"Forecasting the magnitude, rather than the direction, of monsoon failure remains IMD's central challenge in El Niño years." Discuss with reference to the 2026 monsoon.

In its first-stage forecast on 13 April 2026, the IMD had already called a 'below normal' monsoon at 92% of LPA, because models showed El Niño developing [1]. The season ended at 87%, which is 'deficient' [4]. The IMD got the direction right but underestimated how bad the shortfall would be, which supports the statement.

Why the direction is easier to forecast

• ENSO teleconnection: when the central-eastern equatorial Pacific warms, the monsoon circulation weakens. Strong El Niño conditions were in place by August [3].
• This ocean signal lasts for months, so the IMD's Monsoon Mission model (MMCFS) picked it up two months before the season began [1].

Why the magnitude is still hard to forecast: what 2026 showed

• Wrong category: the May update gave 90% ±4% and labelled it 'below normal'. Yet its own table gave a 60% chance of 'deficient' [2].
• Error band too wide: 92% ±5% covers 87–97%, which spans three categories. The final 87% sat at the very edge of that range [1][4].
• Monthly miss: the June forecast was <92%, but actual rainfall was 65%. That shortfall fell right in the kharif sowing window [2][4].
• Regional miss: Northeast India was forecast 'normal' [2]. It got 74% of LPA, and East & Northeast India together had their lowest rainfall since 1901 [4].

The counter-view

• The IMD says its seasonal forecast was "within the forecast error limit" [4]. It had also advised contingency planning for agriculture and water [2].
• Rainfall in the monsoon core zone ended just below the lower limit of the normal range (779.9 mm vs 782.8 mm) [4]. So the forecast was not badly wrong everywhere.

Way forward

• When the forecast number sits on a category boundary, lead with the most likely category and its probability.
• Feed the IMD's existing extended-range forecasts and agromet advisories directly into district drought plans [3].
• Judge the Monsoon Mission by what it helps decision-makers do, building on NCAER's study of its economic benefits [5].

The 2026 monsoon shows that the IMD can now reliably tell whether the monsoon will fail, but not by how much, when, or where. Two changes would turn a "technically accurate" forecast into a useful early warning: communicating forecasts as calibrated probabilities, and improving skill at the monthly and regional scale. Both would advance SDG 2 (food security) and SDG 13 (climate resilience).