PROVISIONAL ESTIMATES OF INDEX OF CORE INDUSTRIES FOR THE MONTH OF JULY 2026, AND FINAL INDEX FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE 2026 WITH BASE YEAR 2022-23

1. At a Glance

• ICI measures monthly production performance of core/infrastructure industries; it is a leading indicator for the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), feeding it with a combined weight of 32.88% [1].
• July 2026 marks the first full monthly cycle under the newly revised series with base year 2022-23 (replacing the 2011-12 base), released for the first time on 20 July 2026 [2].
• Iron Ore has been added as a ninth core industry, ending the long-standing "Eight Core Industries" nomenclature [1][2].
• Relevant for Prelims (index mechanics, base year, sectoral weights) and Mains GS-III (industrial growth, infrastructure bottlenecks).

2. Why in the News

• Provisional ICI for July 2026 and Final ICI for June 2026 released by the Office of Economic Adviser (OEA), DPIIT, Ministry of Commerce and Industry on 20 August 2026 [1].
• ICI growth moderated to 5.4% (y-o-y) in July 2026, down from a revised 6.0% in June 2026 [1].
• June 2026's final index was revised upward to 120.7 from the provisional estimate of 119.6, pushing June's growth from a provisional 5.0% to a final 6.0% [1].
• Cumulative growth for April–July 2026 stood at 4.3%, sharply higher than the 1.5% recorded in the same period a year earlier [1].

3. Background & Evolution

• ICI (earlier "Index of Eight Core Industries") has historically been compiled on base year 2011-12=100 [3].
• On 17–20 July 2026, the OEA/DPIIT released the first press release of the ICI new series with base year 2022-23, replacing the 2011-12 series [2].
• Rationale for revision: align base year with the revised IIP (base 2022-23), capture structural changes in industrial composition, and improve representativeness [4].
• Steel index now uses gross production (previously net production) for consistency with IIP methodology [4].
• Coal sector simplified to retain only raw coal, eliminating double counting [4].
• Back series of the new ICI (from April 2023 onward) placed on OEA's web portal (eaindustry.nic.in) [1].

4. Core Static Facts

Item	Detail
Compiling body	Office of Economic Adviser (OEA), DPIIT, Ministry of Commerce and Industry [1][4]
Old base year	2011-12=100 [3]
New base year	2022-23=100, effective from July 2026 release [2]
Number of core industries	9 (previously 8) — Coal, Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Refinery Products, Fertilizers, Steel, Cement, Electricity, Iron Ore (new) [4]
Weight in IIP	32.88% (combined) [1]
Largest weight sector (new series)	Electricity — 30.932% (up from 19.85%) [4]
Refinery Products weight	22.572% (down from 28.04%) [4]
Coal weight	5.596% (down from 10.33%) [4]
Natural Gas weight	3.841% (down from 6.88%) [4]
Fertilizers weight	2.731% (up from 2.63%) [4]
July 2026 ICI growth (provisional, y-o-y)	5.4% [1]
June 2026 ICI growth (final, y-o-y)	6.0% (revised up from provisional 5.0%) [1]
June 2026 final index value	120.7 (revised from provisional 119.6) [1]
April–July 2026 cumulative growth	4.3% (vs 1.5% same period last year) [1]
July 2026 top performer	Iron Ore, +29.5% y-o-y [1]

5. Multi-Dimensional Analysis

Economic

• ICI is a high-frequency leading indicator of industrial and infrastructure output, guiding IIP forecasts, monetary policy inputs (RBI), and GDP estimation for the "Mining & Quarrying," "Manufacturing," and "Electricity" sub-sectors [1].
• Moderation from 6.0% (June) to 5.4% (July 2026) signals a mild deceleration in infrastructure-linked output, though cumulative FY growth remains robust [1].
• Sector-level divergence (Iron Ore +29.5%, Electricity +9%, Cement +13.1% vs contraction in Natural Gas, Crude Oil, Refinery Products, Fertilizers) indicates uneven sectoral recovery [1][6].

Statistical/Methodological

• Base-year revision realigns ICI weights with the updated industrial structure captured in IIP (2022-23 base), improving measurement accuracy of contemporary economic activity [4].
• Methodological changes (gross vs net steel output, raw-coal-only counting) address double-counting and definitional inconsistencies flagged in the earlier series [4].

