Natural gas is a bridge fuel, but it also risks carbon lock-in. Critically analyse in light of India's 15% gas-share target.

India aims to raise natural gas's share of its energy mix from about 6.3% to 15% by 2030 [1]. Gas is a bridge fuel: it cuts emissions while renewables scale up. The risk is carbon lock-in, where pipelines, terminals and decade-long contracts outlast that purpose.

Gas as a bridge fuel

• Cleaner than coal and oil: NITI Aayog backs LNG for medium and heavy trucks, where electric trucks still cost far more [3].
• Large gap to close: India's gas share is about 6%, against a global average of about 24% [2].
• Firming renewables: gas plants can ramp up fast to back up solar and wind. But the Parliamentary committee found that high fuel costs have limited gas supply to the power sector [2].
• Cleaner air: piped gas for cooking and CNG for transport reduce urban and indoor pollution.

Where lock-in risk arises

• Long-lived assets: India has 8 regasification terminals (52.7 MMTPA) [5] and plans 70 mtpa by 2030 [3]. These assets are built to run for decades, beyond the bridge period.
• Contract rigidity: long-term deals such as the 10-year ADNOC–Gujarat Energy SPA from 2028 [6] usually carry take-or-pay terms. Buyers must pay even if renewables and storage become cheaper.
• Import dependence: gas imports rose from 13 MT to 27 MT between 2014-15 and 2024-25. LNG demand is projected to pass 40 MT by 2030, which exposes India to price volatility [2].
• Price-sensitive demand: affordable pricing decides whether the target is met [4]. Costly gas risks stranded assets.
• Methane leakage along the supply chain can erode gas's climate advantage.

Assessment

• The lock-in risk is real but manageable. The answer is to target gas where it fits, not to reject it.
• Gas should go to hard-to-electrify uses (fertiliser, heavy trucking, city gas, peaking power), not baseload power that renewables can supply.
• Contracts should have price-review clauses, moderate tenures and suppliers from different countries.
• Pipelines should be built so they can later carry biogas or hydrogen blends, which reduces stranding risk.

On balance, gas is a bridge only if it has a planned end point. A targeted, flexible push to 15% can lower emissions and protect energy security without locking India into fossil fuels. That keeps it consistent with Net Zero by 2070 and SDGs 7 and 13.