Examine how the rise and fall of right-wing populism in developed democracies affects India's interests, particularly its diaspora and migration agenda.

Right-wing populism started its latest rise after the 2008 financial crisis. It blames a self-serving "globalist" elite and treats immigrants and foreigners as a second "enemy of the people" [1]. The U.S. is now India's largest source of remittances [2]. So both the rise of this politics and its possible retreat bear directly on India's diaspora, its economy and its strategic interests.

Impact of the rise

• Mobility squeeze: when anti-immigrant politics becomes policy, visas and work permits get tighter. Fewer Indian students and professionals can then go abroad.
• Remittance exposure: the U.S. share of India's inward remittances rose to 27.7% in 2023-24, out of a total of USD 118.7 billion [2]. A curb in one country now hurts India more than it used to.
• Diaspora security: when foreigners are cast as the enemy [1], identity polarisation grows and Indian communities abroad become more vulnerable. Consular and community-welfare support has to expand.
• Protectionism: hostility to "globalism" [1] tends to fuel tariffs and curbs on outsourcing, which threatens India's services exports.
• Demonstration effect: U.S. power made populism look legitimate elsewhere, and Washington backed the Bolsonaros, Bukele and Orbán [1]. Populists then shape the multilateral order India has to work within.

Impact of the retreat

• Opening: the Republicans' historic 2026 midterm defeat [1] may weaken populism's claim to legitimacy abroad. That creates room to negotiate skilled-mobility pathways.
• Limits: populism "surfaces from time to time" [1]. People across OECD countries still feel they have little political voice [3], and low trust feeds support for extreme views [4]. The hard line on immigration may therefore continue under both U.S. parties.
• Domestic lesson: it is still unclear where the anger of young protesters in India and elsewhere will go politically [1]. That makes jobs at home and responsive institutions a strategic need.

Way forward

• Diversify migration corridors through mobility partnership agreements with Europe, the Gulf and East Asia.
• Engage both U.S. parties on the diaspora's interests.
• Align skilling with global labour shortages.

Populism's ups and downs abroad change the risks for Indians abroad, but its causes remain. India should plan for both phases of the cycle. It can do this by protecting its diaspora, diversifying where its people work, and building "Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam"-style mobility partnerships, so that a protectionist turn in any one country hurts less.