PROVISIONAL INDEX OF CORE INDUSTRIES FOR THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER 2026, AND FINAL INDEX FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST 2026 WITH BASE YEAR 2022-23

1. At a Glance

• The Index of Core Industries (ICI) tracks monthly output of 9 core sectors: Coal, Natural Gas, Crude Oil, Refinery Products, Fertilizers, Steel, Cement, Electricity and Iron Ore. It is released by the Office of Economic Adviser (OEA), Ministry of Commerce & Industry [1][2].
• The new series uses base year 2022-23. It replaces the 2011-12 series and adds Iron Ore, taking the count from eight to nine sectors [2][3].
• Why it matters: ICI weights are taken from the IIP 2022-23 weights, scaled to 100. It comes out on the 20th of the following month, so it is an early signal of industrial output [1][2].
• Exam use: base-year revision, sector weights, the provisional vs final cycle, and the energy and infrastructure link for GS-III [1][2].

2. Why in the News

• On 21 Oct 2026, ICI grew 7.9% YoY in September 2026 (Provisional). That is up from 5.9% in August 2026 (Final) [1].
• August 2026 was revised from 119.2 to 120.4, and its growth from 4.8% to 5.9% [1].
• Cumulative growth for April–September 2026 was 5.1%, against 2.5% in the same period of 2025 [1].
• This is among the first releases of the new 2022-23 series, which began with the June 2026 data [2][3].

3. Background & Evolution

• Old series: "Index of Eight Core Industries", base 2011-12=100. It was still being published for January 2026 data [9].
• Pre-release notice (2026): OEA announced the revised series. It said Iron Ore was added because of its "extensive use… in industrial production and its significant contribution to industrial development" [3].
• First release of the new series (20 July 2026): It gave the provisional index for June 2026, plus a back series from April 2023 [2][3].
• Method changes: the Steel index now uses gross production data instead of net, to match the IIP. The linking factor for the overall index is 1.47 [2][3].
• Parallel IIP revision: MoSPI's Technical Advisory Committee unanimously endorsed 2022-23 as the new IIP base [6]. The first new-series IIP release followed [4], and the new IIP has been built into the Q1 2026-27 GDP estimates [7].

4. Core Static Facts

Sector weights, new series (total 100) [1][2]

• The top three (Electricity, Refinery Products, Steel) together weigh ≈71.1% (calculated from [1]).

September 2026 (P), YoY growth [1]

• Positive: Iron Ore 18.4, Electricity 11.4, Coal 10.7, Refinery Products 10.3, Cement 9.8, Steel 4.9.
• Negative: Fertilizers −11.7, Natural Gas −4.6, Crude Oil −1.4.

Annual and cumulative growth (%) [1]

New IIP 2022-23 weights (context) [4]

• Mining 11.053, Manufacturing 76.062, Electricity & Gas 10.865, Water Supply and Waste Management 2.020.
• MoSPI notes the new IIP has a wider scope, so the old and new series may not match one-to-one [5].

5. Multi-Dimensional Analysis

Economic

• The headline is driven mainly by power demand. Electricity grew ≥8% in every month from May to September 2026, and 13.1% in August [1].
• Rough contribution to September's 7.9% (calculated from S1 Annexure-I): Electricity ≈3.7 pp, Refinery ≈2.1 pp, Steel ≈1.0 pp, Iron Ore ≈0.75 pp, Coal ≈0.5 pp, Cement ≈0.4 pp. Fertilizers (≈−0.3 pp), Natural Gas and Crude Oil pulled it down.
• Steel is slowing: cumulative growth fell from 12.2% (Apr–Sep 25) to 4.3% (Apr–Sep 26) [1].
• Cement grew 10.1% cumulatively in Apr–Sep 26, a sign of construction and infrastructure demand [1].

Energy Security / Strategic

• Crude Oil and Natural Gas (combined weight ≈11.3) grew negatively in all 13 months from September 2025 to September 2026 [1]. Domestic upstream output is falling.
• Refinery output (+10.3%) is rising while domestic crude falls [1]. That points to refining based on imported crude.

