UPSC Prelims 2024 Q91: Sahel Coups and Instability — Explained
Consider the following statements:
Statement-I:
There is instability and worsening security situation in the Sahel region.
Statement-II:
There have been military takeovers/coups d'état in several countries of the Sahel region in the recent past.
Which one of the following is correct in respect of the above statements?
- Both Statement-I and Statement-II are correct and Statement-II explains Statement-I
- Both Statement-I and Statement-II are correct, but Statement-II does not explain Statement-I
- Statement-I is correct, but Statement-II is incorrect
- Statement-I is incorrect, but Statement-II is correct
Answer: (a) Both Statement-I and Statement-II are correct and Statement-II explains Statement-I
Statement-wise explanation
- Statement-I: correct — Security in the Sahel, especially the Central Sahel (Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger), has worsened steadily since 2012. Groups linked to al-Qaeda and the Islamic State have spread from northern Mali into Burkina Faso and Niger and are now pressing on coastal states such as Benin and Togo. Burkina Faso ranked first on the Global Terrorism Index 2024, and the UN Secretary-General told the Security Council in 2025 that the Sahel accounted for 51% of the world's terrorism deaths in 2024. Regional security arrangements also fell apart: the UN mission MINUSMA closed in Mali on 31 December 2023, and the G5 Sahel collapsed after Burkina Faso and Niger left it in December 2023.
- Statement-II: correct — The region has seen a run of coups. Mali had coups in August 2020 and May 2021, and Chad had a military takeover in April 2021. Guinea followed in September 2021, Burkina Faso had two coups in 2022 (January and September), and Niger had one on 26 July 2023. The statement does explain Statement-I. The juntas expelled French forces and ended the UN mission in Mali. Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger then left ECOWAS (announced January 2024) and the G5 Sahel. Losing these regional and international security partnerships let armed groups expand. The juntas themselves justified each coup by failing security, as Burkina Faso's September 2022 coup leaders did. So coups and insecurity feed each other in a cycle, and the official key treats Statement-II as an explanation.
How to eliminate
Statement-I is a broad claim that is safe to accept, because the Sahel has been in the news for years for jihadist violence and displacement. Statement-II also only needs basic current-affairs knowledge: the Niger coup of July 2023 got wide coverage. Once both are accepted, the only choice left is whether II explains I. A simple test is to put 'because' between them: 'Instability is worsening because there have been military takeovers.' That reads as a reasonable cause and effect. Coups removed elected governments, drove out Western and UN security partners, and broke up regional groupings, all of which weakened counter-terrorism efforts. In Statement-I/II questions on current affairs, UPSC usually treats the second statement as the explanation when it describes a process that directly adds to the condition in the first. Fact to remember: the coup belt of Mali (2020, 2021), Chad (2021), Guinea (2021), Burkina Faso (2022 twice), Niger (2023), and Sudan (2021) further east.
Know more
The Sahel is a semi-arid belt about 5,000 km long between the Sahara to the north and the Sudanian savanna to the south. It runs from Senegal and Mauritania on the Atlantic to Sudan and Eritrea on the Red Sea. Rainfall is roughly 200–600 mm a year and highly variable, so drought and desertification are recurring problems. The African Union's Great Green Wall (2007) targets this region.
Why the region is unstable
- Jihadist spread since the 2012 Tuareg rebellion and Islamist takeover of northern Mali.
- Weak state presence across large, thinly governed areas.
- Farmer–herder conflicts made worse by climate stress.
- Smuggling, gold mining and arms flows from post-2011 Libya.
- A string of coups since 2020.
Recent coups in the Sahel and nearby
| Country | Coup(s) | Leader after coup |
|---|---|---|
| Mali | Aug 2020, May 2021 | Assimi Goïta |
| Chad | Apr 2021 (military council) | Mahamat Déby |
| Guinea | Sep 2021 | Mamady Doumbouya |
| Burkina Faso | Jan 2022, Sep 2022 | Ibrahim Traoré |
| Niger | Jul 2023 | Abdourahmane Tchiani |
How regional security arrangements changed
- G5 Sahel (2014: Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Chad). Mali left in 2022, Burkina Faso and Niger left in December 2023, and the group effectively dissolved.
- MINUSMA: the UN mission in Mali (2013–2023). Its mandate was ended by UNSC Resolution 2690 (June 2023) at Mali's request, and it closed on 31 December 2023.
- Alliance of Sahel States (AES): a mutual-defence pact formed by Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger on 16 September 2023.
- ECOWAS exit: the three AES states announced withdrawal in January 2024, effective 29 January 2025.
In the news
The July 2023 coup in Niger completed a belt of military-ruled states across the Central Sahel. It was followed by MINUSMA's closure (December 2023), the formation of the Alliance of Sahel States (September 2023) and the three juntas' announcement in January 2024 that they would leave ECOWAS. All of this was in the news in the months before the 2024 Prelims.
NCERT Concepts to Revise
- Sahel: Both statements concern the Sahel, so you need to know which belt of countries the question refers to.
- Sahara: The Sahel is defined by its position on the Sahara's southern edge, which helps place the countries discussed.