DATA POINT

1. At a Glance

• "Data Point" is The Hindu's data-journalism column. This edition (3 November 2026, Chennai edition, p. 9) covers Indonesia's 2026 wildfire crisis: more than 1.9 million hectares burned between January and September 2026 [1].
• The fires come from slash-and-burn land clearing for agriculture and plantations. A very strong El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which cut rainfall, made them worse [1][2].
• Peatland fires are central to the crisis. Peatlands cover about 3% of Earth's land but store about one-third of all soil carbon. More than 60% of the haze particles in Southeast Asia come from peatland fires [4][5].
• UPSC relevance: the topic covers ENSO and IOD teleconnections (also important for India's monsoon), wetlands, carbon sinks, transboundary pollution governance (ASEAN), and the health costs of air pollution.

2. Why in the News

• CREA (Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air) estimates 5,310 pollution deaths in September 2026, with 58 million people exposed to unhealthy air [1].
• 28 October 2026: thousands of Indonesians protested in the streets. They linked the fire crisis to wider grievances over President Prabowo Subianto's policies. Placards read "No Clean Air Under Dirty Government" [1].
• By early November, the 2026 hotspot count had already passed the yearly totals for every year from 2019 to 2025, with two months of the year still left (Nusantara Atlas FireWatch data) [1].
• In September 2026, Indonesia's BMKG (Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysical Agency) attributed the reduced rainfall to "El Niño with very strong intensity" and the IOD [1].

3. Background & Evolution

• Root cause: fire is used to clear vegetation for agriculture and plantations. Peatlands become highly inflammable once drained for development [1].
• Climate amplifiers: drought during positive phases of ENSO and the IOD makes the landscape more prone to fire. Most burning still happens on deforested land and degraded peatland [2].
• 2002: the ASEAN Agreement on Transboundary Haze Pollution was signed. It entered into force in 2003 and set up the ASEAN Coordinating Centre for Transboundary Haze Pollution Control [4].
• 2006–2020: the ASEAN Peatland Management Strategy and the ASEAN Peatland Management Initiative aimed to reduce pressure on peatlands [4].
• 2013: a major haze episode from the Sumatran fires took place without ENSO or IOD conditions, which shows that deforestation alone can drive haze [2].
• 2015: a severe El Niño-linked fire year in Equatorial Asia, with large population exposure to hazardous air [2].
• 2016 (November, Marrakech): UNEP launched the Global Peatlands Initiative. Its founding members included Indonesia, Peru and the Republic of Congo [5].
• 2019: ENSO was neutral that year, but the IOD drove the dry conditions behind the Borneo smoke [3].
• 2023: Indonesian fires returned during the El Niño of that year [2].

4. Core Static Facts

• Peatland is a waterlogged wetland where partly decayed organic matter builds up. When drained, it dries out enough to ignite and can smoulder underground [1][2].
• El Niño is the warm phase of ENSO. It typically cuts rainfall in Indonesia, especially when it coincides with a positive IOD [2].

5. Multi-Dimensional Analysis

Environmental

• Burning peat releases carbon stored over thousands of years. Indonesia holds about 57 Gt of carbon in peat, so fires there have global climate consequences [5].
• Draining peat for plantations creates the "fuel" that El Niño droughts then ignite. Deforestation sets the baseline risk [1][2].
• Major haze events are expected to become more frequent as Indonesian peatlands continue to be deforested [2].

Social / Health

• CREA estimates 5,310 deaths in one month and 58 million people exposed to unhealthy air [1].
• Unhealthy air has turned into political unrest: the 28 October 2026 protests linked clean air to governance failures [1].

Geopolitical / Regional

• Haze crosses borders into neighbouring Southeast Asian countries. This is why the 2002 ASEAN Agreement treats it as a regional problem [1][4].
• The case tests ASEAN's consensus-based, non-interference approach to cross-border environmental harm. It is a useful comparison for South Asia, which has no equivalent binding framework.

Scientific / Climatic

• ENSO and the IOD together control rainfall over the Maritime Continent [1][2].
• Peatland groundwater levels have been proposed as an early-warning indicator for El Niño and moderate positive IOD events [2].

Economic

• Land is cleared with fire for agriculture and plantations because it is cheap. The external costs (health, climate, damage to the region) fall on others [1].

Governance

• The protests point to a gap in accountability for enforcing fire bans and peat restoration [1].

6. Recent Developments (last 12–18 months)

• Summer 2026: Indonesia was in a severe, widespread drought. In August, NOAA assessed El Niño as present and strengthening, and a positive IOD was also present [2].
• September 2026: BMKG warned of "very strong" El Niño and IOD effects on rainfall [1].
• September 2026: CREA estimated 5,310 pollution deaths [1].
• January–September 2026: more than 1.9 million ha burned [1].
• 28 October 2026: mass protests against the Prabowo government's handling of the crisis [1].
• By early November 2026: the year's hotspot count had passed the annual totals for every year from 2019 to 2025 [1].

