Southwest monsoon ends with 12% deficit, October rain also likely below normal: IMD

Sourcing caveat: Both web searches failed because the domain filter was rejected, so nothing new came back from Tier 1 or Tier 2 sources. This note is therefore built on the fallback source, the newspaper article [1] (Tier 4). Any fact marked [unverified-static] is standard background from general knowledge that this retrieval did not confirm. Check those against IMD or MoES sources before relying on them.

1. At a Glance

• India's 2026 southwest monsoon (June–September) ended at 759.4 mm, 12.6% below the normal of 868.6 mm, which is 87% of the Long Period Average (LPA) [1].
• It is the driest monsoon since 2015 (758.2 mm) [1]. The East & Northeast region had its driest monsoon since 1901, the year IMD's systematic records begin [1].
• The deficit is linked to one of the strongest El Niño events in recent history [1]. This topic ties together monsoon dynamics, ENSO teleconnections, drought risk, kharif and rabi agriculture, and food inflation. It is a core GS-I and GS-III theme.
• Why it matters for UPSC: it tests how LPA works, how forecasts are made and how accurate they were, and how monsoon behaviour links to the economy.

2. Why in the News

• On 30 September 2026 the India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced the end-of-season total: 759.4 mm, 12.6% below normal [1].
• IMD also said October 2026 rainfall is likely to be below 85% of its LPA of about 75.4 mm, because El Niño is still strengthening [1].
• The monsoon is withdrawing and should fully exit in the first weeks of October. The northeast monsoon follows [1].

3. Background & Evolution

• Forecast path for 2026:
• IMD predicted a subdued monsoon from April 2026 onwards [1].
• 13 April 2026 (first-stage forecast): 92% of LPA, ±5% error [1].
• 29 May 2026 (updated forecast): lowered to 90% of LPA, ±4% error [1].

• 30 September 2026: actual rainfall was 87% of LPA, inside the May forecast range of 86–94% [1].

• Earlier comparable year: 2015, an El Niño year, which received 758.2 mm, slightly drier than 2026 [1].

• Record baseline: IMD's systematic rainfall records start in 1901 [1].
• [unverified-static] IMD was set up in 1875. It gives the monsoon forecast in two stages, in April and at the end of May/June.

4. Core Static Facts

• [unverified-static] IMD's rainfall categories for all-India seasonal rain: Deficient is below 90% of LPA; Below normal is 90–95%; Normal is 96–104%; Above normal is 105–110%; Excess is above 110%. On this scale, 87% counts as "deficient".
• [unverified-static] The current LPA is based on 1971–2020 rainfall data, roughly 87 cm.
• [unverified-static] IMD works under the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), not MoEFCC.

5. Multi-Dimensional Analysis

Scientific / Technological

• A strong El Niño usually weakens the Indian monsoon. 2026 follows that pattern, and IMD and global agencies saw it coming [1].
• Forecast skill was good: the final 87% fell inside the May 29 range of 90% ±4% [1]. The April range of 92% ±5% (87–97%) caught it only at the very edge.
• An El Niño that is still strengthening in October means the dry conditions could last beyond the monsoon season [1].

Economic

• A season at 87% of LPA puts kharif sowing, reservoir storage and the soil moisture needed for rabi at risk. This is an inference from the rainfall data [1].
• A below-normal October [1] may delay rabi sowing in regions that depend on rain. Possible knock-ons include pulses and oilseeds output and food inflation (analytical inference).

Regional / Social

• The East and Northeast, usually high-rainfall areas, had their driest monsoon on record [1]. That points to stress on rain-fed paddy and on smallholder farmers in states such as Assam, West Bengal, Bihar and Odisha (inference).
• October could be the exception in parts of northwest India, southern peninsular India, and isolated pockets of the east [1].

Environmental / Climate

• Record dryness in normally wet regions raises questions about how the monsoon's spatial pattern is shifting as the climate changes [1] (analysis).
• Deficits in the northeast affect water levels in the Brahmaputra basin, wetlands and hydropower (inference).

Administrative / Governance

• The accurate early forecasts from April and May [1] gave time for contingency crop plans, drought declarations and seed and fodder banks (governance inference).
• The northeast monsoon is coming [1], so Tamil Nadu, coastal Andhra Pradesh and Kerala need to prepare separately.

6. Recent Developments (last 12–18 months)

• 13 Apr 2026: IMD's first-stage forecast is 92% of LPA ±5% [1].
• 29 May 2026: IMD revises the forecast down to 90% of LPA ±4% [1].
• Jun–Sep 2026: the season ends at 759.4 mm (87% of LPA). The East and NE region is the driest since 1901 [1].
• 30 Sep 2026: IMD issues its end-of-season statement and October outlook, with October below 85% of its 75.4 mm LPA [1].
• Early Oct 2026 (expected): the southwest monsoon fully withdraws and the northeast monsoon begins [1].

