India’s cement footprint stands in its way to net-zero emissions

1. At a Glance

• Cement is a hard-to-abate sector. It emits CO₂ in two ways: from the fuel burnt to reach very high kiln temperatures, and from the chemical reaction itself (limestone calcination: CaCO₃ → CaO + CO₂). Cleaner energy alone cannot remove the second part [1].
• India has two long-term goals: a developed country (Viksit Bharat) by 2047 and net-zero emissions by 2070. Construction, which runs on cement and steel, is central to both [1].
• Cement accounts for roughly 6–7% of India's GHG emissions. About 55% of the sector's emissions come from calcination, which makes it a key test case for the Carbon Credit Trading Scheme (CCTS) and NITI Aayog's decarbonisation roadmaps [2].
• Relevant for GS-III (environment, infrastructure, industrial policy) and for Prelims (CCTS, GEI targets, clinker, CCUS).

2. Why in the News

• The Hindu (8 Oct 2026, by Monika Mondal, Berlin) argues that India's cement footprint is a structural obstacle to net-zero by 2070 [1].
• NITI Aayog has released a Roadmap for Cement Sector Decarbonisation, one of three green-transition reports covering cement, aluminium and MSMEs [2][3].
• The government has notified GHG Emission Intensity (GEI) targets for 208 more carbon-intensive industries under the CCTS [4].
• NITI Aayog's "Scenarios towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero" series (2026) includes volumes on industry and on financing needs [6][7][8].

3. Background & Evolution

• Humans have built for millennia, but cement became the standard binding agent only in the 19th century, when Portland cement was developed [1].
• Ordinary Portland Cement (OPC) is more than 95% clinker mixed with gypsum. Clinker is the emission-heavy component [1].
• 2023: The Ministry of Power and MoEFCC began developing the Carbon Credit Trading Scheme for decarbonisation [5].
• October 2025: The CCTS became operational with sector-specific GEI targets for four sectors: Aluminium, Cement, Chlor-Alkali, and Pulp & Paper [4][6].
• 2026: NITI Aayog released the Cement Decarbonisation Roadmap. According to its file path, the PDF was uploaded in January 2026 [2][3].
• 2026: GEI targets were extended to 208 more industrial units [4].
• Earlier related scheme (mentor note, not from the retrieved sources): PAT (Perform, Achieve and Trade) under the National Mission for Enhanced Energy Efficiency. Cement was a PAT "designated consumer" sector, and CCTS builds on this design.

4. Core Static Facts

Item	Fact
Global construction footprint	35–40% of global GHG emissions [1]
Cement's share of global emissions	7–11%, almost double aviation's share [1]
India's cement output (roadmap baseline)	~391 Mt [2]
India's cement emissions	~246 MtCO₂e, about 6% of national GHG emissions [2]
Sources of the sector's emissions	55% calcination, 33% on-site fuel combustion, 12% electricity [2]
Current carbon intensity	0.63 tCO₂e per tonne of cement [2]
2070 intensity pathway	~0.09–0.13 tCO₂e per tonne [2]
OPC composition	More than 95% clinker plus gypsum [1]
Market mechanism	CCTS: units that beat their GEI targets earn Carbon Credit Certificates (CCCs), which can be traded [4][6]
Ministries	Ministry of Power and MoEFCC (jointly developed the CCTS) [5]
Think tank	NITI Aayog (roadmap and net-zero scenarios) [2][7]
Main levers	Refuse-derived fuel (RDF), clinker substitution, CCUS, effective CCTS implementation [2][3]

• Definition (calcination): heating limestone breaks it down into lime and CO₂. These are process emissions, so they remain even if the plant runs entirely on renewable energy [1][2].
• Hard-to-abate: cement is so embedded in modern construction that it is very difficult to substitute or decarbonise [1].

5. Multi-Dimensional Analysis

Economic

• The infrastructure and housing push towards Viksit Bharat 2047 will raise cement demand, so total emissions can grow even if emissions per tonne fall [1][2].
• Under CCTS, carbon has a price. Efficient plants can earn and sell credits, while laggards must buy them [4][6].
• Deep decarbonisation, especially CCUS, needs large capital. NITI has a dedicated volume on financing needs [8].

Environmental

• Calcination produces 55% of the sector's emissions, so efficiency gains alone cannot reach net zero [2].
• Limestone mining destroys forests and fertile topsoil, which harms land and biodiversity beyond the climate impact [1].
• Co-processing RDF in kilns links decarbonisation with municipal solid waste management [2].

