Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare releases Second Advance Estimates of Production of major agricultural crops (Kharif & Rabi) for 2025-26
1. At a Glance
- Second Advance Estimates (2nd AE) released on 10 March 2026 by the Ministry of Agriculture & Farmers Welfare (MoAFW) under Union Minister Shri Shivraj Singh Chouhan [S1].
- It is the second of four advance estimates (1st AE → 4th/Final) compiled annually by the Directorate of Economics & Statistics (DES), DA&FW — a benchmark for MSP, procurement, food security, and trade policy.
- 2025-26 estimates show record total foodgrain output ≈ 3486.57 LMT (Kharif 1741.44 + Rabi 1745.13 LMT), with wheat, rice, maize at record levels [S1][S2].
2. Why in the News
- MoAFW released the Second Advance Estimates for 2025-26 on 10 March 2026 showing both Kharif (1741.44 LMT) and Rabi (1745.13 LMT) foodgrain output higher by 2.8% and 3.2% YoY respectively over 2024-25 [S1][S2].
- Estimates feed into Economic Survey/Budget cycle and validate MSP procurement targets.
3. Background & Evolution
- DES has issued Advance Estimates of Crop Production for decades; current four-AE cycle institutionalised post-1990s.
- Estimates are derived from State Agricultural Statistics Authorities (SASAs), remote-sensing inputs (FASAL, KISAN), and Crop Cutting Experiments (CCEs).
- Sequence in a year: 1st AE (Sept-Oct, Kharif only) → 2nd AE (Feb-March, Kharif + Rabi) → 3rd AE (May) → 4th/Final Estimates (Aug).
- The 2024-25 2nd AE was released on 28 February 2025; 2025-26 First AE for Kharif came in October 2025 [S2].
4. Core Static Facts
| Crop | 2025-26 (2nd AE) | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Total Kharif foodgrains | 1741.44 LMT | +46 LMT (2.8%) YoY [S1] |
| Total Rabi foodgrains | 1745.13 LMT | +53 LMT (3.2%) YoY [S1] |
| Rice (Kharif) | 1239.28 LMT | +11.56 LMT vs 1227.72 LMT (2024-25) [S1] |
| Rice (Rabi) | 167.20 LMT | [S1] |
| Wheat | 1202.10 LMT | +22.65 LMT over 1179.45 LMT [S1][S2] |
| Maize (Kharif) | 302.47 LMT (record) | [S2] |
| Maize (Rabi) | 159.03 LMT (record) | [S2] |
| Tur (Arhar) | 34.55 LMT | [S1] |
| Gram (Chana) | 117.92 LMT | [S1] |
| Lentil (Masur) | 17.33 LMT | [S1] |
| Soybean | 127.20 LMT | [S2] |
| Rapeseed & Mustard | 133.31 LMT | [S2] |
| Cotton | 290.91 lakh bales (170 kg each) | [S2] |
| Sugarcane | 5001.97 LMT | [S2] |
- Unit: 1 LMT = 1 Lakh Metric Tonne = 100,000 tonnes [S1].
- Implementing body: DES, Department of Agriculture & Farmers Welfare (DA&FW), MoAFW [S1].
- Constitutional basis: Agriculture is a State subject (Entry 14, List II, Seventh Schedule); statistics fall under MoSPI/MoAFW coordination.
5. Multi-Dimensional Analysis
Economic - Record foodgrain output supports food inflation moderation and buffer stock norms under FCI [S1]. - Wheat at 1202.10 LMT allows easier OMSS sales and PMGKAY/NFSA offtake [S1].
Social - Pulses (Tur 34.55, Gram 117.92, Lentil 17.33 LMT) directly affect protein security of poor households; under-target Tur keeps import dependence on Mozambique/Myanmar [S1].
Environmental - Continued rice-wheat dominance raises groundwater stress concerns (Punjab–Haryana); high maize/oilseeds output aligns with crop diversification push.
