Evaluate the effectiveness of early warning systems in reducing heatwave mortality in India, citing state-level examples.

Q. Evaluate the effectiveness of early warning systems in reducing heatwave mortality in India, citing state-level examples. (15 marks, 250-350 words)

Heatwaves, though not a notified disaster under the Disaster Management Act, 2005, are managed by states through NDMA-guided Heat Action Plans (HAPs) [1]. Early warning systems (EWS) have measurably cut mortality, but their gains remain uneven and warning-dependent.

Demonstrated effectiveness - Forecast to doorstep: IMD issues impact-based forecasts with colour-coded, district-level risk warnings, integrated since 2023 into an indigenous multi-hazard Decision Support System [2]. - Andhra Pradesh: the very strong El Niño year of 2015 caused 1,369 deaths in the state, of over 2,300 nationally; the resulting APSDMA now runs a heat-wave atlas, mandal-level alerts and a state HAP [4][6]. State tolls fell sharply thereafter — to 723 in 2016 and lower since [6]. - Gujarat: the Ahmedabad HAP (2013), South Asia's first, became the template NDMA extended to heat-wave-prone states [1]. - Officially, timely IMD warnings are credited with the national decline in heat-related deaths in recent years [3].

Limits to effectiveness - Warning is not protection: alerts cannot shield outdoor labourers, the elderly and the urban poor who lack shade, water and cooling — mitigation, not messaging, is the binding constraint [1]. - Reactive institution-building: APSDMA was created after the 2015 tragedy, not in anticipation of it [6]. - Compounded climatic stress: El Niño weakens monsoon rainfall while intensifying heat [5]; despite alerts, A.P. recorded nine successive days above 44°C, peaking at 48.3°C, in May 2026 [6]. - Data gaps: heat-death certification and morbidity surveillance remain weak, obscuring true effectiveness [1]. - Coverage is thinner in rural mandals and among informal workers than in planned cities.

On balance, EWS have been India's most cost-effective heat intervention — the fall in Andhra Pradesh's toll is proof of institutional learning. Their next dividend lies in converting warnings into action: cool roofs, work-hour regulation, hydration points and heat-proofed primary health centres, advancing SDG-3 and SDG-13.

(~320 words)

Sources: 1. NDMA, National Guidelines for Preparation of Action Plan – Prevention and Management of Heat Wave (2017) — HAP framework, heat-wave-prone states, long-term mitigation and surveillance gaps 2. PIB, India's Multi-Hazard Early Warning Decision Support System — impact-based forecasts, district colour codes, DSS operational since 2023 3. PIB, Parliament Question: Early Warning System — decline in heat-related deaths attributed to IMD warnings 4. Andhra Pradesh State Disaster Management Authority (APSDMA) — heat-wave atlas, state heat action plan, mandal-level alerts 5. El Niño, Southern Oscillation and summer monsoon rainfall in India, MAUSAM (IMD) — El Niño–monsoon linkage 6. The Hindu, "A.P. and the next El Niño challenge" — 2015 death tolls, APSDMA's origin, post-2015 decline, May 2026 heatwave data