Evaluate the effectiveness of early warning systems in reducing heatwave mortality in India, citing state-level examples.

Heatwaves, though not a notified disaster under the Disaster Management Act, 2005, are managed by states through NDMA-guided Heat Action Plans (HAPs) [1]. Early warning systems (EWS) have measurably cut mortality, but their gains remain uneven and warning-dependent.

Demonstrated effectiveness

• Forecast to doorstep: IMD issues impact-based forecasts with colour-coded, district-level risk warnings, integrated since 2023 into an indigenous multi-hazard Decision Support System [2].
• Andhra Pradesh: the very strong El Niño year of 2015 caused 1,369 deaths in the state, of over 2,300 nationally; the resulting APSDMA now runs a heat-wave atlas, mandal-level alerts and a state HAP [4][6]. State tolls fell sharply thereafter — to 723 in 2016 and lower since [6].
• Gujarat: the Ahmedabad HAP (2013), South Asia's first, became the template NDMA extended to heat-wave-prone states [1].
• Officially, timely IMD warnings are credited with the national decline in heat-related deaths in recent years [3].

Limits to effectiveness

• Warning is not protection: alerts cannot shield outdoor labourers, the elderly and the urban poor who lack shade, water and cooling — mitigation, not messaging, is the binding constraint [1].
• Reactive institution-building: APSDMA was created after the 2015 tragedy, not in anticipation of it [6].
• Compounded climatic stress: El Niño weakens monsoon rainfall while intensifying heat [5]; despite alerts, A.P. recorded nine successive days above 44°C, peaking at 48.3°C, in May 2026 [6].
• Data gaps: heat-death certification and morbidity surveillance remain weak, obscuring true effectiveness [1].
• Coverage is thinner in rural mandals and among informal workers than in planned cities.

On balance, EWS have been India's most cost-effective heat intervention — the fall in Andhra Pradesh's toll is proof of institutional learning. Their next dividend lies in converting warnings into action: cool roofs, work-hour regulation, hydration points and heat-proofed primary health centres, advancing SDG-3 and SDG-13.