India's social protection coverage, as certified by the ILO, has grown from 19% to over 64% in a decade. Critically examine the methodological basis of this claim and its implications for informal-sector welfare policy.

India's social protection coverage rose from 19% in 2015 to 64.3% in 2025, with over 94 crore people covered under at least one benefit, published on the ILO's ILOSTAT dashboard [1]. While the scale is genuine, the figure's methodology invites careful scrutiny before it becomes the yardstick of informal-sector welfare.

Methodological strengths

• International validation: coverage was computed under ILO norms, requiring schemes to be legislatively backed, cash-based and active, with three years of verified time-series data — filtering out paper schemes [1].
• Verifiable administrative base: enrolment rests on auditable records — PMSBY 51.06 crore, PMJJBY 23.63 crore, APY 7.66 crore subscribers as of April 2025 [2].
• Demonstrated benefit flow: PMJJBY has settled ₹18,397.92 crore across 9.19 lakh claims, showing the architecture actually pays out [2].

Methodological limitations

• Enrolment ≠ realisation: 51 crore PMSBY enrolments against 1.57 lakh settled claims shows "coverage" measures registration, not effective protection [2].
• Incomplete exercise: the figure captures only Phase I of the data-pooling exercise; the widely cited "100 crore" is a projected Phase II outcome, not an achieved count [1].
• Definitional breadth: counting anyone with at least one benefit conflates a ₹20-premium accident cover with comprehensive protection, and risks double-counting across overlapping schemes [1][2].
• Adequacy unmeasured: APY's ₹1,000–5,000 monthly pension is a floor, not income security against inflation [2].

Policy implications

• Shift metrics from enrolment counts to claim ratios, adequacy and continuity of contribution.
• Complete Phase II pooling and integrate state schemes and e-Shram data for a genuinely universal informal-worker registry.
• Operationalise the Code on Social Security, 2020 to convert enrolment-based coverage into rights-based entitlement.

The ILO certification is a credible marker of India's fastest-in-the-world expansion in social protection, and its transparency deserves recognition. The next decade's task is to deepen what has been widened — moving from breadth of enrolment to adequacy of benefit, realising the ILO's Social Protection Floor vision and SDG 1.3 in substance, not merely in count.