While the worst-case climate scenario has been ruled out, scientists caution against optimism. In this context, analyse India's vulnerabilities and the adequacy of its current NDCs under the Paris Agreement.

Q. While the worst-case climate scenario has been ruled out, scientists caution against optimism. In this context, analyse India's vulnerabilities and the adequacy of its current NDCs under the Paris Agreement. (15 marks, 250-350 words)

The retirement of the RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5 pathway from the scenario set feeding IPCC's Seventh Assessment Report marks genuine mitigation progress, driven by collapsing renewable costs and real climate policy. Yet the replacement "High" scenario still projects about 3.5°C by 2100, and no pathway now avoids overshooting 1.5°C [1]. For India, this shifts the challenge from averting catastrophe to managing severe, near-certain risk.

Why caution outweighs optimism - The new High scenario yields ~3.5°C, and warming could still exceed 4°C given uncertainty in climate sensitivity [1]. - Even the lowest pathway overshoots 1.5°C by 0.2–0.3°C before returning by 2100 [1]. - Current policies globally track ~2.8°C, and the latest round of NDCs has barely moved the needle on projected warming [2].

India's vulnerabilities - Monsoon disruption: summer monsoon rainfall declined roughly 6% between 1951 and 2015, sharpest over the Indo-Gangetic plains and Western Ghats — directly hitting rainfed agriculture [3]. - Ocean and coasts: the tropical Indian Ocean warmed about 1°C during 1951–2015 against a 0.7°C global average, intensifying cyclones and sea-level risk for Mumbai, Chennai and the Sundarbans [3]. - Heat and livelihoods: rising heat stress burdens outdoor labour, water security and power demand; adaptation-linked spending already rose to 5.6% of GDP by FY22 [4].

Adequacy of the NDCs - Strengths: non-fossil sources reached 51.93% of installed capacity by December 2025, ahead of the 2030 target [4]; the NDC for 2031–35 raises the emissions-intensity cut to 47% from 2005 levels and the carbon sink to 3.5–4.0 billion tonnes CO₂e [5]. - Gaps: targets remain intensity-based rather than absolute, adaptation commitments are largely qualitative, and delivery hinges on storage, grid capacity and concessional international finance [5].

India's mitigation ambition is credible and partly over-delivered; its adaptation architecture is the weaker limb. Institutionalising a costed National Adaptation Plan, expanding heat action plans and coastal resilience, and pressing for assured climate finance at the COP process would convert a retired worst case into genuine safety, advancing both Article 48A's environmental mandate and SDG-13.

(~330 words)

Sources: 1. WCRP-CMIP, "Explainer: Scenarios for CMIP7" — seven new scenarios for AR7; High scenario ~3.5°C and possibly above 4°C; no pathway stays below 1.5°C 2. UNEP, Emissions Gap Report 2025 — current-policies trajectory ~2.8°C; new NDCs barely change projected warming 3. PIB, "Assessment of Climate Change over the Indian Region" (MoES/IITM) — ~6% monsoon rainfall decline; Indian Ocean warming of ~1°C, cyclone and sea-level risk 4. PIB, Economic Survey 2025-26, Environment and Climate Change chapter — 51.93% non-fossil installed capacity (Dec 2025); adaptation spending 5.6% of GDP in FY22 5. India's Nationally Determined Contribution (2031–2035), UNFCCC — 47% emissions-intensity reduction by 2035; 3.5–4.0 billion tonnes CO₂e carbon sink; intensity-based design and finance dependence