Provisional estimates
Also called: PE · Topic: National Income Accounting: GDP, GVA and Welfare · NCERT: Class 12, Ch 2 "National Income Accounting"
Meaning
Provisional estimates (PE) are the first fairly complete official national income figures for a financial year. They are not yet final. The National Statistical Office (NSO) under MoSPI releases them on 31 May, soon after the year ends. They are later replaced by First, Second and Third Revised Estimates as fuller data come in.
Example
NCERT's tables for 2024-25 use provisional estimates: GDP of about ₹187.97 lakh crore and GVA at basic prices of about ₹171.87 lakh crore, both at constant 2011-12 prices. These numbers may change in later revisions.
Don't confuse with
- Advance estimates: these come out before the year ends. The First Advance Estimates come in early January and feed the Union Budget. The Second Advance Estimates come at the end of February.
- Revised estimates: these are released in later years and use more complete data.