Agricultural / Social

• Fertilizers fell −11.7% in September, −12.4% in August and −24.6% in March 2026 [1]. This affects input supply for the rabi season and the fertilizer subsidy bill.

Statistical / Governance

• Revising the base to 2022-23 brings the ICI in line with the new IIP. Adding Iron Ore and moving Steel to gross production improve how well the index represents the economy [2][3][4].
• Provisional figures can change a lot. The August 2026 YoY rose 1.1 pp on revision [1].
• Bases differ: ICI is compiled by OEA, while IIP is compiled by MoSPI [1][5]. Both now use 2022-23 [2][4].

Mining / Resources

• Iron Ore is the most volatile sector. Its YoY ranged from 5.5% (August 2026) to 44.5% (June 2026), and it grew 33.3% in March 2026 [1].

6. Recent Developments (last 12–18 months)

• January 2026: the old 2011-12 series was still being published [9].
• May 2026: IIP grew 5.1% [8].
• 2026: MoSPI released the first new-series IIP with base year 2022-23 [4][6].
• 20 July 2026: first new-series ICI release. June 2026 provisional index 119.6; Iron Ore up 43.9%; Apr–Jun 2026 cumulative growth 3.6% [2].
• Q1 2026-27 GDP estimates used the new IIP and the new Output PPI series [7].
• 21 October 2026: September 2026 provisional +7.9%; August final +5.9% [1].
• Next: October 2026 ICI due 20 November 2026 [1].

7. Prelims Hooks

• ICI is compiled by the Office of Economic Adviser, Ministry of Commerce & Industry, not MoSPI [1].
• The new ICI base year is 2022-23. It replaced 2011-12 [2].
• The new series has 9 core industries. Iron Ore is the added sector [2][3].
• Electricity has the highest weight (30.932) [1].
• Fertilizers has the lowest weight (2.731) [1].
• Refinery Products (22.572) outweighs Steel (17.584) [1].
• ICI weights come from IIP 2022-23 weights, scaled pro-rata to 100 [2].
• The Steel index now uses gross (not net) production [3].
• The linking factor between the old and new overall series is 1.47 [2].
• The provisional ICI is released on the 20th of the following month [1].
• September 2026 ICI growth was 7.9% (P). Iron Ore grew fastest at 18.4% [1].
• April–September 2026 cumulative growth was 5.1%, against 2.5% a year earlier [1].
• ICI growth was 4.3% in 2024-25 and 3.0% in 2025-26 [1].
• The new-series back data starts from April 2023 [1][2].
• In the new IIP, Manufacturing has a weight of 76.062 [4].

8. Why 7.9% Is Partly a Bounce From a Weak Year

• A big rise after a weak year looks bigger than it is
• The base effect means this: growth is measured against the same month last year. If last year was weak, even ordinary output this year shows up as fast growth.
• Overall ICI grew only 2.5% in Apr–Sep 2025. So this year's 5.1% is measured against a low starting point [1].

• Average the two years together and the real pace is about 3.8% a year. That is below the 4.3% of 2024-25 (our calculation from [1]).

• Electricity is the clearest example

• Electricity grew just 1.0% in Apr–Sep 2025 and 1.1% in all of 2025-26 [1].
• So the 10.2% in Apr–Sep 2026 is mostly catching up on a flat year. Over the two years it averages about 5.5% a year, close to the 5.1% of 2024-25 (our calculation from [1]).

• Demand is real, though. Peak demand hit an all-time high of 256.1 GW on 25 April 2026, and consumption grew 8.9% in 1–27 April [13].

• The same logic works the other way for Steel and Iron Ore

• Steel's slowdown to 4.3% comes after a very strong 12.2% the year before. Over the two years Steel still averages about 8.2% a year. It is cooling, not collapsing (our calculation from [1]).

• Iron Ore's 21.2% comes after a −2.8% fall. Over the two years it averages about 8.5% a year (our calculation from [1]).

• Exam use: when a growth rate looks dramatic, check the same period a year earlier first. A two-year average is a fair way to show the underlying trend in a Mains answer.