Scientific / Technological

• Clinker substitution means blended cements made with fly ash, slag or calcined clay. These lower clinker content below the more than 95% found in OPC [1][2].
• CCUS is the main way to capture the calcination emissions that cannot otherwise be avoided [2][3].
• The 0.63 → ~0.09–0.13 tCO₂e/t pathway means cutting intensity by roughly 80–85% by 2070 [2].

Governance / Administrative

• The CCTS rolled out in phases: 4 sectors in October 2025, then 208 more units notified [4][6].
• Two ministries are involved: Ministry of Power (energy-efficiency framework) and MoEFCC (climate) [5].
• Effectiveness depends on accurate monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) and on credible credit prices (analytical inference).

Geopolitical / Strategic

• Process-emission industries are where carbon border measures and green-procurement rules bite. Showing domestic carbon pricing through CCTS strengthens India's hand in negotiations (analytical inference).
• The sector also matters for India's commitments under the UNFCCC/Paris framework, including its net-zero by 2070 pledge [1][7].

6. Recent Developments (last 12–18 months)

• October 2025: CCTS GEI targets issued for Aluminium, Cement, Chlor-Alkali, and Pulp & Paper [4][6].
• 2026 (file uploaded January 2026): NITI Aayog releases the Roadmap for Cement Sector Decarbonisation. The PIB release covers three reports: cement, aluminium and MSMEs [2][3].
• 2026: GEI targets notified for 208 more carbon-intensive industries [4].
• 2026 (file uploaded February 2026): NITI's Scenarios towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero volumes are released, including Vol. 4 (Industry) and Vol. 9 (Financing Needs) [6][7][8].
• 8 October 2026: The Hindu analysis calls the cement footprint a barrier to net-zero [1].

7. Prelims Hooks

• India's net-zero target year is 2070. The Viksit Bharat target year is 2047 [1].
• Cement contributes 7–11% of global emissions, almost twice aviation's share [1].
• The construction sector accounts for 35–40% of global GHG emissions [1].
• Ordinary Portland Cement is more than 95% clinker, mixed with gypsum [1].
• Limestone calcination causes about 55% of cement-sector emissions. Fuel combustion causes about 33% and electricity about 12% [2].
• India's cement sector emits about 246 MtCO₂e, roughly 6% of national GHG emissions [2].
• India produces about 391 Mt of cement (NITI roadmap baseline) [2].
• Current cement carbon intensity is 0.63 tCO₂e/tonne. The 2070 target range is 0.09–0.13 tCO₂e/tonne [2].
• The first four sectors to receive CCTS GEI targets (October 2025) were Aluminium, Cement, Chlor-Alkali, and Pulp & Paper [4][6].
• Units that outperform their GEI targets earn tradable Carbon Credit Certificates [4][6].
• The CCTS was developed jointly by the Ministry of Power and MoEFCC [5].
• NITI Aayog released green-transition reports on cement, aluminium and MSMEs together [3].
• The NITI cement roadmap's levers are RDF, clinker substitution, CCUS and CCTS [2][3].

8. Why Lower Emissions per Tonne Can Still Mean More Total Emissions

• The CCTS sets targets per tonne of output, not a limit on total emissions
• CCTS is a "baseline-and-credit" system. Each plant gets a baseline: how much CO₂ it emitted per tonne in 2023-24. It then gets a lower per-tonne target for later years [9].
• Nothing in this design limits the total CO₂ a plant or the sector can emit. A plant can grow its output and still meet its target [9].

• The EU's carbon market works differently. It sets a fixed total limit, called a cap, for the whole system.

• A small example shows the gap

• India today makes about 391 Mt of cement at 0.63 tCO₂e per tonne. That gives about 246 MtCO₂e [2].
• Suppose housing and infrastructure for Viksit Bharat double output, and intensity falls only to 0.60 (about 5% lower). Total emissions would then be about 470 MtCO₂e, almost double. (Illustrative arithmetic, not a forecast.)

• So a plant can hit its CCTS target every year while the sector's total climate damage keeps rising.

• The first cuts are small compared with what 2070 needs

• Cement plants making OPC must cut intensity by 4.7% to 7.6% under the first targets [9].
• One independent report found the first-phase cuts for steel, cement and aluminium to be only 2–5% by 2026-27. It said these were too weak to change how industry works [10].
• The NITI pathway needs intensity to fall from 0.63 to about 0.09–0.13, a cut of roughly 80–85% [2]. At the current pace, the gap is very large.

