Discuss the role of scientific climate forecasting in agricultural target-setting and contingency planning in India.

In 2026, El Niño brought a monsoon deficit of about 12%. The Centre set the 2026-27 foodgrain target at 373.93 MT, which is below the record 376.56 MT produced in 2025-26. It said the target was based on a "scientific assessment of El Niño conditions" [1]. Climate forecasting is no longer just a weather service. It now sits at the centre of how India plans its farm output.

Role in target-setting

• Realistic targets: forecasts linked to the El Niño cycle let the Ministry lower targets early instead of chasing numbers it cannot reach. The Rabi target of 177.72 MT was fixed with the States at the national Rabi conference [1].
• Season-wise planning: Rabi crops depend on the soil moisture and reservoir water left after the monsoon. So forecasts made after the monsoon shape Rabi sowing area and crop-mix goals.
• Early signal for food management: targets guide decisions on procurement, buffer stocks, trade and food inflation.

Role in contingency planning

• Mapping vulnerable districts: about 315 districts were identified as potentially affected. The assessment looked at low rainfall and poor irrigation [2].
• Stocking inputs in advance: about 1% extra seed stock has been set aside for re-sowing in affected districts. Krishi Vigyan Kendras (KVKs) and agromet units have been told to guide farmers [2].
• District Agriculture Contingency Plans: ICAR-CRIDA has prepared these plans. They recommend short-duration, drought-tolerant alternate crops and careful use of water [3].
• Advice at farm level: under Gramin Krishi Mausam Sewa, IMD and ICAR issue district- and block-level advisories twice a week. These reach farmers by SMS and the Meghdoot app [4].

Limitations

• National averages hide local distress: a national figure can hide severe shortfalls in some districts. Rainfed farmers can lose income even when total output holds.
• Some crops are missed: in the 2023 El Niño year, early estimates showed Kharif pulses output falling [5]. The overall foodgrain total can look stable while pulses are under stress.
• Forecasts are only probabilities: other factors such as the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) change how El Niño affects the monsoon. Farmers also do not use advisories evenly.

Forecasting has helped India's farm planning shift from reacting to a crisis to preparing for one. The next steps should be:

• district-level Rabi risk lists
• separate tracking of pulses
• faster crop-insurance (PMFBY) claims in flagged districts
• closer links between forecasts and advisories under NICRA

This kind of science-led preparedness supports SDG 2 (Zero Hunger) and climate-resilient food security.