Critically examine China's 'dual carbon' strategy and its implications for global green-technology supply chains.

Q. Critically examine China's 'dual carbon' strategy and its implications for global green-technology supply chains. (15 marks, 250-350 words)

China's 'dual carbon' pledge — CO₂ peaking before 2030 and carbon neutrality before 2060, announced by Xi Jinping in September 2020 [1] — is as much an industrial-policy project as a climate commitment: impressive in scale, but slower in near-term abatement.

Strengths: state-led scale and market-building - Carbon pricing: the national emissions trading market now spans electricity, iron and steel, cement and aluminium, covering over 60% of national carbon emissions [1]. - Renewables: installed wind and photovoltaic capacity surpassed 1,690 GW by August 2025 [1]. - Innovation policy: decades of sustained technology policy made China the manufacturing powerhouse for solar PV, wind turbines and EV batteries [2]. - Demand-side pull: new energy vehicles reached a 52.2% penetration rate in domestic passenger vehicle sales (Jan–Sep 2025) [1], with port cities such as Ningbo repurposed as EV export hubs [3].

Critical weaknesses - Deferral: a target set "before 2060" permits emissions to keep rising through the 2030s, postponing the steepest cuts. - Coal lock-in: nearly 80 GW of coal capacity was commissioned in 2025 on energy-security grounds [4], entrenching fossil assets. - Untested market: the trading scheme's industrial coverage is recent, so its mitigation impact remains unproven rather than demonstrated.

Implications for global green-technology supply chains - Concentration risk: China's share exceeds 80% at every solar PV manufacturing stage and is set to cross 95% for polysilicon and wafers [5] — a single point of failure, as plant outages causing global price spikes have shown [5]. - Двойной effect: low-cost modules and cells accelerate worldwide decarbonisation, yet deepen import dependence and fuel overcapacity and trade-remedy disputes. - For India: import reliance makes domestic capacity strategic — hence the PLI scheme for Advanced Chemistry Cell battery storage (₹18,100 crore, 50 GWh) [6].

China's strategy thus buys the world cheap clean technology while concentrating strategic risk. The balanced response is not decoupling but diversification — India should pair PLI-led manufacturing with critical-mineral partnerships and its Carbon Credit Trading Scheme, converting dependence into competitive capability aligned with SDG-7 and SDG-9.

(~330 words)

Sources: 1. Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality: China's Plans and Solutions (State Council White Paper, 2025) — dual carbon goals, ETS sectoral coverage, 1,690 GW wind+solar, 52.2% NEV penetration 2. Tracking Clean Energy Innovation: Focus on China – IEA — sustained innovation policy behind PV, wind and battery manufacturing leadership 3. "Inside China's green transition," The Hindu (Ananth Krishnan), 30 May 2026 — Ningbo as an EV manufacturing and export hub 4. Coal 2025 – Executive Summary, IEA — ~80 GW of coal capacity commissioned in China in 2025 5. Solar PV Global Supply Chains – Executive Summary, IEA — China's >80% share across PV stages, >95% for polysilicon and wafers, supply-shock vulnerability 6. Cabinet approves PLI scheme "National Programme on Advanced Chemistry Cell Battery Storage", PIB — ₹18,100 crore outlay for 50 GWh domestic ACC capacity