Season’s end

1. At a Glance

• The 2026 southwest monsoon (June–September) ended with 759 mm of rain across India. That is 87% of the normal 869 mm, which puts the season in 'deficient' territory (below 90%). [1]
• It was an El Niño year. The article describes it as "one of the strongest El Niño ever", and global forecasters all agreed it was coming. [1]
• The editorial's main argument is that the IMD was too conservative. It forecast 'below normal' (90–95% of average) even though its own models pointed to 'deficient' (<90%). [1]
• Why it matters for UPSC: monsoon forecasting, ENSO and the monsoon, the LPA category system, and regional rainfall variation all feed into GS-I geography, GS-III agriculture and the economy, and disaster preparedness.

2. Why in the News

• On 30 September 2026, the IMD closed the monsoon tally at 759 mm, 87% of the 869 mm normal. [1]
• The Hindu's editorial "Season's end" (Chennai print edition, 2 October 2026, p. 12) criticised how conservative the IMD's forecast was, and how far off its monthly and regional forecasts were. [1]
• The northeast recorded its driest monsoon since 1901, 26% short, even though the IMD had forecast a 'normal' season there. [1]

3. Background & Evolution

• Forecasting process: the IMD issues two forecasts before the monsoon, in April and May. [1]
• 2026 setup: both forecasts "unambiguously pointed to a dry monsoon". Confidence came from global agreement that a strong El Niño was coming, so the real question was "How bad?" [1]
• What El Niño does: the Central Equatorial Pacific warms, and this suppresses monsoon rains over India. [1]
• Why El Niño years are hard to forecast: predicting that there will be a shortfall is relatively easy. Predicting how big it will be is the difficult part. [1]
• Background (not from the sources I retrieved; check before relying on it): the IMD was set up in 1875 and works under the Ministry of Earth Sciences.

4. Core Static Facts

Item	Fact
Season total, 2026	759 mm [1]
Normal (LPA)	869 mm [1]
Season as % of normal	87% [1]
IMD seasonal forecast	'Below normal', 90–95% of average [1]
What IMD models indicated	'Deficient', <90% [1]
Forecast error window	4–5% [1]
Number of pre-season forecasts	2 (April and May) [1]
End of season tally	30 September [1]

Monthly forecast vs actual, 2026 [1]

Month	Forecast	Actual (% of LPA)
June	92%	65%
July	Below 94%	1 percentage point more rain than the forecast mark (about 95%)
August	Below 94%	84%
September	Below 91%	92.4%

Regional outcomes [1]

• Northeast India: forecast 'normal'. Actual: 26% deficit, the driest since 1901.
• South Peninsula: 23% deficit.
• Central and Northwest India: the excerpt is cut off at this point, so I have no figures.

IMD rainfall categories (background, not from the sources I retrieved; check before relying on them): Deficient <90%; Below normal 90–95%; Normal 96–104%; Above normal 105–110%; Excess >110% of LPA.

5. Multi-Dimensional Analysis

Scientific / Technological

• The IMD got the direction right (a dry monsoon) but the size of the shortfall wrong. Its seasonal number is only a "technical victory" because 87% falls inside the error window. [1]
• The monthly misses were large. June's forecast was off by 27 percentage points (92% forecast, 65% actual). [1]
• The regional miss in the northeast (forecast normal, worst result since 1901) shows that skill at the regional scale is the weak link. [1]

Governance / Ethical

• The editorial calls it "perplexing" that the IMD forecast 'below normal' when its own models showed 'deficient'. This raises questions about how risk is communicated and whether the IMD was being institutionally cautious. [1]
• A softer forecast can delay contingency planning by states and agriculture departments.