9. Why Fertilizer Output Fell: Urea Runs on Imported Gas

• Urea is made from natural gas, and much of that gas comes from West Asia
• Urea plants use natural gas as both raw material and fuel.
• In 2026, the conflict in West Asia disrupted LNG (liquefied natural gas, which arrives by ship). Qatar declared force majeure, a legal notice that it could not deliver because of events beyond its control. That hit about 30 MMSCMD (million standard cubic metres per day) of gas India used to import from the Gulf [12].

• Domestic gas could not fill the gap. Crude Oil and Natural Gas fell year-on-year in every one of the 13 months to September 2026 [1].

• The government had to ration gas, and plants ran below their need

• Fertilizer plants were put in a priority category for gas. They were guaranteed at least 70% of their average use over the previous six months [10].
• Before an extra spot purchase (gas bought for immediate delivery at market price), plants were getting only 62% of the gas they needed. The purchase raised supply from 32 to 39.31 MMSCMD, or 76% of need [11].

• Even after that, plants were short of gas. This fits the steep falls in the index: −24.6% in March, −12.4% in August and −11.7% in September 2026 [1]. (The ICI release does not give a cause. The link to gas is our reading of the dates.)

• The index makes this problem look small

• Fertilizers have the lowest weight, 2.731 [1]. A −11.7% fall takes only about 0.3 pp (percentage points) off the headline.
• The weight reflects the sector's share of industrial output value. It does not reflect how much farmers depend on it. Less local urea means more imports and a larger subsidy bill.
• The government secured urea from abroad through global tenders, about 25 LMT (lakh tonnes) in April and 17.7 LMT in June 2026 [14]. That keeps supply going, but it buys from the same tight world market.

10. Refineries Grow While Oil Fields Shrink: The Cost to India

• Rising refinery output does not mean India is producing more oil
• Refinery Products grew 10.3% in September, but Crude Oil fell 1.4% [1].
• Refineries process crude. If more crude is processed while less is pumped at home, the extra crude must be imported.

• Refinery Products carry a weight of 22.572, against 7.43 for Crude Oil [1]. So the headline index rewards refining and hardly registers the upstream decline.

• The fall in domestic output is old, not new

• As far back as 2015, the government told Parliament that output was falling because of the natural decline of ageing fields run by ONGC and OIL [15].

• A field produces less every year as its pressure drops, unless new fields are found and developed. The 13-month run of negative growth in Crude Oil and Natural Gas shows that new output is not making up for it [1].

• The 2026 crisis showed what that costs

• During the West Asia disruption, the Petroleum Minister had to make a statement in Parliament on measures to protect supply [12].

• Each unit of crude or gas not produced at home must be bought abroad, paid for in dollars, and shipped through routes that can be cut off.

• What should follow

• The fertilizer gas priority [10] and spot purchases [11] are emergency fixes. They share out a shortage; they do not end it.
• The lasting fix sits with the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas: domestic gas output that does not fall every month. The core index is a monthly check on whether that is happening.

11. Why One Sector Can Swing the Whole Index

• Three sectors decide most of the result
• Electricity, Refinery Products and Steel together weigh about 71% [1].
• Electricity alone gave about 3.7 pp of September's 7.9%, nearly half the headline (calculated from [1]).

• So a hot summer, a heatwave or a late monsoon, which push up power use, can lift the whole index even if factories are not doing much more.

• The first figure is often wrong

• August 2026 growth was first shown as 4.8%. A month later it was revised to 5.9% [1].
• June's index moved from 119.6 to 120.7, and its Iron Ore growth from 43.9% to 44.5% [1][2].

• A change of 1 pp is large when the headline itself is only 5–8%. The early number is useful for direction, not for exact size.

• The new series cannot simply be set beside the old one

• The old and new overall series are joined using a linking factor of 1.47. This is a multiplier that puts old index values on the new scale [2].
• The new series also has a ninth sector (Iron Ore) and measures Steel by gross output [3]. Growth before April 2023 comes from a different basket of industries.

• MoSPI itself warns that the old and new IIP may not match one-to-one [5]. The same caution applies to the ICI.