9. Why a Weak Credit Price Cannot Pay for Carbon Capture

• CCUS is the only route for the 55% that comes from chemistry, and it pays no return on its own
• CCUS (carbon capture, utilisation and storage: trapping CO₂ at the chimney and using it or burying it) is the main answer to calcination emissions [2].

• Capturing CO₂ adds cost but makes no extra cement. A company invests only if carbon has a high enough price.

• Under CCTS, that price depends on how strict the targets are

• Plants that beat their targets earn Carbon Credit Certificates. Plants that miss must buy them [4][6].
• If targets are easy, many plants beat them. Many credits chase few buyers, so the price stays low. (Reasoning from the design.)
• A low price can pay for cheap fixes like better kilns. It cannot pay for a CCUS plant.

• Critics have already called the first targets too weak to drive deep change [10]. If that holds, CCUS will need money from outside the market. That is why NITI has a separate volume on financing needs [8].

• The scheme also leaves out the power sector

• The same report notes that power is excluded from CCTS [10].
• 12% of cement emissions come from electricity [2]. That share falls only if the grid itself gets cleaner, and CCTS does not cover the grid.

10. Why the Cheapest Fix Depends on Coal and Steel Waste

• Clinker substitution mostly uses waste from coal plants and steel furnaces
• Blended cement uses fly ash (ash from coal power plants) or slag (waste from steel blast furnaces) in place of some clinker [1][2].
• As India moves to net zero, it will burn less coal. Steel will also shift to cleaner methods. Both changes mean less fly ash and slag in the long run. (Reasoning, not a figure from the sources.)

• So the cheapest lever today could shrink just as cement demand peaks.

• LC3 offers a way out, because clay is easy to find

• LC3 (Limestone Calcined Clay Cement) uses about 50% clinker, 30% calcined clay, 15% limestone and 5% gypsum. OPC is more than 95% clinker [1][2].
• It can cut CO₂ emissions by up to 30% [2].
• BIS issued a standard for it, IS 18189:2023, in June 2023 [2]. A standard lets engineers and government buyers use it legally.
• A standard alone does not create demand. Builders still need to trust it and ask for it.

11. The Case for Going Slow, and Where It Falls Short

• The strongest objection: strict targets now would raise the cost of building India
• India still needs huge numbers of houses, roads and railways for Viksit Bharat 2047 [1].
• Calcination CO₂ cannot be avoided without expensive CCUS [2]. Strict targets now would push up cement prices and slow construction.

• Developing countries also argue that rich countries built their cities without paying any carbon price. They see the EU's border tax as unfair for the same reason [11].

• What this argument gets right

• Intensity targets give a growing economy room to grow. That is a fair choice for a country at India's stage.

• Deep cuts in cement really do depend on technology (CCUS) that is not yet cheap.

• Where it falls short

• The cost is coming anyway. The EU's CBAM (Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism: a charge on the carbon inside imported goods) came into force on 1 January 2026. It covers cement, steel and aluminium [11].
• India estimates CBAM could add an average tax burden of about 25% on affected exports. CBAM goods were nearly 10% of India's exports to the EU in 2022-23 [11].
• Plants built today will still be running in 2070. Each new kiln built on old technology locks in emissions for decades. Going slow now makes the later cuts steeper and more costly. (Reasoning.)
• So the honest answer is: keep intensity targets for now, but make them get tighter on a known, published schedule.

12. Who Must Move First, and How

• Ministry of Power (through BEE) should publish tighter cement targets now, for later years
• The first targets cut intensity by only single digits [9][10]. The 2070 path needs about 80–85% [2].
• A clear long-term schedule tells companies today that CCUS and LC3 will pay off. It also keeps credit prices from collapsing.

• In a later phase, India could move to a total cap on emissions, as the EU carbon market does.

• Government buyers (CPWD, state PWDs, MoHUA projects) should accept and prefer blended cement and LC3

• The BIS standard IS 18189:2023 already exists [2]. Tender rules that ask only for OPC keep clinker use high.

• Public projects can create the first steady demand that private builders then follow.

• Urban local bodies should supply waste that kilns can actually burn

• RDF (refuse-derived fuel: dry, burnable waste turned into fuel) is a main lever in NITI's roadmap [2].

• Mixed, wet, unsorted waste makes poor fuel. Separating waste at source is what makes RDF usable. (Reasoning.)

