Examine how China's dominance over rare-earth processing has reshaped global supply-chain diplomacy, and assess India's diversification strategy.

Rare earths and other critical minerals are the raw material of the green and digital economies, and processing capacity for them is concentrated overwhelmingly in one country. India's response, articulated at the 18th BRICS Summit in New Delhi that "no country should weaponise critical minerals, technology or supply chains" [1][2], shows how resource concentration has become a diplomatic question rather than a purely commercial one.

How Chinese dominance has reshaped supply-chain diplomacy

• From efficiency to security: China processes the bulk of the world's rare-earth magnets; tightened export controls since 2025 turned a cost advantage into leverage, pushing states to treat sourcing as strategic rather than market-driven.
• Rise of "de-risking" plurilateralism: partnerships such as the Quad critical minerals initiative and G-7 ministerial engagement on resilient mineral supply chains [2] now sit alongside the WTO framework.
• Coercion without naming: India's caution was delivered inside BRICS without naming any member [1], illustrating how supply-chain diplomacy is conducted through veiled signalling to preserve bloc cohesion.
• Institution-building: the BRICS New Delhi Declaration's resilience agenda, including logistics and supply-chain cooperation [3], reflects the search for collective buffers against unilateral restrictions.

Assessing India's diversification strategy

• Domestic value chain: the National Critical Mineral Mission (Ministry of Mines, 2025) commits about Rs. 16,300 crore plus expected PSU investment of Rs. 18,000 crore over seven years, covering exploration, mining, beneficiation, processing and recovery [4].
• Legal enablement: MMDR Act amendments allow auction of critical mineral blocks and private participation, addressing India's thin exploration base [4].
• External sourcing: bilateral mineral cooperation, including with Brazil, spreads risk across geographies.
• Limits: India remains import-dependent in refining and magnet-making, and gestation periods in mining are long, so results will be medium-term.

India's approach sensibly combines domestic capability with plural partnerships instead of confrontation. Accelerating processing and recycling capacity, and anchoring mineral diplomacy in the BRICS resilience agenda, can convert today's vulnerability into durable strategic autonomy.