Answer

India Meteorological Department

Answer

National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting

Answer

Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune

Answer

Central Pollution Control Board under MoEFCC

Question 2

In its first-stage forecast for 2026, IMD placed all-India southwest monsoon rainfall at 92% of the Long Period Average, subject to a model error of how many percentage points?

Accepted Answer

± 5 percentage points

Answer

± 3 percentage points

Answer

± 4 percentage points

Answer

± 6 percentage points

Question 3

The Long Period Average (LPA) that serves as the benchmark for India's seasonal monsoon forecasts is computed and periodically revised by which one of the following?

Accepted Answer

India Meteorological Department

Answer

Central Water Commission

Answer

NITI Aayog

Answer

National Remote Sensing Centre, ISRO

Question 4

In the context of IMD's monsoon prediction, the term 'Long Period Average (LPA)' refers to which one of the following?

Accepted Answer

The average June-September rainfall over the reference period 1971-2020, currently 87 cm

Answer

The highest all-India seasonal rainfall recorded since 1901

Answer

The 30-year climatological normal of total annual rainfall prescribed by the WMO

Answer

The median rainfall of the immediately preceding ten monsoon seasons

Question 5

The India Meteorological Department, which issues the seasonal Long Range Forecast, was established in which year?

Accepted Answer

1875

Answer

1864

Answer

1886

Answer

1905

Question 6

Which one of the following correctly describes the India Meteorological Department?

Accepted Answer

The National Meteorological Service under the Ministry of Earth Sciences, the principal agency for weather forecasting and seismology

Answer

An attached office of the Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change responsible for air-pollution forecasting

Answer

An autonomous body under the Ministry of Science and Technology set up to run the Monsoon Mission

Answer

A technical wing of the Ministry of Agriculture that advises exclusively on kharif sowing

Question 7

The dynamical Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) used in IMD's monsoon forecasting was developed under the Monsoon Mission launched by the Ministry of Earth Sciences in which year?

Accepted Answer

2012

Answer

2003

Answer

2007

Answer

2017

Question 8

IMD issues its operational Long Range Forecast for the all-India southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall in how many stages?

Accepted Answer

Two

Answer

Three

Answer

Four

Answer

Five

Question 9

With reference to the oceanic and atmospheric conditions cited by IMD behind the 2026 below-normal monsoon forecast, consider the following statements:
1. ENSO-neutral conditions are most likely during the early part of the monsoon season.
2. The MMCFS indicates the development of El Nino conditions during the southwest monsoon season.
3. Neutral Indian Ocean Dipole conditions currently prevail over the Indian Ocean.
4. A strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole is already established and is the principal driver of the below-normal forecast.
Which of the statements given above is/are NOT correct?

Accepted Answer

4 only

Answer

3 and 4

Answer

1 and 4

Answer

2 only

Question 10

Consider the following IMD all-India rainfall categories and their percentage-of-LPA ranges:
1. Normal : 96-104% of LPA
2. Above Normal : 105-110% of LPA
3. Excess : more than 110% of LPA
4. Deficient : less than 96% of LPA
Which of the above pairs is/are NOT correctly matched?

Accepted Answer

4 only

Answer

1 only

Answer

2 and 3

Answer

1 and 4

Question 11

With reference to the recent trend in India's southwest monsoon, consider the following statements:
1. The 2026 first-stage forecast is the first below-normal seasonal outlook after two consecutive above-normal monsoon years (2024 and 2025).
2. The 2024 southwest monsoon ended below normal, at about 92% of LPA.
3. IMD's 2025 forecast projected seasonal rainfall at 106% of LPA, in the above-normal category.
Which of the statements given above is/are correct?

Accepted Answer

1 and 3 only

Answer

1 and 2 only

Answer

2 and 3 only

Answer

1, 2 and 3

UPSC Prelims Practice Questions — Long Range Forecast For the 2026 Southwest Monsoon Season Rainfall

Q1. The first-stage Long Range Forecast for the 2026 southwest monsoon season, quantifying all-India rainfall at 92% of the Long Period Average, is issued by which one of the following organisations?

Q2. In its first-stage forecast for 2026, IMD placed all-India southwest monsoon rainfall at 92% of the Long Period Average, subject to a model error of how many percentage points?

Q3. The Long Period Average (LPA) that serves as the benchmark for India's seasonal monsoon forecasts is computed and periodically revised by which one of the following?

Q4. In the context of IMD's monsoon prediction, the term 'Long Period Average (LPA)' refers to which one of the following?

Q5. The India Meteorological Department, which issues the seasonal Long Range Forecast, was established in which year?

Q6. Which one of the following correctly describes the India Meteorological Department?

Q7. The dynamical Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) used in IMD's monsoon forecasting was developed under the Monsoon Mission launched by the Ministry of Earth Sciences in which year?

Q8. IMD issues its operational Long Range Forecast for the all-India southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall in how many stages?

Q10. Consider the following IMD all-India rainfall categories and their percentage-of-LPA ranges: 1. Normal : 96-104% of LPA 2. Above Normal : 105-110% of LPA 3. Excess : more than 110% of LPA 4. Deficient : less than 96% of LPA Which of the above pairs is/are NOT correctly matched?