Replacement level fertility
Topic: Measuring Development: Income, HDI and Sustainability · NCERT: Beyond NCERT
Meaning
Replacement level fertility is the total fertility rate at which each generation exactly replaces itself, ignoring migration. It is about 2.1 children per woman. The figure is a little above 2 because some children die before they grow up and have children of their own. It is higher where child mortality is high. If fertility stays below this level for a long time, the population will age and later shrink.
Example
India's TFR was 2.0 in NFHS-5 (2019-21), just below replacement. All but five states and UTs are at or below 2.1. Bihar (about 3.0), Meghalaya, UP, Jharkhand and Manipur are still above it. This creates a north–south divide: an ageing south and a young north.
Don't confuse with
- Total Fertility Rate (TFR): TFR is the actual average number of children per woman at current birth rates. Replacement level is the benchmark (about 2.1) that TFR is compared against.
Related concepts
- Population growth rate
- Population density
- Sex ratio
- Son preference
- Total fertility rate
- Urbanisation
- Dependency ratio
- Demographic window of opportunity
- Ageing population
- Population pyramid