Trend
Also called: Long-term trend · Topic: Economic Data: Census, NSS, Surveys and Statistical Tools · NCERT: Class 11, Ch 4 "Presentation of Data"
Meaning
A trend is the long-term direction in which a time series moves, upward, downward or flat, once short-term ups and downs are ignored. It is best seen on an arithmetic line graph, which has time on the X-axis. Knowing the trend helps in forecasting and planning.
Example
Between 1993-94 and 2013-14, India's exports rose from 698 to 19,050 and its imports from 731 to 27,154, in units of Rs 100 crore. Both show a clear rising trend. Imports stayed higher throughout, and the gap widened after 2001-02.
Don't confuse with
- Seasonality and cyclicity: these are repeating swings around the trend. Seasonality repeats within a year, and cyclicity over more than a year. The trend is the long-run path underneath them.
Related concepts
- Time series
- Seasonality
- Cyclicity
- Compound annual growth rate
- Leading indicators
- Purchasing Managers' Index