Discuss how ENSO and the Indian Ocean Dipole interact to shape extreme fire and drought events in the Indo-Pacific. What lessons does this hold for India's disaster preparedness?

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are linked ocean–atmosphere cycles that together control rainfall over the Maritime Continent. In Indonesia's 2026 fire season, more than 1.9 million ha burned by September during a "very strong" El Niño and a positive IOD [1]. The season shows that climate decides when fires come, and land use decides how big they get.

How ENSO and the IOD Interact

• Phases that reinforce each other: El Niño moves Pacific convection east, away from Indonesia. A positive IOD cools the waters off Sumatra. Together they cut rainfall and deepen drought, as in 2015 and 2026 [2].
• Either can act alone: ENSO was neutral in 2019, yet the IOD caused the dry spell behind Borneo's smoke [3].
• Higher emissions: fire emissions in Borneo can be up to 30 times higher in El Niño years than in La Niña years [3].
• Land use supplies the fuel: drained peat catches fire and smoulders underground. Peat fires produce more than 60% of regional haze [4]. The 2013 Sumatran haze happened with no ENSO or IOD event at all [2].

Consequences

• Health: an estimated 5,310 deaths in September 2026, with 58 million people exposed to unhealthy air [1].
• Economy: the 2015 fires cost Indonesia about US$16.1 billion (~1.9% of GDP) [5].
• Region: haze crossing borders led to the 2002 ASEAN Haze Agreement [4].

Lessons for India's Disaster Preparedness

• Act on forecasts: NOAA reported a strengthening El Niño in August 2026 [2], months before the fires peaked. India should link IMD's ENSO–IOD outlooks to drought and fire plans that start before the dry months.
• Fix the fuel, not just the fire: Himalayan forest fires and stubble burning in Punjab and Haryana are land-use problems. FSI fire alerts and crop-residue schemes need enforcement on the ground.
• Make agencies work together: in Indonesia, the public-works agency drained peat in the same areas the restoration agency was re-wetting [6]. India's forest, wetland and irrigation departments need a single plan.
• Regional cooperation: India could push to make the Malé Declaration stronger and binding.
• Health readiness: build smoke episodes into NCAP and heat-action plans.

ENSO and the IOD set the timing of drought, but degraded land turns drought into disaster. India can combine ocean-climate forecasting with land-use reform and better coordination between agencies. That would move it from reacting after disasters to preparing for them, in line with the Sendai Framework and SDG 13.