The new consensus and lessons for democracy

Detail

1. What "new consensus" means

• Consensus (in politics): broad agreement among rival parties on some basic policies. They keep fighting over who should rule, but not over these core questions.
• After 1989, competition between parties became fiercer than ever. Still, NCERT finds that most parties came to agree on four points.
• Coalition government: a government formed by two or more parties together, because no single party has a majority (272 of 543 seats) in the Lok Sabha.

2. The four elements of the consensus (NCERT)

(a) Agreement on the new economic policies

• New economic policies: the reforms started in 1991: liberalisation (fewer government controls), privatisation and globalisation (opening to world trade and investment), together called LPG.
• Most parties support them, whether they are in government or in opposition.
• Many groups in society still oppose them, for example trade unions, farmer groups and some people's movements. So the agreement is among parties, not across all of society.

(b) Acceptance of backward castes' political and social claims

• All parties now accept OBC reservation in education and government jobs. OBC means Other Backward Classes, the socially and educationally backward groups that are not SC or ST.
• Legal anchor: Article 15(4) (special provisions in education) and Article 16(4) (reservation in public jobs). The Mandal Commission's 27% OBC job quota was announced in 1990, and the Supreme Court upheld it in Indra Sawhney v. Union of India (1992).
• Parties also accept that OBCs should get a fair share of political power, such as tickets, ministerial posts and party posts.
• Extension after NCERT: the consensus later widened to economic criteria as well.
• The 103rd Constitutional Amendment Act, 2019 (passed January 2019) allowed up to 10% reservation for Economically Weaker Sections (EWS) in public jobs and education [5].
• In Janhit Abhiyan v. Union of India (2022), the Supreme Court upheld the amendment. It ruled that economic criteria do not break the basic structure (core features of the Constitution that Parliament cannot destroy) [5].
• The Court also held that the 50% ceiling on reservation is not rigid. It applies only to SC, ST and OBC quotas, so the extra 10% for EWS is valid [5].

(c) Acceptance of state-level parties' role in national government

• State (regional) party: a party whose support is mainly in one or a few states, such as the DMK, TDP, JD(U) or Shiv Sena.
• Before 1989, the Congress system (one-party dominance) kept state parties away from power at the Centre.
• After 1989, state parties regularly share power at the Centre in the National Front, United Front, NDA and UPA governments.
• As a result, the line between "state" and "national" parties matters less than before.

(d) Pragmatism over ideology

• Pragmatism: choosing what works in practice, such as winning power and running a stable government, over strict loyalty to a fixed set of ideas (ideology).
• Alliances now form without ideological agreement.
• NCERT's example: many NDA partners did not accept the BJP's Hindutva ideology. Hindutva means a cultural-nationalist idea of Indian identity based on Hindu culture. Even so, they governed together and completed a full term (1999–2004).

3. NCERT's vote-share graph

• NCERT's graph shows that the Congress and the BJP together won more than 50% of the vote in most Lok Sabha elections after 1989.
• The exceptions are 1996, 2004 and 2009. In these years the two parties together got less than half the votes, and state and smaller parties held the balance.
• Lesson: the two big national parties are the main "poles", but neither can ignore the many state parties.

4. Beyond the consensus: NCERT's closing view

• Some issues lie outside the party consensus. People's movements (non-party mass struggles) are bringing these issues to the agenda:
• poverty
• displacement (people forced off their land by dams, mines or industry)
• minimum wages
• livelihood

• social security (pensions, health cover and income support).

• Demands for justice and democracy are made through class, caste, gender and region.

• Democracy therefore grows from below as well, not only through parties.

5. Post-2014 debates (beyond NCERT)

(a) A new dominant-party system?

• Dominant-party system: many parties compete freely, but one party wins again and again. The Congress system of 1952–67 is the standard example.
• Some scholars call the BJP-led phase after 2014 the "fourth party system". In their scheme:
• first: the Congress system (1952–67)
• second: the Congress versus opposition phase (1967–89)
• third: the coalition era (1989–2014)

• fourth: BJP dominance (from 2014).

• Seat data: the BJP won 282 seats in 2014 and 303 in 2019. These were the first single-party Lok Sabha majorities since 1984 [3].

(b) Has the consensus widened?

• Debate point: does the consensus now also include
• welfare delivery, meaning direct benefit transfers, free rations and housing that all parties now promise, and
• cultural nationalism, meaning that rival parties have also become more open in using religious and national symbols?

(c) How fragile is the consensus?

• Farm laws: reform reversed under pressure
• In September 2020, Parliament passed three farm laws:
  • the Farmers (Empowerment and Protection) Agreement on Price Assurance and Farm Services Act, 2020
  • the Farmers' Produce Trade and Commerce (Promotion and Facilitation) Act, 2020
  • the Essential Commodities (Amendment) Act, 2020 [2].
• The Supreme Court stayed (paused) their implementation in January 2021 [2].
• Farmers' protests continued, and the Farm Laws Repeal Bill, 2021 was passed by both Houses on 29 November 2021. It was passed on the first day of the session, in under 10 minutes, without discussion [2].

• Lesson: market reform has party support, but people's movements can still reverse it.