Administrative/Governance

• Housed under DPIIT (not the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation), a common Prelims confusion point [1].
• Timely provisional-then-final release cycle (data revised within ~30 days) demonstrates standard statistical practice akin to IIP/CPI revisions [1].

6. Recent Developments (last 12–18 months)

• 17–20 July 2026: OEA/DPIIT releases first press release of ICI new series, base year 2022-23, adding Iron Ore as 9th core industry [2][4].
• 20 August 2026: ICI provisional for July 2026 and final for June 2026 released; July growth 5.4%, June final growth revised to 6.0% [1].
• Back series of new ICI made available from April 2023 onward on eaindustry.nic.in [1].
• Prior months (Jan–May 2026) were still reported under the old 2011-12 base series, e.g., May 2026 index released under "Eight Core Industries (Base Year 2011-12)" nomenclature [5].

7. Prelims Hooks

• ICI's combined weight in IIP is 32.88% [1].
• New ICI base year: 2022-23, replacing 2011-12 [2].
• Compiling authority: Office of Economic Adviser, DPIIT, Ministry of Commerce and Industry (not MoSPI) [1].
• Ninth core industry added: Iron Ore [4].
• Largest-weight core industry in new series: Electricity (30.932%) [4].
• July 2026 provisional ICI growth: 5.4% y-o-y [1].
• June 2026 final ICI growth (revised): 6.0% y-o-y (up from provisional 5.0%) [1].
• June 2026 final index value: 120.7 [1].
• April–July 2026 cumulative core sector growth: 4.3% [1].
• Top-performing core sector in July 2026: Iron Ore, +29.5% [1].
• Steel index now measured on gross production basis (previously net) [4].
• Coal sub-index retains only raw coal to avoid double counting [4].
• ICI release follows a provisional-then-final two-stage cycle (~1 month lag for finalisation) [1].

8. Mains Relevance

• GS-III: Indian Economy — Industrial Growth, Infrastructure (energy, ports, roads, etc.), Economic Survey statistical indicators.
• Syllabus heading: "Issues related to Industrial Growth", "Infrastructure".
• Possible question stems:
• "Discuss the significance of the Index of Core Industries as a leading indicator for industrial performance in India. What implications does the revision of its base year to 2022-23 have for policy analysis?" (GS-III)
• "Examine the rationale behind periodic base-year revisions of key economic indices (IIP, CPI, ICI) in India. How do such revisions affect inter-temporal comparability of data?" (GS-III)
• "Analyse the recent trends in core sector growth in India (2025-26) and their implications for the manufacturing and infrastructure sectors." (GS-III)

9. Related Topics to Study Next

• Index of Industrial Production (IIP) — ICI is a direct sub-component/leading indicator of IIP.
• Wholesale Price Index (WPI) / Consumer Price Index (CPI) — parallel examples of base-year revision methodology.
• GDP base year revision debates in India — comparative statistical governance issue.
• National Statistical Office (NSO) / MoSPI vs DPIIT — institutional mandate distinctions in economic data compilation.
• Make in India / National Manufacturing Policy — policy context for core sector performance.
• PM Gati Shakti / National Infrastructure Pipeline — infrastructure linkage to core industries like cement, steel, electricity.
• Mining sector reforms (MMDR Act amendments) — relevant given Iron Ore's new inclusion.

10. Common Errors / Trap Areas

• Confusing the compiling agency: it is DPIIT's Office of Economic Adviser, not MoSPI/NSO (which compiles IIP and CPI) [1].
• Assuming ICI still covers only eight industries — as of the 2022-23 base series, it covers nine (Iron Ore added) [4].
• Mixing up provisional vs final figures — June 2026 provisional (5.0%) was revised to a final 6.0%, a common trap for exact-number MCQs [1].
• Forgetting the base year distinction: pre-July 2026 releases use 2011-12=100; from the July 2026 release onward, use 2022-23=100 [2][3].
• Misremembering sectoral weights — Electricity, not Refinery Products, is now the single largest-weight sector after revision (previously Refinery Products was largest) [4].