7. Prelims Hooks

• More than 1.9 million ha burned in Indonesia between January and September 2026, according to Nusantara Atlas FireWatch [1].
• BMKG is Indonesia's Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysical Agency [1].
• CREA estimated 5,310 haze deaths in September 2026, with 58 million people exposed [1].
• A positive IOD combined with El Niño reduces rainfall over Indonesia [1][2].
• Peatlands cover about 3% of land but store about one-third of soil carbon [5].
• More than half of the world's tropical peatlands are in Southeast Asia [5].
• Indonesia's peat holds about 57 Gt of carbon [5].
• More than 60% of Southeast Asian haze particles come from peatland fires [4].
• The ASEAN Agreement on Transboundary Haze Pollution was signed in 2002 and came into force in 2003 [4].
• The agreement set up the ASEAN Coordinating Centre for Transboundary Haze Pollution Control [4].
• The Global Peatlands Initiative was launched in Marrakech in 2016 and is led by UNEP [5].
• In Borneo, fire emissions can be up to 30 times higher in El Niño years than in La Niña years [3].
• The 2013 Sumatran haze happened without an ENSO or IOD event [2].

8. Why 'Worst Since 2019' Does Not Mean 'Worst Ever'

• The comparison leaves out the worst recent year
• The hotspot record only covers the years 2019 to 2025 [1]. It does not include 2015.
• About 2.6 million ha burned in 2015 over the whole year [6]. In 2026, 1.9 million ha had burned by the end of September [1].

• So 2026 is very bad, but it has not yet beaten 2015 on area burned. In an answer, say 'worst since 2019', not 'worst ever'.

• The death figures for the two years were counted in different ways

• For 2015, the World Bank recorded 19 deaths linked to the haze and more than 500,000 cases of acute respiratory infection (infections of the nose, throat and lungs) [6].
• For 2026, the figure of 5,310 deaths in one month is an estimate by CREA, not a count of recorded deaths [1].
• Do not write that 'deaths rose hundreds of times'. Compare only numbers measured in the same way.

9. The Real Bill: Cheap for the Burner, Costly for Everyone Else

• One fire season cost Indonesia about 2% of its economy
• The World Bank put the cost of the 2015 fires at about US$16.1 billion. That is about 1.9% of Indonesia's GDP for that year [6].

• Short-term health costs alone were about US$151 million [6].

• The sectors that use fire lose the most from it

• Agriculture and forestry lost about US$8.8 billion in 2015 [6]. These are the same sectors that clear land with fire.

• Burning is cheap for a single farm or company. The whole sector pays for it later, along with the people who breathe the smoke.

• The biggest cost is carbon, and nobody pays for it

• The World Bank report names the loss of stored carbon as the single biggest cost of the fires [6].

• No one in Indonesia gets a bill for this. The cost falls on the global climate.

• Even US$16.1 billion is too low

• The figure counts only losses inside Indonesia. The report says the true cost is much higher once costs to neighbouring countries and the world are added [6].
• Neighbouring countries breathe the haze [4], but they have no say over how land is used in Indonesia. This is the gap a regional agreement is meant to fill.

10. Why Re-wetting the Peat Has Not Stopped the Fires

• After 2015, Indonesia created a special agency to restore peat
• The Peat Restoration Agency (BRG) was set up in 2016. In 2021 it became BRGM and took on mangroves as well [8].
• Its main method is canal blocking: closing drainage canals so that water stays in the peat and the peat cannot dry out and burn [8].

• BRGM has restored about 1.3 million ha. The World Bank says re-wetting has reduced fires and their costs in recent years [7].

• One government office drains the peat that another is re-wetting

• The World Bank found that the public works agency (Dinas Pekerjaan Umum) was draining peatland in the same areas BRGM was re-wetting [8].

• The two offices' responsibilities overlap, so a blocked canal can be reopened by another office's drainage work [8].

• No one can yet prove that restoration works at scale

• A 2021 study in Nature Communications said large-scale peat restoration had only just begun. It said it was too early to measure the effect on fires and asked for detailed monitoring [9].
• 2026 is a hard test. In nine months, 1.9 million ha burned [1]. That is more than the entire 1.3 million ha restored so far [7].

11. Is It Just Bad Weather? Testing the Government's Best Defence

• The strongest case for blaming the climate
• Indonesia's weather agency, BMKG, blamed the low rainfall on a 'very strong' El Niño together with the IOD [1].

