El Niño years have historically been associated with deficient monsoons, yet India's foodgrain output has become increasingly resilient. Examine the factors behind this resilience and the residual vulnerabilities.

El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and it has historically weakened India's south-west monsoon. Yet in 2026, with a rainfall deficit of about 12%, the Union Agriculture Minister ruled out any "major crisis" on the strength of a record 2025-26 output of 376.56 MT [1]. This resilience holds at the national level but is uneven beneath it.

Factors behind resilience

• Irrigation expansion: irrigated area rose from 49.3% to 55% of gross cropped area between FY16 and FY21 (Economic Survey 2024-25) [2]. This reduces how much crops depend on the monsoon.
• Irrigated rice–wheat core: in the El Niño year 2023-24, there were drought-like conditions in the southern states and a dry August in Rajasthan. Foodgrain output still reached a record 332.3 MT, led by record rice and wheat [3].
• Scientific contingency planning: ICAR-CRIDA's District Agriculture Contingency Plans recommend alternative crops for low-rainfall years. An El Niño Monitoring Cell tracks the season [4].
• Forecast-based targets: the 2026-27 target was trimmed to 373.93 MT based on a "scientific assessment of El Niño conditions" [1].
• Surplus cushion: 2025-26 output beat its 362 MT target by about 14.56 MT [1].

Residual vulnerabilities

• Rainfed farming: FAO warns that El Niño stresses rainfed rice and maize, and it places India among the countries most exposed to agricultural drought [5].
• Pulses fall first: in 2023-24, Kharif pulses were estimated lower, at 71.18 lakh tonnes, because of the weather [6]. A stable foodgrain total can hide a shortfall in protein supply.
• Regional concentration: about 315 districts may be affected, and 111 of them have irrigation below 25% [4]. The national average hides this local distress.
• Rabi carry-over: a weak monsoon leaves less soil moisture and reservoir water for the winter crop, which puts the 177.72 MT Rabi target at risk [1].
• Output vs income: a stable national tonnage does not protect the incomes of rainfed farmers. Much of the resilience also depends on groundwater, which is being depleted.

India has turned El Niño from a threat to national food supply into a mainly district-level threat to farmers' livelihoods. The next steps are district-wise Rabi risk maps, separate early warnings for pulses, faster PMFBY crop-insurance payouts in high-risk districts, and wider adoption of NICRA climate-resilient practices. Together these would make India's resilience reach every farmer, in line with SDG 2 (Zero Hunger) and SDG 13 (Climate Action).