7. Prelims Hooks

• The 2026 southwest monsoon rainfall was 759.4 mm, against a normal of 868.6 mm [1].
• 2026 monsoon rainfall was 87% of LPA, a 12.6% deficit [1].
• It is the lowest monsoon rainfall since 2015, when India received 758.2 mm [1].
• The East & Northeast region recorded 1,017.1 mm, its driest monsoon since 1901 [1].
• IMD's systematic rainfall records start in 1901 [1].
• IMD's April 13, 2026 forecast was 92% of LPA with a ±5% error band [1].
• IMD's May 29, 2026 forecast was 90% of LPA with a ±4% error band [1].
• The October all-India rainfall LPA is about 75.4 mm [1].
• October 2026 rainfall is forecast at below 85% of LPA [1].
• The deficit is attributed to one of the strongest El Niños in recent history [1].
• The IMD Director-General is Mrutyunjay Mohapatra [1].
• The monsoon is expected to withdraw completely in the first weeks of October 2026. The northeast monsoon comes next [1].
• [unverified-static] Rainfall below 90% of LPA is classified as "deficient" at the all-India level.

8. What the All-India Average Hides

• One national number can hide floods and drought in the same season
• By 27 July 2026, India as a whole was 16% short of rain [3].
• In that same period Assam was 30% short of rain. Yet floods hit 12 of its districts, affecting over 7 lakh people in 856 villages [3].

• The reason: El Niño makes the "break" periods (long dry gaps inside the monsoon) more frequent and longer. The rain that does come falls in short, heavy bursts [3].

• Most districts were worse off than the national figure suggests

• By late July, 53% of districts had deficient rain, 34% had normal rain and 12% had excess [3].
• A small number of very wet places pull the average up. Ladakh, for example, got 196% more rain than normal [3].

• So "87% of LPA" describes no single farmer's field. Always ask where the rain fell and when.

• The timing within the season mattered as much as the total

• June 2026 ended 40% short of rain [4], and June is when kharif sowing starts.
• By 10 July, farmers had sown 53.13 million hectares, against 63.27 million hectares a year earlier. That is 16% less [2].
• Rain that comes late in August or September cannot bring back a sowing window that has already closed.

9. Why Low Irrigation, Not Low Rain Alone, Decides Who Suffers

• The government's own risk list is built on irrigation, not rainfall
• On 23 June 2026, the Agriculture Ministry and ICAR (Indian Council of Agricultural Research) flagged 111 high-priority districts [2].
• What these districts share is that less than 25% of their farmland is irrigated. The crop depends almost fully on rain [2].

• Of these 111 districts, 69 were already rainfall-deficient, and 12 were "large deficient", meaning more than 60% short [2].

• The worst-hit districts are in places we think of as wet

• Longleng in Nagaland got 0.2 mm of rain against a normal of 439.7 mm, a 99% shortfall [2].
• Seven of Assam's 8 flagged districts and 5 of Nagaland's 6 were deficient [2].

• Rain-fed farming in the Northeast was never planned for a dry year, because dry years hardly ever came. This is why the region's record-low rain [1] hurts so much.

• The same deficit costs very different amounts in different places

• A 12% shortfall in an irrigated Punjab district is a water bill. In a district with under 25% irrigation, it is a failed crop.
• So for an answer on drought impact, count irrigated area along with rainfall.

10. Why Drought Relief Rules Can Miss a Year Like This

• Relief rules use fixed cut-off points
• A past central relief scheme for a deficit monsoon covered only areas with more than 50% rain shortfall as of 15 July. It also covered areas with a 60% or bigger shortfall over any continuous 15 days after the monsoon arrived [5].

• Assam's shortfall was 30% by late July [3]. That is serious enough to cut sowing, but it falls far below a 50% rule.

• Floods and drought in one district confuse the paperwork

• Assam had flood relief running in 12 districts while it was short of rain overall [3].

• A district can be counted as "flood-affected" and still lose its paddy to long dry gaps. Rules built for one disaster at a time handle this badly.

• The fix the rules already allow

• The 15-day dry-spell rule [5] lets state governments act during the season. They do not have to wait for the season-end total on 30 September.
• The 111-district list [2] shows the Centre can name at-risk districts in advance. Relief could then be tied to that list instead of waiting for a later declaration.

11. A Good Seasonal Forecast Is Not a Useful Farm Forecast

• IMD got the season total right

• The final 87% of LPA fell inside the May forecast range [1]. For the national total, the forecast worked.

• But farmers needed a different forecast

• IMD's April and May forecasts give one number for all of India, for four months [1].
• A farmer in Nagaland needs to know two things: will June be dry here, and when will the long dry gaps come?

• June was 40% short [4], and El Niño makes these dry gaps longer [3]. The seasonal number could not tell anyone that.

• What should follow

• The Agriculture Ministry and ICAR already turned the April signal into a district list [2]. The next step is district-level crop plans that match that list: which short-duration or drought-hardy seed to keep ready, and for which district.
• IMD should give more weight to its within-season outlooks, the forecasts for the next few weeks. Timing is what decides whether sowing succeeds.