Administrative - 2nd AE relies on SASAs + CCEs + remote sensing (FASAL of ISRO/Mahalanobis NCFC); quality varies across states.
Strategic / Trade - Edible-oil self-sufficiency: soybean 127.20 LMT and mustard 133.31 LMT remain insufficient — India imports ~55-60% of edible oil (NMEO-Oilseeds context) [S2].
6. Recent Developments (12-18 months)
- Oct 2025: First Advance Estimates of Kharif 2025-26 released [S2].
- 10 March 2026: Second Advance Estimates 2025-26 released [S1].
- 2024-25 Third AE (released mid-2025) had already projected record foodgrain production, continuing the rising trend [S2].
- Final Estimates 2024-25 also released around the same window confirming Agri & Allied GVA at ₹48.77 lakh crore (2023-24) — more than doubled in recent years [S2].
7. Prelims Hooks
- 2nd AE 2025-26 released: 10 March 2026 by MoAFW [S1].
- Total foodgrain (Kharif+Rabi): ~3486.57 LMT [S1].
- Wheat output: 1202.10 LMT (record) [S1].
- Kharif rice: 1239.28 LMT [S1].
- Tur: 34.55 LMT; Gram: 117.92 LMT; Lentil: 17.33 LMT [S1].
- Kharif maize record: 302.47 LMT [S2].
- Sugarcane: 5001.97 LMT [S2].
- Cotton: 290.91 lakh bales of 170 kg each [S2].
- Soybean: 127.20 LMT; Rapeseed-Mustard: 133.31 LMT [S2].
- Released by: DES, DA&FW, MoAFW (not MoSPI) [S1].
- Frequency: Four advance estimates per year — 1st (Kharif only), 2nd (K+R), 3rd, 4th/Final.
- Agriculture: Entry 14, State List, 7th Schedule.
- Union Agriculture Minister: Shivraj Singh Chouhan [S1].
8. Mains Relevance
- GS-III: Major crops, cropping patterns; issues related to direct/indirect farm subsidies; MSP; food security; PDS.
- GS-II: Government policies & interventions; vulnerable sections (farmers).
- Possible question stems: 1. "Record foodgrain production conceals stagnating pulses and oilseeds output." Examine in light of Second Advance Estimates 2025-26. 2. Critically evaluate the methodology of Advance Estimates of Crop Production in India. 3. Discuss how rising cereal output coexists with persistent farm distress.
9. Related Topics to Study Next
- MSP & CACP — price signals based on these estimates.
- PM-KISAN, PMFBY, PM-AASHA — schemes whose outlay tracks output.
- NMEO-Oilseeds & NMEO-Oil Palm — given oilseed gap.
- FCI buffer norms & PMGKAY/NFSA 2013 — wheat-rice procurement linkage.
- FASAL project / Mahalanobis NCFC / ISRO remote sensing — methodology.
- Horticulture Estimates (NHB) — released parallel by MoAFW [S2].
- Agri GVA & Economic Survey chapter on Agriculture.
- Seventh Schedule – Agriculture (Entry 14, List II).
10. Common Errors / Trap Areas
- Ministry: Estimates are by MoAFW/DA&FW, not MoSPI (which does GDP/AE of National Income) [S1].
- Units: Cotton in lakh bales of 170 kg (not tonnes); Jute/Mesta bales are 180 kg.
- Sequence: 1st AE covers only Kharif; 2nd AE is the first one to include Rabi.
- Confusing Advance Estimates of Crop Production (MoAFW) with Advance Estimates of National Income (MoSPI/NSO).
- Treating estimates as final — they are revised across four iterations.
11. Sources
- [S1] Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare releases Second Advance Estimates of Production of major agricultural crops (Kharif & Rabi) for 2025-26 — https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2237560 — (tier: 1)
- [S2] Agriculture & Allied Sector GVA More Than Doubles to ₹48.77 Lakh Crore in 2023-24; Foodgrain Production Continues to Rise — https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2237739 — (tier: 1)
