Assess how well India–China hydrological data-sharing arrangements address downstream water security concerns.

India and China share the Brahmaputra and Sutlej without any treaty. Cooperation runs through an Expert-Level Mechanism (ELM, 2006) on flood-season hydrological data [1] and executive MoUs [2]. China has now approved a mega-dam on the lower Yarlung Tsangpo [4]. Against that, these arrangements handle flood warning reasonably well but leave wider water security largely uncovered.

What the arrangements achieve

• Flood early warning: China supplies data from upstream Brahmaputra stations during the flood season. The Central Water Commission uses it to forecast floods [5].
• Institutional continuity: 16 ELM meetings have been held, the latest in New Delhi in April 2025. The channel survived the 2020 LAC crisis [1].
• Two basins covered: under the existing MoUs, China provides flood-season data for both the Brahmaputra and Sutlej [3].
• Diplomatic platform: India used the ELM and diplomatic channels to press for transparency and consultation with downstream countries on the new Chinese dam (30 Dec 2024) [4].

Where they fall short

• Seasonal blind spot: India gets data only in the flood season [1]. In the lean season it cannot tell a natural low flow from upstream regulation, which is the core "weaponisation" fear.
• No infrastructure transparency: the data covers river flows, not dam design, reservoir operation or release schedules. India could only "take note" of the mega-project [4].
• Weak legal basis: data comes under a 2013 MoU [2]. That is an executive understanding, not a binding obligation, so supply depends on the state of bilateral ties.
• Narrow scope: there are no provisions on sediment, water quality, glacial-lake or landslide-dam outbursts, or emergency alerts after earthquakes.
• Bilateral only: Bangladesh, the lowest riparian, is left out.

Way forward

• Widen the ELM to year-round data and advance notice of reservoir releases.
• Strengthen India's own monitoring (border gauges, satellite altimetry) under Jal Shakti/CWC, building on MEA's commitment to "carefully monitor" developments [4].
• Pursue a basin-level dialogue that includes Bangladesh, plus a joint disaster-notification protocol.

Overall, the current arrangements work as a flood-warning tool but not as a water-security framework. The realistic path is to upgrade seasonal data-sharing into year-round, transparent basin cooperation, in line with SDG target 6.5 on transboundary water management, while building India's own hydrological capacity.