Evaluate the effectiveness of IMD's long-range forecasting system in enabling drought preparedness, with reference to the 2026 monsoon.

IMD's Long Range Forecast (LRF) comes in two stages, in April and at the end of May, and is followed by monthly outlooks. In 2026 India received 759.4 mm, which is 87% of the Long Period Average (LPA) and the weakest monsoon since 2015 [5]. The forecast called the national total correctly and early. It was much weaker at the regional and within-season scale, which is where drought actually hits.

Strengths: early and accurate at the national scale

• Early warning: the 13 April first-stage forecast signalled a below-normal season (92% of LPA ±5%) [1][5].
• Accurate revision: the 29 May update lowered this to 90% ±4% [2]. The actual 87% fell inside that band [5].
• Farm-relevant detail: the update warned that the Monsoon Core Zone, which covers most rain-fed farmland, would get below-normal rain [2].
• Forecast led to policy: the Agriculture Ministry and ICAR marked 315 vulnerable districts. Of these, 111 were high priority because under 25% of their farmland is irrigated. ICAR-CRIDA's District Agriculture Contingency Plans were activated [4].
• Monthly outlooks: the outlook issued at the end of June warned that July would be below normal, which helped decisions during the season [3].

Limitations: too coarse for a local disaster

• Regional miss: the May update expected Northeast India to be normal (94–106%) [2]. Instead, the East and Northeast had their driest monsoon since 1901 [5]. Rain-fed paddy farmers there got almost no warning.
• Scale mismatch: one national figure for four months cannot tell a district when the dry spells will come, and that timing decides whether sowing succeeds.
• Risk continues after September: El Niño is still strengthening and October rain is likely below 85% of LPA [5]. This threatens rabi sowing, but the seasonal forecast stops at September.
• Relief comes late: in the 2015 deficit year, relief such as a diesel subsidy, 50 extra MGNREGA workdays and fodder aid came only after the deficit had set in [6].

April LRF → May update → District risk list → DACPs → Relief
(national)  (regional)   (111/315 districts)  (ICAR)  (States)

Fig: Chain from forecast to preparedness. It is weakest at the district and relief stages.

Overall, the LRF worked well as a national early warning but only partly as a drought-preparedness tool. The next steps are:

• District-level extended-range forecasts built into the DACPs
• Relief that starts automatically when set forecast thresholds are crossed
• Faster irrigation under PMKSY in the 111 high-priority districts

Together these would turn accurate forecasts into real resilience, in line with the Sendai Framework and SDG 13.