UPSC Prelims 2024 Q41: Total Fertility Rate Definition — Explained
The total fertility rate in an economy is defined as:
- the number of children born per 1000 people in the population in a year.
- the number of children born to a couple in their lifetime in a given population.
- the birth rate minus death rate.
- the average number of live births a woman would have by the end of her child-bearing age.
Answer: (d) the average number of live births a woman would have by the end of her child-bearing age.
Statement-wise explanation
- a: incorrect — This describes the crude birth rate (CBR). CBR counts live births in a year per 1,000 people of the whole mid-year population, including men, children and the elderly. Because it is measured against the total population, it depends on the age structure. It does not tell you how many children an average woman has.
- b: incorrect — TFR is measured per woman, not per couple. It is also not a count of the children actually born over a lifetime. It is a period measure built from the birth rates seen at each age in one year. The number of children women actually had by the end of their reproductive years is a different measure, called completed fertility.
- c: incorrect — Birth rate minus death rate is the rate of natural increase. It is the growth of a population without migration, usually per 1,000 people. It measures population growth, not fertility.
- d: correct — WHO defines TFR as the average number of children a hypothetical group of women would have by the end of their reproductive period if they had the current age-specific fertility rates all their lives. It is the sum of the age-specific fertility rates for women aged 15–49. India's TFR was 2.0 in NFHS-5 (2019–21), down from 2.2 in NFHS-4 (2015–16).
How to eliminate
Look at the word 'total'. It points to adding up births over a whole reproductive span, which already favours the two lifetime options. The per-1,000-people option is the crude birth rate: any rate stated 'per 1000 population' is a crude rate, not a total rate. Birth rate minus death rate is the natural growth rate, a growth measure rather than a fertility measure, so it can go. That leaves two lifetime options. Demographers measure fertility per woman (TFR is always 'children per woman'), never per couple. The 'couple' version is the trap. If you remember the line 'TFR = children per woman; replacement level = 2.1', the question takes seconds.
Know more
Total fertility rate (TFR) is a synthetic or period measure. Take this year's age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for women aged 15–49 and add them up. If five-year age groups are used, multiply the sum by 5. The result is the number of children one woman would have if she lived through her reproductive years at today's rates. Since it ignores age structure and mortality, TFR can be compared across countries and years. Crude rates cannot.
Replacement-level fertility is a TFR of about 2.1. Two children replace the parents. The extra 0.1 makes up for children who die before reaching reproductive age and for the slight excess of male births. Where child mortality is high, the replacement level is higher. The National Population Policy 2000 and the National Health Policy 2017 set 2.1 as India's goal. NFHS-5 (2019–21) recorded 2.0, and the SRS 2021 report also puts TFR at 2.0 (it was 2.3 in 2014).
| Measure | What it counts | Unit |
|---|---|---|
| Crude birth rate | Live births in a year | per 1,000 mid-year population |
| General fertility rate | Live births in a year | per 1,000 women aged 15–49 |
| Age-specific fertility rate | Births to women of one age group | per 1,000 women of that age |
| Total fertility rate | Sum of ASFRs | children per woman |
| Natural growth rate | CBR − CDR | per 1,000 population |
| Completed fertility | Children actually born to a group of women by age 49–50 | children per woman |
A population can keep growing for decades after TFR falls below 2.1. This is population momentum: the large young generations born earlier are still entering their childbearing years.
NCERT Concepts to Revise
- Total fertility rate: The question asks for the exact definition of this term, so the wording of the definition decides the answer.
- Crude birth rate: One option is worded per 1,000 people per year. Know which measure that wording describes.
- Replacement-level fertility: TFR is most often quoted against the 2.1 replacement benchmark, so the two concepts are tested together.
- Population growth rate: Helps you tell growth measures, such as birth rate minus death rate, apart from fertility measures.