Over-dependence on a single export market is a structural vulnerability. Discuss in the context of India's trade strategy since 2025.

When a large share of a country's exports goes to one buyer, that buyer's policy shocks pass straight into the country's output, jobs and foreign-exchange earnings. India's path since 2025 bears this out. US tariff shocks were followed by a record $49.47 billion in merchandise exports in October 2026, which the government credits to diversification [1].

Why single-market dependence is a structural vulnerability

• Policy shocks pass straight through: the US tariff regime from April 2025 left Indian exporters exposed to one government's decisions [2].
• Visible damage: October 2025 exports fell to about $34 billion, as implied by the 45% growth reported a year later [1].
• Employment risk: apparel and textiles are among India's key US-bound categories [2], so a shock there hits labour-intensive MSMEs.
• Bargaining asymmetry: a dominant buyer gains leverage in trade negotiations.

India's trade strategy since 2025

• Market diversification: 43 of the top 50 destinations posted growth in October 2026. The Commerce Secretary called the growth "broad-based across countries and regions" [1].
• FTA push: the India–New Zealand FTA extends a run of agreements that open alternative markets [4].
• Policy framework: Foreign Trade Policy 2023 targets $2 trillion in exports by 2030 through trade facilitation and e-commerce export hubs [3].
• Evidence-based monitoring: NITI Aayog's Trade Watch Quarterly tracks India's competitiveness product by product [2].

Limits of the diversification story

• Forced, not chosen: the redirection came under tariff pressure. NITI found India poised to gain competitiveness in 22 of the top 30 US product categories [2], so leaving that market has an opportunity cost.
• Product concentration: petroleum products drove much of the surge [1]. India has swapped market risk for commodity-price risk.
• Deficit persists: imports also hit a record $89.35 billion. The overall trade deficit fell from $25.1 billion to $20.1 billion, helped substantially by services [1].

India's response shows that spreading exports across markets builds resilience. That resilience will last only if diversification extends from markets to products. The way forward is to use NITI's product-level analysis to steer FTA negotiations, raise non-oil manufactured exports, and keep strategic access to the US. Together these would turn a forced response into the resilient, broad-based growth that the FTP 2023 vision aims for.