Population projection
Also called: MoHFW population projections, Technical Group on Population Projections · Topic: Economic Data: Census, NSS, Surveys and Statistical Tools · NCERT: Beyond NCERT
Meaning
A population projection estimates how many people a country will have in future years, with their age and sex. It starts from the last Census and assumes trends in births, deaths and migration. In India, a Technical Group of the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare (MoHFW) makes these projections. Its latest report, the Report of the Technical Group on Population Projections 2011–2036 (July 2020), is built on Census 2011. Projections matter because surveys measure ratios, and a ratio needs a population figure before it becomes a headcount:
Absolute number = survey ratio × projected population
Example
The Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) measures the worker population ratio (WPR), the share of people aged 15+ who are employed. For July–September 2026, the WPR was 52.7%. PLFS multiplied this ratio by MoHFW's projected 15+ population and got about 57.9 crore employed persons. Because the projection rests on Census 2011, this headcount will be wrong by the same amount if the real population differs from the projection, even when the WPR itself is accurate.
Don't confuse with
- Census: a Census is an actual house-to-house count of every person on a fixed reference date. A projection is only an estimate for the years between Censuses, and it gets less reliable as the last Census gets older.
- Sample estimate: a sample survey like PLFS gives a ratio (such as 52.7%) from a small part of the population. The projection supplies the total population that this ratio is applied to.