Economic

• The deficit was concentrated in June (65%), which is when kharif sowing happens. Sowing, reservoir storage, and rural demand are all exposed to the shortfall. [1]
• The south peninsula deficit of 23% matters for rabi irrigation and drinking-water storage in the southern states. [1]

Environmental / Geographical

• ENSO and monsoon teleconnection: Pacific warming suppresses Indian rainfall. [1]
• The deficits were spread unevenly across regions, with the northeast and the south peninsula worst hit. [1]

Administrative

• Accurate monthly and regional forecasts matter more for district-level drought declaration and crop contingency plans than the all-India seasonal number does. [1]

6. Recent Developments (last 12–18 months)

• April and May 2026: the IMD's two pre-monsoon forecasts both indicated a dry monsoon, rated 'below normal' (90–95%). [1]
• June 2026: rainfall was 65% of normal, against a 92% forecast. [1]
• August 2026: rainfall was 84% of the LPA. [1]
• September 2026: rainfall was 92.4%. [1]
• 30 September 2026: the season closed at 759 mm, 87% of 869 mm. [1]
• 2 October 2026: The Hindu published the editorial "Season's end". [1]

7. Prelims Hooks

• The IMD issues two pre-monsoon long-range forecasts, in April and May. [1]
• 2026 monsoon total: 759 mm. [1]
• Normal all-India monsoon rainfall used for 2026: 869 mm. [1]
• The 2026 monsoon ended at 87% of normal. [1]
• IMD's 2026 seasonal forecast: 'below normal', 90–95%. [1]
• 'Deficient' means rainfall below 90% of average. [1]
• El Niño means the Central Equatorial Pacific warms, which suppresses the Indian monsoon. [1]
• IMD's forecast error window: 4–5%. [1]
• June 2026 rainfall: 65% of normal, the driest month of the season. [1]
• Northeast India, 2026: driest monsoon since 1901, with a 26% deficit. [1]
• South Peninsula, 2026: 23% deficit. [1]
• The monsoon tally officially closes on 30 September. [1]

8. Did the IMD Really Hide the Risk? The Case For and Against

• The strongest defence of the IMD: it did warn of a deficient season
• In its May 29 update, the IMD cut its forecast to 90% of LPA (LPA, or Long Period Average, is the long-term normal rainfall) [3].
• In the same update it said there was a 60% chance of a 'deficient' season (below 90%) [3].

• So a careful reader of the full release had the warning in hand. The IMD did not stay silent.

• The answer: the label said one thing and the probability said another

• 90% sits exactly on the line between 'below normal' and 'deficient'.
• A 60% chance means the IMD itself thought 'deficient' was more likely than not [3]. Even so, the headline category it announced was 'below normal' [1].

• Most users, such as farmers, state departments and the media, act on the one-word category and not the probability table. That is why the editorial calls the choice "perplexing" [1].

• What is fair to the IMD

• It got the direction right in April, when it forecast 92% of LPA [2]. In May it moved the number down, the right way [3].
• The failure was in how it communicated the forecast, not in the science that said rains would be short.

9. Why "Within the Error Band" Proves Very Little

• The April error band was wide enough to cover three categories at once
• April forecast: 92% of LPA, with a model error of ±5% [2]. The range is 87% to 97%.
• That one range covers 'deficient' (<90%), 'below normal' (90–95%) and part of 'normal' (96–104%).

• A forecast that fits almost any result cannot be counted as a success just because the result landed inside it.

• The actual result fell at the very edge

• The season ended at 87% [1], which is the bottom of the April range [2].

• This is why the editorial calls it only a "technical victory" [1].

• How to use this in an answer

• Do not judge a seasonal forecast only by whether the final number falls inside the error band.
• Ask whether it put the season in the right category, because the category is what decides planning.

10. Why the All-India Number Is the Least Useful Forecast

• Farmers sow by the month, not by the season
• June forecast: 92%. June actual: 65% [1].

• June is the kharif sowing window. A 27-point miss in that month hurts more than a small miss in the seasonal total.

• The one region forecast as 'normal' did the worst

• The northeast was the only region given a 'normal' forecast. It ended with its driest monsoon since 1901, 26% short [1].

• A state that trusted the regional forecast had no reason to start drought planning early.

• The tools for checking the forecast during the season already exist

• Under the National Monsoon Mission (the government programme to build better Indian weather models), the IMD runs models for extended range forecasts, 10 to 30 days ahead. One of them is the Monsoon Mission Climate Forecasting System (MMCFS) [5].
• These give rolling 7-day average forecasts for the next four weeks [5].
• So the weak point is not the lack of a tool. It is that the April–May seasonal label gets most of the public attention, while these shorter, more useful forecasts get little.

