PARLIAMENT QUESTION: ADVANCEMENTS IN WEATHER FORECASTING
1. At a Glance
- Refers to the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) annual review (Dec 2025) and Independent Review Committee (Aug 2025) on weather forecasting, climate services and ocean research during 2024–25 [S1].
- Anchored in Mission Mausam, the Bharat Forecast System (BharatFS), and a major HPC upgrade — flagship of India's "Weather-ready and Climate-smart" thrust [S2][S3].
- High UPSC salience for GS-III (Sci-Tech, Disaster Management) and Prelims (schemes, agencies, numbers).
2. Why in the News
- PIB release dated 29 Jan 2026 by MoES detailing 2024–25 progress and IRC review for next Finance Commission cycle [S1].
- Operational rollout of BharatFS by IMD on 26 May 2025 at 6 km resolution — among world's first such indigenous high-resolution models [S2][S3].
- Computing power scaled to 28 PetaFLOPS via HPC systems "Arunika" and "Arka" (from 6.8 PetaFLOPS in 2014) [S2].
3. Background & Evolution
- IMD founded 1875; nodal agency under MoES.
- MoES carved out as separate ministry from DST in 2006.
- Monsoon Mission launched 2012 to develop coupled dynamical models.
- Mission Mausam approved by Union Cabinet on 11 Sept 2024 — ₹2,000 crore for 2024–2026 [S3].
- BharatFS unveiled by IITM (Pune); operationalised by IMD on 26 May 2025 [S2][S3].
4. Core Static Facts
- Implementing Ministry: Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) — not MoEFCC [S1].
- Key Institutions: IMD, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM, Pune), NCMRWF (Noida), INCOIS (Hyderabad), NCPOR (Goa) [S1].
- Mission Mausam outlay: ₹2,000 crore (2024–26); ₹258 cr (2024-25) + ₹1,742 cr (2025-26) [S3].
- BharatFS resolution: 6 km (vs previous 12 km GFS); forecasts up to 10 days (short + medium range); panchayat-cluster level [S2][S3].
- HPC Systems: Arunika & Arka — combined 28 PetaFLOPS [S2].
- Decision Support System (DSS): GIS-based, front-end of early warning systems for all weather hazards (IMD) [S2].
- AWS expansion: 50 Automatic Weather Stations each in Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai, Pune in 2026 [S2].
5. Multi-Dimensional Analysis
- Scientific / Technological
- BharatFS uses a stretched-grid global model at 6 km — finest operational resolution globally for such coverage [S2][S3].
- Integration of AI/ML to enhance model accuracy and downscaling [S2].
- HPC jump (6.8 → 28 PetaFLOPS) enables real-time meso-scale + global model runs [S2].
- Administrative / Disaster Management
- GIS-based DSS feeds Common Alerting Protocol for SDMAs and district administrations [S2].
- Panchayat-level forecasts permit hyper-local advisories for agriculture and disasters [S3].
- Economic
- Agri-met advisories under Gramin Krishi Mausam Sewa; supports farmer income, reduces crop loss.
- Cyclone early warning has cut economic losses; aviation, shipping, energy beneficiaries.
- Environmental / Climate
- Couples with Mission Mausam's cloud-seeding (artificial rain enhancement) and air-quality components [S3].
- Strengthens climate services for adaptation under UNFCCC commitments.
- Geopolitical
- India offers forecasts to 13 South Asian / Indian Ocean Rim countries under WMO RSMC New Delhi for tropical cyclones — soft power leverage.
6. Recent Developments (last 12–18 months)
- 11 Sept 2024: Cabinet approves Mission Mausam (₹2,000 cr) [S3].
- 26 May 2025: IMD operationalises BharatFS at 6 km [S2][S3].
- Aug 2025: Independent Review Committee reviews MoES central sector schemes [S1].
- Dec 2025: Annual MoES review meeting [S1].
- 2026: AWS rollout — 200 stations across Delhi/Mumbai/Chennai/Pune [S2].
- 29 Jan 2026: PIB Parliament Question on advancements [S1].
7. Prelims Hooks
- BharatFS developed by IITM Pune; operationalised by IMD on 26 May 2025 at 6 km resolution [S2][S3].
- Mission Mausam outlay: ₹2,000 crore for 2024–2026 [S3].
- MoES HPC systems named Arunika and Arka — total 28 PetaFLOPS [S2].
- Previous Global Forecast System ran at 12 km; BharatFS halved it to 6 km [S3].
- BharatFS forecast horizon: up to 10 days (short + medium range) [S2].
- Implementing ministry: MoES (not MoEFCC, not DST) [S1].
- IMD founded 1875; nodal body for weather services.
- NCMRWF is at Noida; IITM at Pune; INCOIS at Hyderabad.
- Cyclone forecasts for region issued by RSMC New Delhi (WMO designation).
- DSS is GIS-based front-end for early warnings [S2].
- AWS expansion: 50 each in 4 metros in 2026 [S2].
- HPC capacity in 2014: 6.8 PetaFLOPS [S2].
8. Mains Relevance
- GS-III: Science & Tech — indigenisation; Disaster Management — early warning; Economy — agri-met services.
- GS-II (peripheral): governance/federal coordination with SDMAs.
- Probable stems: 1. "Examine how Mission Mausam and Bharat Forecast System strengthen India's disaster preparedness." 2. "Hyper-local weather forecasting is a public good. Discuss the institutional and technological enablers in India." 3. "Evaluate the role of high-performance computing and AI in modernising India's meteorological services."
9. Related Topics to Study Next
- Mission Mausam — parent umbrella scheme.
- Monsoon Mission & Coupled Forecast System — predecessor R&D effort.
- Cyclone management (NDMA) — uses IMD outputs.
- INCOIS / Tsunami Early Warning — ocean services pillar.
- IndSCI-FOR / NavIC — geospatial dependencies for AWS, satellites.
- WMO and RSMC New Delhi — international role.
- PM-KISAN / Gramin Krishi Mausam Sewa — downstream agri use.
- National Disaster Management Plan 2019 — policy framework.
10. Common Errors / Trap Areas
- Confusing MoES (parent of IMD) with MoEFCC — IMD is under MoES.
- Mis-attributing BharatFS to ISRO; it is IITM-Pune under MoES [S2].
- BharatFS resolution is 6 km, not 12 km (12 km was older GFS) [S3].
- Mission Mausam outlay is ₹2,000 cr, not ₹2,000 cr/year — total for 2024–26 [S3].
- HPC systems: Arunika/Arka are at MoES (IITM & NCMRWF), distinct from PARAM series (C-DAC) and AIRAWAT (MeitY).
11. Sources
- [S1] Parliament Question: Advancements in Weather Forecasting (MoES, 29 Jan 2026) — https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2220213 — (tier: 1)
- [S2] Parliament Question: Advanced Computer Simulation Models / AWS Expansion — https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2201542 ; https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2214967 — (tier: 1)
- [S3] Mission Mausam — ₹2,000 cr initiative & Bharat Forecast System — https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleaseIframePage.aspx?PRID=2054427 ; https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2131392 — (tier: 1)