• How to read the next release (20 November 2026)

• Check whether last month's figure was revised, and by how much [1].
• Check how much of the growth comes from Electricity. If it is most of the headline, read it as a power-demand story, not a broad industrial recovery.
• Check the same month a year earlier before calling any growth rate strong or weak.

12. Anchors for Answers

• Data: ICI grew 5.1% in Apr–Sep 2026 against 2.5% a year earlier. The two-year average is about 3.8%, below the 4.3% of 2024-25 [1]
• Data: Electricity grew 10.2% in Apr–Sep 2026 after just 1.0% in Apr–Sep 2025. This is mostly a recovery from a weak year [1]
• Data: All-time peak power demand of 256.1 GW on 25 April 2026 [13]
• Data: Gas supply to urea plants was only 62% of need. A spot purchase raised it from 32 to 39.31 MMSCMD (76% of need) [11]
• Data: Qatar's force majeure hit about 30 MMSCMD of gas that India imported from the Gulf [12]
• Data: Crude Oil and Natural Gas output fell year-on-year in all 13 months from September 2025 to September 2026 [1]
• Report/Committee: MoSPI Technical Advisory Committee on Base Year (IIP). It endorsed 2022-23 as the new base, and the ICI weights now come from that IIP [6]

13. Mains Relevance

• GS-III: Indian Economy (growth, development, mobilisation of resources); Infrastructure (Energy, Ports, Roads); Industrial Policy and its effect on industrial growth.
• GS-III (secondary): Energy security; agricultural inputs (fertilizers).
• Possible question stems: 1. Explain why the base years of macro-economic indices are revised periodically. Discuss the significance of the 2022-23 base revision of the IIP and Index of Core Industries. 2. Persistent contraction in domestic crude oil and natural gas output alongside rising refinery throughput poses energy-security challenges for India. Examine. 3. Core sector indices are seen as lead indicators of industrial activity. Critically evaluate their reliability given provisional-to-final revisions and sectoral weight concentration.

14. Related Topics to Study Next

• IIP (base year 2022-23): ICI weights are taken from it, and it is compiled by MoSPI.
• GDP base revision and the new Output PPI: these were built into the Q1 2026-27 GDP estimates.
• WPI and CPI base revisions: the same exercise of updating statistics to a new base year.
• India's crude import dependence and the upstream exploration policy: explains why crude and gas keep contracting.
• Fertilizer subsidy and nutrient-based subsidy: linked to the fall in fertilizer output.
• Steel and iron ore policy, and the National Steel Policy: Iron Ore is new in ICI and steel growth is slowing.
• Peak power demand and the energy transition: Electricity is the heaviest-weighted sector.
• PMI (Manufacturing and Services): another high-frequency lead indicator to compare with ICI.

15. NCERT Concepts to Revise

• Base year revision (Economy): The note's core change: ICI moved from 2011-12 to 2022-23, adding Iron Ore and updating weights.
• Base effect (Economy): Explains why 7.9% growth looks big: it is measured against a weak year-earlier base.
• Index of Industrial Production (Economy): ICI weights come from the IIP 2022-23 weights, so the two indices are closely linked.
• Eight core industries (Economy): The old eight-sector index that the new nine-sector ICI replaces; a common exam trap.
• Energy security (Economy): Falling crude and gas output, with refining rising on imports, makes India vulnerable to supply shocks.
• Nutrient-based subsidy (Economy): Fertiliser output falls raise imports and the subsidy bill, linking the index to farm input policy.

16. Common Errors / Trap Areas

• Wrong compiler: ICI comes from the OEA, Ministry of Commerce & Industry. IIP comes from MoSPI [1][5].
• "Eight core industries" is out of date: the new series has nine, with Iron Ore added [2].
• Weights and growth are different things: Iron Ore grew fastest in September 2026, but Electricity contributed most because it has the heaviest weight (calculated from [1]).
• Provisional vs final figures: June 2026 was provisionally 119.6 with Iron Ore at +43.9% [2]. The final figures are 120.7 and +44.5% [1]. Use final figures when they are available.
• Old IIP share figures: do not carry over shares from the 2011-12 series (such as the eight cores' share of IIP). The new IIP has a wider scope and the series may not correspond directly [5].