*How does El Niño affect India's obligations under international food trade and its bilateral relations with food-importing nations? Illustrate with recent examples.*
Q. How does El Niño affect India's obligations under international food trade and its bilateral relations with food-importing nations? Illustrate with recent examples. (15 marks, 250-350 words)
El Niño translates a Pacific sea-surface anomaly into a trade-policy decision in New Delhi. With IMD's 2026 Long Range Forecast placing the monsoon at 92% of LPA — "below normal" — under developing El Niño conditions [1], India, the largest rice exporter, faces a recurring dilemma: protect domestic consumers or honour its commitments to importing partners.
Impact on multilateral trade obligations - GATT Article XI:2(a) permits temporary export prohibitions to relieve critical foodstuff shortages, but Article 12 of the Agreement on Agriculture obliges exporters to give due consideration to importers' food security and notify the Committee on Agriculture in advance [2]. - Repeated El Niño-triggered curbs strain the MC12 (2022) Geneva Package — the declaration against WTO-inconsistent export restrictions and the decision exempting WFP humanitarian purchases from such restrictions [3]. - Credibility cost: India is a leading demandeur for a permanent solution on public stockholding; frequent export bans weaken its transparency record in the same negotiations.
Impact on bilateral relations - The July–August 2023 prohibition on non-basmati white rice [4], imposed during the 2023 El Niño, removed roughly a quarter of India's rice exports from the market, raising prices for West African and Southeast Asian buyers dependent on Indian supply. - India offset the diplomatic damage through government-to-government exemptions routed via NCEL, which received permission to export about 14.9 lakh MT of non-basmati white rice to 16 countries on requesting governments' appeals [5] — converting restriction into calibrated "rice diplomacy" with neighbourhood and African partners. - Alternatives narrow when El Niño is global: FAO's July 2026 cereal and sugar indices rose on El Niño-linked production concerns in key Asian producers [6], limiting buyers' ability to switch suppliers.
El Niño thus makes trade policy an instrument of foreign policy. Linking IMD–NOAA early warnings to pre-announced, time-bound and duly notified export measures, backed by buffer stocks and standing G2G corridors, would let India safeguard domestic food security while remaining a dependable partner advancing SDG-2.
(~330 words)
Sources: 1. IMD Long Range Forecast for the 2026 Southwest Monsoon Season Rainfall, PIB — 92% of LPA, "below normal", El Niño development 2. WTO — Agriculture: Food Security — disciplines and notification requirements on export restrictions 3. WTO MC12 "Geneva Package" — food insecurity declaration and WFP exemption decision 4. Centre prohibits export of Non-Basmati White Rice, PIB (2023) — export ban; share of total rice exports 5. Functioning of NCEL, PIB — 14,92,800 MT non-basmati white rice cleared for 16 countries 6. FAO Food Price Index — July 2026 cereal and sugar index rises linked to El Niño conditions in Asia