Discuss the economic and governance factors behind the shift from a dominant-party system to coalition politics in South Africa. What lessons does it hold for Indian democracy?

The African National Congress (ANC) led South Africa out of apartheid in 1994. It once polled above 70%, but fell to 40.18% in 2024 [2] and to just above 30% in the 2026 local polls [1]. This fall came mainly from failures on the economy and in governance, not from one strong rival.

Economic factors

• Poverty and joblessness: poverty stands at 63% and expanded unemployment at 41%, a level "rarely seen outside war zones" [1].
• Youth exclusion: about three in five people aged 15–24 are jobless [3]. A generation born after apartheid judges the ANC on jobs, not on the liberation struggle.
• Entrenched inequality: the consumption Gini of 0.67 (2018) is among the highest in the world [3].
• Limits of welfare: the IMF estimates that matching the equity gains of a 10-point fall in unemployment would need about 40% more transfers [4]. Grants could not replace jobs.

Governance factors

• Corruption allegations have "hobbled" the party [1].
• Factionalism: a decade of feuding between the Zuma camp and the rest of the party [1] produced the Zuma-linked MK Party, which won 14.58% in 2024 [2]. The ANC split from within; voters did not simply switch.
• Outcome: the ANC lost its majority. It now leads a national coalition [1], with the DA second at 21.81% [2].

Lessons for Indian democracy

• Legitimacy wears off: as with the "Congress system" after 1967 and 1989, a party's historical record cannot replace delivery.
• Jobs over freebies: labour-market reforms help the youth most [5], which matters for India's demographic dividend.
• Intra-party democracy: factional feuds left unresolved create breakaway parties, as Congress splinters in several states showed.
• Coalition management: Common Minimum Programmes, such as the UPA's in 2004, show that coalitions can work around a shared agenda.
• Diplomacy: India should anchor ties with South Africa in BRICS, IBSA and the G20, not in party-to-party links.

South Africa's voters have punished economic and governance failure peacefully, through the ballot, and that shows democratic maturity. If coalition partners agree on a jobs-first agenda, accountability can deepen. For India, the lesson is that lasting legitimacy rests on inclusive growth and clean, internally democratic parties, in line with SDG 8 and SDG 16.