11. What Should Change Before the Next El Niño

• The IMD should put the probability in the headline, not in the fine print
• In 2026 the 60% chance of a deficient season sat behind a 'below normal' label [3].

• When the point forecast sits on a category boundary, the IMD should lead with the most likely category. Here that was 'deficient'.

• States should plan on the risk, not on the category label

• The May update already gave a 60% chance of deficit [3]. That was reason enough for agriculture departments to prepare seed and fodder reserves and alternative-crop plans.

• Waiting for the season's final numbers means acting after the sowing window has closed.

• Treat regional and monthly forecasts as the main product

• The IMD already issues a monthly outlook along with its updated seasonal forecast [4], and it runs extended range forecasts [5].

• These should feed directly into district contingency plans, since that is where the 2026 misses did the damage (June and the northeast) [1].

• Judge the Monsoon Mission by how much it helps decisions, not by model scores alone

• The government had NCAER (National Council of Applied Economic Research) estimate the economic benefits of its investment in the Monsoon Mission and high-performance computing [6].
• Future reviews should ask a plainer question: did the forecast change what farmers and states actually did in time?

12. Anchors for Answers

• Data: IMD's first-stage forecast (13 April 2026) was 92% of LPA, with a ±5% model error [2]
• Data: The May 2026 update cut this to 90% of LPA, with a 60% chance of a deficient season [3]
• Data: 2026 actual rainfall was 87% of LPA. June was 65%, and the northeast had its driest season since 1901 [1]
• Report/Committee: NCAER, Estimating the economic benefits of Investment in Monsoon Mission and High Performance Computing [6]
• Scheme: National Monsoon Mission (Ministry of Earth Sciences). It developed MMCFS and the extended range forecasts (10–30 days) now used by the IMD [5]

13. Mains Relevance

• GS-I: Important geophysical phenomena; distribution of climate, the Indian monsoon, and ENSO.
• GS-III: Agriculture (cropping patterns, irrigation); disaster management (drought); science and technology (weather modelling).
• Possible question stems: 1. "Forecasting the magnitude, rather than the direction, of monsoon failure remains IMD's central challenge in El Niño years." Discuss with reference to the 2026 monsoon. 2. Examine how the uneven distribution of monsoon deficits across months and regions undermines the usefulness of an all-India seasonal forecast for agricultural planning. 3. Explain the teleconnection between ENSO and the Indian summer monsoon. Why do El Niño years not always translate into droughts of the same severity?

14. Related Topics to Study Next

• ENSO, La Niña and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD): these are the main drivers of how much the monsoon varies from year to year.
• The IMD's Long Period Average (LPA) and its rainfall categories: you need these to read any monsoon forecast.
• The Monsoon Mission and dynamical forecasting models: this is the technology behind the IMD's forecast skill.
• Drought declaration (the Manual for Drought Management): this is how a deficit turns into administrative relief.
• Kharif sowing and food inflation: these are the economic channels through which a monsoon shortfall reaches the wider economy.
• The Northeast Monsoon (October–December): this decides whether the south peninsula's 23% deficit can be made up.
• Climate change and monsoon variability: this covers trends in extreme and erratic rainfall.

15. Common Errors / Trap Areas

• Confusing 'below normal' (90–95%) with 'deficient' (<90%). In 2026 the IMD forecast the first and the outcome was the second. [1]
• Where El Niño warming happens: it is the Central/Eastern Equatorial Pacific, not the Indian Ocean. Warming in the Indian Ocean is the IOD. [1]
• Assuming the all-India figure applies everywhere. The 87% national figure hides a 26% deficit in the northeast and a 23% deficit in the south peninsula. [1]
• Number of forecasts: there are two pre-season forecasts (April and May), not one. [1]
• Mixing up the two monsoons: the season ending on 30 September is the southwest monsoon. The northeast monsoon is a separate season (Oct–Dec), and it is different from "northeast India" as a region.