• Caste census: a change in stand

• Until the 2011 Census, only SCs and STs were counted caste-wise [4].
• On 30 April 2025, the Cabinet Committee on Political Affairs, chaired by the Prime Minister, decided to include caste enumeration in the next Census [4].
• Census 2027 will count all castes during the population enumeration phase. It will be India's first digital census, with an outlay of ₹11,718.24 crore [4].
• Lesson: the OBC consensus has grown from "reservation" to "count every caste". A demand once made mainly by the opposition is now accepted by the ruling side as well.

(d) Has 2024 revived the coalition logic?

• In the 2024 Lok Sabha election, the BJP won 240 seats, short of the 272 needed for a majority [3].
• The NDA won 293 seats, so the government again depends on allies. The INDIA bloc won 234 and the Congress 99 [3].
• Narendra Modi began a third term as Prime Minister at the head of a coalition [3].
• Debate point: is this a return to coalition politics (allies like the TDP and JD(U) matter again), or just a weaker form of dominance?

6. Lessons for democracy

Peaceful changes of power

Year	What changed
1989	Congress lost; National Front (V.P. Singh) formed government
1996	Congress lost; United Front (after a 13-day BJP government)
1998	United Front gave way to the BJP-led alliance
2004	NDA lost; Congress-led UPA formed government
2014	UPA lost; BJP-led NDA won with a BJP majority

• In each case, the losing side handed over power through elections, with no coup and no violence.
• NCERT's verdict: democratic politics is here to stay in India. It changes through "continuous churning", meaning constant reshuffling of parties, alliances and social groups.

NCERT's big question: why did India become a mature democracy?

• Many countries that became free from colonial rule at the same time (around 1947–60) slipped into military or one-party rule. India did not.
• Possible reasons for an answer:
• regular, free elections run by an independent Election Commission (Article 324)
• a multi-party system that absorbs new groups such as OBCs, Dalits and regions
• federalism that gives state parties a stake in the system
• an independent judiciary
• people's movements that keep demands inside democratic channels.

Exercise Q6: the Congress's continuing influence despite its decline

• After 1989 the Congress lost its dominance, but it:
• led governments in 1991–96 (minority government) and 2004–14 (UPA)
• remained one of the two poles in the national vote-share graph

• shaped the economic reform consensus, since the LPG reforms began under the Congress in 1991.

• So the Congress declined as a dominant party but still sets the terms of national politics.

Exercise Q7: India's multi-party system versus a two-party model

Multi-party system: advantages	Two-party model: claimed advantages
Represents many castes, regions and languages	Clear choice and stable majorities
State parties give regions a voice at the Centre	Fewer unstable coalitions
Coalitions force bargaining and consensus	Clear accountability for policies
Lets new groups (OBCs, Dalits) rise politically	Less fragmentation of the vote

• In a society as diverse as India, a two-party model could leave out many groups. A multi-party system is noisier but more inclusive.

Prelims Hooks

• NCERT's four points of consensus: new economic policies, OBC claims, the role of state parties, and pragmatism over ideology.
• Congress and BJP vote shares together fell below 50% in 1996, 2004 and 2009, the exceptions after 1989 (NCERT).
• Farm Laws Repeal Bill, 2021: passed by both Houses on 29 November 2021. It repealed three laws from 2020, including the Essential Commodities (Amendment) Act, 2020 [2].
• The Supreme Court stayed the farm laws in January 2021, before they were repealed [2].
• 103rd Amendment, 2019: up to 10% EWS reservation. It was upheld in Janhit Abhiyan v. Union of India (2022), which held that the 50% ceiling applies only to SC, ST and OBC quotas [5].
• Caste enumeration in the Census was approved by the Cabinet Committee on Political Affairs (not the full Union Cabinet, not the Registrar General) on 30 April 2025. It applies to Census 2027 [4].
• The 2011 Census counted only SCs and STs by caste [4].
• 2024 Lok Sabha: BJP 240, NDA 293, Congress 99. The BJP had won 282 in 2014 and 303 in 2019 [3].
• Peaceful changes of power: 1989, 1996, 1998, 2004, 2014.

Mains Points

• The consensus is real but narrow. Parties agree on economic reform and OBC inclusion. But the farm-law repeal (2021) shows that reforms passed without wide consultation can fail when people's movements resist them [2]. Lesson: build consensus before legislating, through committee scrutiny and consultation with states.
• From Mandal to the caste census. Social justice has moved from reservation (1990) to EWS quotas (103rd Amendment, 2019; upheld in 2022) and then to counting all castes in Census 2027 [5][4]. Benefit: data for targeting welfare. Risk: rival groups compete harder for quotas and caste identities harden.
• Dominance versus coalition. In 2014–19, one-party majorities gave stable government but weaker checks. In 2024, dependence on allies brought back bargaining and federal voice [3]. Use this for GS-II answers on whether coalitions strengthen or weaken governance.
• Why India's democracy has lasted. Peaceful changes of power in 1989, 1996, 1998, 2004 and 2014, an inclusive multi-party system, an independent Election Commission (Article 324) and people's movements all help explain why India stayed democratic when many post-colonial states did not (GS-I/GS-II).