12. El Niño Explains the Total, Not the Pattern

• The strongest argument: nothing unusual happened
• 2015 was also an El Niño year, and its total was almost the same as 2026 (758.2 mm against 759.4 mm) [1].

• A weak monsoon in a strong El Niño year is what textbooks predict. On this view, the 2026 total needs no extra explanation.

• What this argument gets right

• For the all-India total, it is correct. The 2026 total sits where El Niño years usually sit.

• What it leaves out

• It cannot explain where the rain failed. The East & Northeast had their driest monsoon since 1901, while Ladakh got nearly three times its normal rain [1][3].
• Western disturbances are winter weather systems from the west. They stayed unusually active during the monsoon months, which caused heavy Himalayan rain and landslides [3].
• Experts say global warming makes both the heavy-rain spells and the dry spells more extreme [3].
• Fair conclusion: El Niño explains how much rain fell. It does not fully explain how unevenly that rain was spread.

13. Why the Trouble Can Outlast the Monsoon

• El Niño is still getting stronger
• Forecasters gave an 81% chance of a "super" El Niño in October–December 2026 [3]. A super El Niño is a very strong one.

• IMD already expects October rain below 85% of normal [1].

• What this means for rabi

• Rabi sowing in rain-fed areas depends on moisture left in the soil after the monsoon.
• A dry June hurt kharif sowing [4]. A dry October can now hurt rabi sowing as well, so the same districts may lose two crops.
• The same 111 low-irrigation districts [2] should be the first place state agriculture departments send rabi seed and water-saving support.

14. Anchors for Answers

• Data: 87% of LPA (759.4 mm); driest monsoon since 2015; East & NE driest since 1901 [1]
• Data: Kharif sown area 53.13 million ha by 10 July 2026, against 63.27 million ha a year earlier, down 16% [2]
• Data: 53% of districts rain-deficient by late July 2026, while Assam had floods in 12 districts [3]
• Report/Committee: Agriculture Ministry–ICAR list of 111 high-priority El Niño districts, all with irrigation below 25% (23 June 2026) [2]
• Law/Case: Past central deficit-monsoon relief rules: more than 50% rain shortfall by 15 July, or a 60% shortfall over any 15-day dry spell [5]
• Comparison: 2015 El Niño monsoon, 758.2 mm, almost the same total as 2026 [1]
• Scheme: Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchayee Yojana (irrigation expansion); links to the under-25% irrigation fault line

15. Mains Relevance

• GS-I (Geography): important geophysical phenomena; the mechanism of the Indian monsoon; ENSO and IOD.
• GS-III (Economy/Agriculture): cropping patterns, irrigation, agricultural marketing, food security and inflation.
• GS-III (Disaster Management): drought as a slow-onset disaster, forecasting and preparedness.
• Possible question stems: 1. El Niño years do not always translate into monsoon failure, yet 2026 recorded the lowest rainfall since 2015. Examine the role of ENSO and other ocean-atmosphere drivers in Indian monsoon variability. (250 words) 2. The Northeast recorded its driest monsoon since 1901 in 2026. Discuss the implications of shifting spatial patterns of monsoon rainfall for agriculture and water security in India. 3. Evaluate the effectiveness of IMD's long-range forecasting system in enabling drought preparedness, with reference to the 2026 monsoon.

16. Related Topics to Study Next

• ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) and the Southern Oscillation: the main driver of the 2026 deficit.
• Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and MJO: other drivers that can offset or deepen El Niño's effect.
• Northeast (retreating) monsoon: it follows the SW monsoon's exit and matters for Tamil Nadu's rabi season.
• Monsoon withdrawal and "October heat": the mechanism behind the retreating monsoon.
• Drought declaration process (Manual for Drought Management): how the administration responds to a deficient monsoon.
• IMD's forecasting system (Monsoon Mission, statistical and dynamical models): needed to judge forecast accuracy.
• Kharif and rabi crop cycles and MSP: the economic channel through which the deficit is felt.
• Food inflation and RBI monetary policy: how the monsoon feeds into CPI.

17. Common Errors / Trap Areas

• "12%" vs "12.6%": the headline rounds the figure; the precise deficit is 12.6% [1]. Also, 87% of LPA does not mean a 13% deficit exactly; check what the question is actually asking.
• LPA vs normal range: the June–Sept LPA is 868.6 mm [1]. Don't confuse it with the October LPA of 75.4 mm [1] or with older LPA figures such as 88 or 89 cm from earlier base periods [unverified-static].
• Driest year: 2026 is the driest since 2015, not the driest ever. 2015 was slightly drier, at 758.2 mm [1]. Only the East & NE region set a record since 1901 [1].
• Parent ministry: IMD comes under MoES, not MoEFCC or the Ministry of Agriculture [unverified-static].
• Forecast dates: the first-stage forecast was April 13 and the update was May 29 [1]. Don't mix these up with the monsoon onset date.