• Finance Ministry and NITI should set up dedicated funding for CCUS

• A weak credit price will not cover capture costs (see above). NITI's financing volume makes the case for planned climate finance [8].
• Early public support for a few pilot capture plants would show what the real cost is in Indian conditions.

13. Anchors for Answers

• Data: Cement emits about 246 MtCO₂e (~6% of India's GHG); 55% comes from calcination, which renewable power cannot remove [2]
• Data: First CCTS targets cut OPC intensity by 4.7–7.6% against a 2023-24 baseline. 186 cement entities are covered [9]
• Data: Intensity must fall from 0.63 to ~0.09–0.13 tCO₂e/t by 2070, a cut of roughly 80–85% [2]
• Data: EU CBAM in force from 1 Jan 2026; India estimates an average ~25% tax burden on affected exports [11]
• Report/Committee: NITI Aayog, Roadmap for Cement Sector Decarbonisation (2026) [2]; NITI, Scenarios towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero, Vol. 4 Industry and Vol. 9 Financing Needs (2026) [6][8]
• Law/Case: Energy Conservation Act, 2001 (as amended in 2022), the legal basis for the Carbon Credit Trading Scheme; BIS standard IS 18189:2023 for LC3 [2]
• Comparison: The EU carbon market sets an absolute cap on total emissions. India's CCTS sets per-tonne intensity targets only [9]
• Scheme: PAT (Perform, Achieve and Trade), the energy-efficiency trading scheme that came before CCTS; cement was a PAT sector

14. Mains Relevance

• GS-III: Conservation, environmental pollution and degradation; infrastructure; industrial policy and its effects on growth; mobilisation of resources (climate finance).
• GS-II (secondary): Government policies and interventions; role of NITI Aayog.
• Possible question stems: 1. Cement is a 'hard-to-abate' sector. Examine the technological and policy pathways for decarbonising India's cement industry consistent with its 2070 net-zero commitment. 2. Critically evaluate the Carbon Credit Trading Scheme as an instrument for industrial decarbonisation in India, with special reference to the cement sector. 3. Reconciling the infrastructure needs of Viksit Bharat 2047 with net-zero 2070 is India's central climate dilemma. Discuss.

15. Related Topics to Study Next

• Carbon Credit Trading Scheme / Indian Carbon Market: the main compliance instrument for cement.
• PAT scheme (NMEEE): the energy-efficiency trading scheme that preceded CCTS.
• Green steel taxonomy and steel decarbonisation: the other large construction-material emitter.
• CCUS policy: needed to deal with calcination emissions.
• EU CBAM (Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism): trade exposure for carbon-intensive exports.
• Solid Waste Management Rules and RDF: kiln co-processing links waste management to cement decarbonisation.
• Fly ash utilisation: supplies material for blended cement and clinker substitution.
• India's updated NDC and Panchamrit (COP26): the source of the 2070 net-zero pledge.

16. NCERT Concepts to Revise

• Carbon Credit Trading Scheme (Geography): CCTS is the main policy tool pushing cement plants to meet emission-intensity targets and trade credits.
• Cement industry (Geography): Explains how cement is made and located near limestone, helping you see why its emissions are hard to cut.
• Net zero (Economy): Net zero by 2070 is the goal against which the cement footprint is judged.
• Carbon intensity (Economy): The roadmap measures progress as emissions per tonne of cement, falling from 0.63 to about 0.1.
• Panchamrit (Geography): India's 2070 net-zero pledge came from the COP26 Panchamrit commitments.
• Carbon border adjustment mechanism (Economy): Carbon-heavy exports like cement face trade charges abroad, which is why domestic carbon pricing matters.

17. Common Errors / Trap Areas

• Process emissions vs energy emissions: renewable power cannot remove calcination CO₂, which is about 55% of the total. Do not equate decarbonising cement with switching to RE [2].
• Ministry confusion: the CCTS was developed jointly by the Ministry of Power and MoEFCC, not MoEFCC alone [5]. The roadmap was written by NITI Aayog, not the Ministry of Commerce [2].
• First CCTS sectors: they were Aluminium, Cement, Chlor-Alkali, and Pulp & Paper. Steel was not among the first four [4][6].
• Global vs national shares: 7–11% is cement's share of global emissions [1]. About 6% is its share of India's emissions [2].
• Target years: net zero is 2070, not 2050. Viksit Bharat is 2047 [1].