With the space economy at about US$9 bn against a US$44 bn target for 2033, what structural constraints must India address?

The 24 June 2020 reforms opened the entire space value chain to private firms and created IN-SPACe. Yet India's space economy has grown only from about US$8.4 bn (2023) to about US$9 bn (2026) [1]. Reaching US$44 bn by 2033 needs about 25% growth a year, against about 2% so far. The gap comes from the structure of the sector, not from a lack of intent.

Structural constraints

• More firms, little revenue: space start-ups grew from 1 (2014) to about 440 [1], but most are still at the prototype stage. Future growth must come mainly from downstream services, such as data and navigation [1].
• Thin risk capital: the ₹1,000 crore VC Fund aims to back only about 40 start-ups over up to five years [2]. The ₹500 crore TAF caps support at ₹25 crore per project [1].
• Regulator is not independent: IN-SPACe works under DoS, which also runs ISRO and NSIL [1]. Private firms are regulated by the same department that runs their state-owned competitors.
• No law behind authorisation: permission rests on the 2020 Cabinet decision, Indian Space Policy 2023 and the 2024 NGP [1][3]. With no Act of Parliament, investors have less certainty and refused firms have no statutory appeal. India's duty under Article VI of the Outer Space Treaty also rests only on policy.
• Dependence on state infrastructure: even Vikram-1, India's first privately built orbital rocket, flew from ISRO's Sriharikota site with state clearances [4].
• Unclear terms of technology transfer: PSLV-XL production is going to the HAL–L&T consortium [1], but the transfer terms are not published. The Antrix–Devas case, where CAG faulted DoS [5], shows the risk of a commercial arm inside DoS with no outside check.

Addressing them

• Pass a space-activities Act that gives IN-SPACe legal powers, time limits for decisions and an appeal body.
• Separate the regulator from ISRO and NSIL in practice: publish how long each authorisation takes and set clear rules for sharing Sriharikota launch slots.
• Use public funds to attract private capital, including through automatic-route FDI of 74%, 49% or 100% depending on the segment [1].
• Publish technology-transfer terms and allow periodic CAG audits.
• Track revenue and jobs by segment, not just the number of start-ups.

India has built the basic institutions of a market-led space sector, but scale needs legal certainty, an independent regulator and deeper capital. A statutory, transparent framework would turn start-up numbers into revenue. It would put the US$44 bn goal within reach, in line with SDG 9 and an Atmanirbhar space economy.