• The weather effect is real. In Borneo, fire emissions can be up to 30 times higher in El Niño years than in La Niña years [3]. No government controls the ocean.

• Why this defence only partly holds

• Most of the burning happens on deforested land and degraded peat [2]. Drought sets the fuel alight, but draining and clearing the land is what creates the fuel.

• The haze of 2013 happened with no El Niño and no IOD at all [2]. Land use alone can produce a haze crisis.

• The drought was forecast in advance

• NOAA had said in August 2026 that El Niño was present and getting stronger [2]. BMKG issued its warning in September [1].

• A forecast gives time to prepare: patrols, fire bans and re-wetting the peat before the dry months. Officials knew the drought was coming months ahead, so it does not excuse a weak response.

• The fair conclusion

• The weather explains when the fires come. Land use and enforcement explain how big they get. A good answer gives credit to both causes and does not let either one take all the blame.

12. Anchors for Answers

• Data: The 2015 fires cost Indonesia about US$16.1 billion, roughly 1.9% of GDP. Agriculture and forestry alone lost US$8.8 billion [6]
• Data: About 1.3 million ha of peatland restored by BRGM so far [7], compared with 1.9 million ha burned in January–September 2026 [1]
• Report/Committee: World Bank, The Cost of Fire: An Economic Analysis of Indonesia's 2015 Fire Crisis (2016) [6]. World Bank, Improving Governance of Indonesia's Peatlands and Other Lowland Ecosystems (technical report) [8]
• Law/Case: ASEAN Agreement on Transboundary Haze Pollution (signed 2002, in force 2003) [4]
• Comparison: After the 2015 fires, Indonesia set up a dedicated peat restoration agency (BRG, 2016; renamed BRGM in 2021) instead of relying only on fire bans [8]

13. Mains Relevance

• GS-I: important geophysical phenomena (El Niño, IOD) and their effects on regional climate.
• GS-II: regional groupings (ASEAN) and their environmental cooperation; effect of neighbouring regions' policies on India's interests.
• GS-III: conservation, environmental pollution and degradation; disaster management.
• Question stems: 1. Peatlands are small in area but outsized in carbon significance. Examine the drivers of peatland degradation in Southeast Asia and its implications for global climate goals. 2. Discuss how ENSO and the Indian Ocean Dipole interact to shape extreme fire and drought events in the Indo-Pacific. What lessons does this hold for India's disaster preparedness? 3. Evaluate the effectiveness of the ASEAN Agreement on Transboundary Haze Pollution. Can South Asia adopt a similar framework for transboundary air pollution?

14. Related Topics to Study Next

• Indian Ocean Dipole and the Indian monsoon: the same IOD that dries Indonesia shapes India's rainfall.
• ENSO phases (El Niño, La Niña, Modoki): the main amplifier of fires in the Maritime Continent.
• Ramsar Convention and wetland conservation: peatlands are wetlands.
• Stubble burning in Punjab and Haryana: India's version of agricultural fire-driven haze.
• National Clean Air Programme (NCAP): India's domestic air-quality policy.
• Carbon sinks (blue and green carbon, soil carbon): links to the NDCs and the Paris Agreement.
• Forest fires in India (FSI monitoring): domestic fire surveillance.
• Malé Declaration (South Asia): the regional comparison for transboundary air pollution.

15. NCERT Concepts to Revise

• Indian Ocean Dipole (Geography): Positive IOD cut Indonesia's rainfall and worsened the fires; it also shapes India's monsoon.
• ENSO (Geography): A very strong El Niño caused the drought that dried peatlands and fuelled the fires.
• Deforestation (Economy): Clearing and draining forest and peatland sets the baseline fire risk that droughts then ignite.
• Wetland (Geography): Peatlands are waterlogged wetlands; draining them makes them flammable and releases stored carbon.
• Air pollution (Economy): Haze particles caused thousands of deaths and exposed millions, which links to India's own air-quality problems.
• Stubble burning (Geography): India's closest parallel: agricultural burning that creates seasonal haze and smog.

16. Common Errors / Trap Areas

• ASEAN Haze Agreement dates: it was signed in 2002 and in force from 2003. Do not mix up the two years [4].
• Global Peatlands Initiative: it is led by UNEP and was launched in Marrakech (COP22, 2016). It is not a Ramsar or FAO body [5].
• IOD versus ENSO: haze can happen with only one of them, or with neither. In 2019 the IOD drove the dry conditions with ENSO neutral, and in 2013 neither was present [2][3].
• Peatland area versus carbon: about 3% of land holds about one-third of soil carbon. Do not invert the two figures [5].
• "Data Point" is a column, not a scheme or index: it is The Hindu's data-journalism series, so do not treat it as a government programme.