PARLIAMENT QUESTION: ADVANCEMENTS IN WEATHER FORECASTING

1. At a Glance

• Refers to the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) annual review (Dec 2025) and Independent Review Committee (Aug 2025) on weather forecasting, climate services and ocean research during 2024–25 [1].
• Anchored in Mission Mausam, the Bharat Forecast System (BharatFS), and a major HPC upgrade — flagship of India's "Weather-ready and Climate-smart" thrust [2][3].
• High UPSC salience for GS-III (Sci-Tech, Disaster Management) and Prelims (schemes, agencies, numbers).

2. Why in the News

• PIB release dated 29 Jan 2026 by MoES detailing 2024–25 progress and IRC review for next Finance Commission cycle [1].
• Operational rollout of BharatFS by IMD on 26 May 2025 at 6 km resolution — among world's first such indigenous high-resolution models [2][3].
• Computing power scaled to 28 PetaFLOPS via HPC systems "Arunika" and "Arka" (from 6.8 PetaFLOPS in 2014) [2].

3. Background & Evolution

• IMD founded 1875; nodal agency under MoES.
• MoES carved out as separate ministry from DST in 2006.
• Monsoon Mission launched 2012 to develop coupled dynamical models.
• Mission Mausam approved by Union Cabinet on 11 Sept 2024 — ₹2,000 crore for 2024–2026 [3].
• BharatFS unveiled by IITM (Pune); operationalised by IMD on 26 May 2025 [2][3].

4. Core Static Facts

• Implementing Ministry: Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) — not MoEFCC [1].
• Key Institutions: IMD, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM, Pune), NCMRWF (Noida), INCOIS (Hyderabad), NCPOR (Goa) [1].
• Mission Mausam outlay: ₹2,000 crore (2024–26); ₹258 cr (2024-25) + ₹1,742 cr (2025-26) [3].
• BharatFS resolution: 6 km (vs previous 12 km GFS); forecasts up to 10 days (short + medium range); panchayat-cluster level [2][3].
• HPC Systems: Arunika & Arka — combined 28 PetaFLOPS [2].
• Decision Support System (DSS): GIS-based, front-end of early warning systems for all weather hazards (IMD) [2].
• AWS expansion: 50 Automatic Weather Stations each in Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai, Pune in 2026 [2].

5. Multi-Dimensional Analysis

• Scientific / Technological
• BharatFS uses a stretched-grid global model at 6 km — finest operational resolution globally for such coverage [2][3].
• Integration of AI/ML to enhance model accuracy and downscaling [2].

• HPC jump (6.8 → 28 PetaFLOPS) enables real-time meso-scale + global model runs [2].

• Administrative / Disaster Management

• GIS-based DSS feeds Common Alerting Protocol for SDMAs and district administrations [2].

• Panchayat-level forecasts permit hyper-local advisories for agriculture and disasters [3].

• Economic

• Agri-met advisories under Gramin Krishi Mausam Sewa; supports farmer income, reduces crop loss.

• Cyclone early warning has cut economic losses; aviation, shipping, energy beneficiaries.

• Environmental / Climate

• Couples with Mission Mausam's cloud-seeding (artificial rain enhancement) and air-quality components [3].

• Strengthens climate services for adaptation under UNFCCC commitments.

• Geopolitical

• India offers forecasts to 13 South Asian / Indian Ocean Rim countries under WMO RSMC New Delhi for tropical cyclones — soft power leverage.

6. Recent Developments (last 12–18 months)

• 11 Sept 2024: Cabinet approves Mission Mausam (₹2,000 cr) [3].
• 26 May 2025: IMD operationalises BharatFS at 6 km [2][3].
• Aug 2025: Independent Review Committee reviews MoES central sector schemes [1].
• Dec 2025: Annual MoES review meeting [1].
• 2026: AWS rollout — 200 stations across Delhi/Mumbai/Chennai/Pune [2].
• 29 Jan 2026: PIB Parliament Question on advancements [1].

7. Prelims Hooks

• BharatFS developed by IITM Pune; operationalised by IMD on 26 May 2025 at 6 km resolution [2][3].
• Mission Mausam outlay: ₹2,000 crore for 2024–2026 [3].
• MoES HPC systems named Arunika and Arka — total 28 PetaFLOPS [2].
• Previous Global Forecast System ran at 12 km; BharatFS halved it to 6 km [3].
• BharatFS forecast horizon: up to 10 days (short + medium range) [2].
• Implementing ministry: MoES (not MoEFCC, not DST) [1].
• IMD founded 1875; nodal body for weather services.
• NCMRWF is at Noida; IITM at Pune; INCOIS at Hyderabad.
• Cyclone forecasts for region issued by RSMC New Delhi (WMO designation).
• DSS is GIS-based front-end for early warnings [2].
• AWS expansion: 50 each in 4 metros in 2026 [2].
• HPC capacity in 2014: 6.8 PetaFLOPS [2].

8. Mains Relevance

• GS-III: Science & Tech — indigenisation; Disaster Management — early warning; Economy — agri-met services.
• GS-II (peripheral): governance/federal coordination with SDMAs.
• Probable stems: 1. "Examine how Mission Mausam and Bharat Forecast System strengthen India's disaster preparedness." 2. "Hyper-local weather forecasting is a public good. Discuss the institutional and technological enablers in India." 3. "Evaluate the role of high-performance computing and AI in modernising India's meteorological services."

9. Related Topics to Study Next

• Mission Mausam — parent umbrella scheme.
• Monsoon Mission & Coupled Forecast System — predecessor R&D effort.
• Cyclone management (NDMA) — uses IMD outputs.
• INCOIS / Tsunami Early Warning — ocean services pillar.
• IndSCI-FOR / NavIC — geospatial dependencies for AWS, satellites.
• WMO and RSMC New Delhi — international role.
• PM-KISAN / Gramin Krishi Mausam Sewa — downstream agri use.
• National Disaster Management Plan 2019 — policy framework.

10. Common Errors / Trap Areas

• Confusing MoES (parent of IMD) with MoEFCC — IMD is under MoES.
• Mis-attributing BharatFS to ISRO; it is IITM-Pune under MoES [2].
• BharatFS resolution is 6 km, not 12 km (12 km was older GFS) [3].
• Mission Mausam outlay is ₹2,000 cr, not ₹2,000 cr/year — total for 2024–26 [3].
• HPC systems: Arunika/Arka are at MoES (IITM & NCMRWF), distinct from PARAM series (C-DAC) and AIRAWAT (MeitY).