Traditional weather prediction
Topic: Atmosphere: Composition, Structure and Elements of Weather · NCERT: Class 7, Ch 2 "Understanding the Weather"; Class 7, Ch 3 "Climates of India"; Class 9, Ch 3 "Atmosphere and Climate"
Meaning
Traditional weather prediction means forecasting rain and the monsoon from signs in nature and in the sky, long before modern instruments. People watched ants moving their eggs to higher ground, frogs croaking, birds flying low and pine cones closing in humid air. Ancient Indian texts used astronomy. Krishi-Parashara used the positions of the Sun and Moon. Varahamihira's Brihat Samhita used the nakshatras, the 27 lunar mansions (star groups along the Moon's path). This knowledge was based on long observation, but it was not measured.
Example
Kalidasa's Meghadutam traces the path of monsoon clouds as they move north across India towards the Himalaya. The Arthashastra records that rainfall was measured, an early step towards systematic study.
Don't confuse with
- Meteorology: the systematic, measured study of weather using instruments, weather stations and computer models. Traditional prediction relies on natural signs.