Why has the ANC suffered its worst electoral result?

1. At a Glance

• The African National Congress (ANC) led the anti-apartheid struggle and governed South Africa under Nelson Mandela and after him. In the 2026 local body polls it got just above 30% of the vote, its worst election result ever [1].
• The party ran a dominant-party system after universal suffrage ended apartheid in 1994, with vote shares at times above 70% [1]. It is now described as being in "freefall" and facing an "existential crisis" [1].
• This is the second big drop in two years. In the 2024 national election the ANC fell to about 40% and had to form a Government of National Unity (GNU) [2].
• UPSC relevance: South Africa is a BRICS/IBSA partner. The case shows how liberation-era parties lose dominance and how coalition politics works, which is useful for comparison with the Indian "Congress system" and coalition governments (GS-II).

2. Why in the News

• November 2026: The ANC won just above 30% of the vote in local body polls held across South Africa. This is its lowest share in any election since 1994 [1].
• The result comes two years after the ANC had to lead a coalition government for the first time since the end of apartheid [1][2].
• The ANC is still the most popular party by vote share and still leads the national coalition under President Cyril Ramaphosa [1].

3. Background & Evolution

• 1994: Universal suffrage ended apartheid. The ANC took charge of the new society under Nelson Mandela [1].
• 1994 to about 2024 ("nearly three decades"): The ANC dominated national politics with comfortable majorities, at times above 70% of the vote [1].
• Social gains: ANC rule lifted a significant part of the historically persecuted Black community into better living conditions and education [1].
• 2016 local polls: An early warning sign. The ANC suffered a major setback in the municipal elections and lost in the capital [3][4].
• Past decade: There was bitter infighting between the camp of former President Jacob Zuma (in office for nine years) and the rest of the party [1].
• 2024 national election: The ANC's share fell to about 40% and it lost its parliamentary majority. It formed a GNU, and the Democratic Alliance (DA) came second with almost 22% and joined the government [2].
• 14 June 2024: The newly elected National Assembly re-elected Cyril Ramaphosa as President [2].
• 2026 local polls: The ANC fell to just above 30%, its worst ever [1].

4. Core Static Facts

Item	Fact
Party	African National Congress (ANC), "Mandela's party" [1]
Political system before 2024	Dominant-party system after 1994 [1]
Peak vote share	At times above 70% [1]
2024 national vote share	About 40%, majority lost [2]
2024 runner-up	Democratic Alliance (DA), almost 22% [2]
Government type after 2024	Government of National Unity (GNU), a multi-party coalition [2]
President	Cyril Ramaphosa, re-elected by the National Assembly on 14 June 2024 [2]
2026 local poll vote share	Just above 30%, the worst ever [1]
Poverty rate	63% (the article cites the "2023 census") [1]
Unemployment (expanded definition)	41%, including discouraged job seekers [1]
Key factional figure	Jacob Zuma, former President with a nine-year tenure [1]

• Key terms:
• Dominant-party system: many parties compete in elections, but one party keeps winning and governing [1].
• Government of National Unity: a coalition of several parties in the national executive [2].
• Expanded unemployment: the jobless count that also includes discouraged job seekers who have stopped looking [1].

5. Multi-Dimensional Analysis

Economic: the main driver

• Poverty (63%) and unemployment (41%, expanded definition) have risen sharply. The article calls this unemployment level one "rarely seen outside war zones" [1].
• The ANC's legitimacy rested on delivering material improvement. As living conditions stalled, its core voters drifted away [1].

Governance / Ethical

• Corruption allegations and factionalism are named as the main reasons the party is "hobbled" [1].
• The fight between the Zuma and Ramaphosa camps split the party organisation and its voter base [1].

Social

• The ANC's early record of lifting the Black majority into better living conditions and education built its long-term loyalty [1].
• That loyalty is weakening as the social gains plateau [1].

Political / Historical: party-system change

• The vote share fell from above 70%, to about 40% in 2024, to about 30% in 2026 [1][2]. South Africa has moved from a dominant-party system to coalition politics.
• Indian parallel: the decline of the Congress system after 1967 and 1989, followed by the coalition era.
• A liberation-movement-turned-party draws on historical legitimacy, but that legitimacy fades as generations change.

Geopolitical / Strategic: India's interest

• South Africa is a BRICS, IBSA and G20 partner. The stability of its coalition affects policy continuity in Global South forums.
• A GNU that includes the market-oriented DA [2] may change economic and foreign-policy priorities. This bears on India–Africa trade and investment.

6. Recent Developments (last 12–18 months)

• November 2026: The ANC records its worst result, just above 30%, in local body polls across South Africa [1].
• November 2026: The ANC still has the highest vote share and leads the national GNU under Ramaphosa. Commentators describe its situation as an existential crisis [1].
• Ongoing: The 2024 GNU arrangement with the DA and other parties continues at the national level [2].

7. Prelims Hooks

• The ANC won just above 30% in South Africa's 2026 local body polls, its worst result ever [1].
• Apartheid ended with universal suffrage in 1994 [1].
• The ANC first led the post-apartheid government under Nelson Mandela [1].
• At its peak, the ANC's vote share was above 70% [1].
• In the 2024 national election, the ANC fell to about 40% and lost its majority for the first time since apartheid ended [1][2].
• After 2024, South Africa has been governed by a Government of National Unity (GNU) [2].
• The Democratic Alliance came second in 2024 with almost 22% and joined the GNU [2].
• Cyril Ramaphosa was re-elected President by the National Assembly, not by direct popular vote, on 14 June 2024 [2].
• South Africa's poverty rate is 63%, according to the census cited by The Hindu [1].
• Expanded unemployment is 41%, which counts discouraged job seekers [1].
• Jacob Zuma served as President for nine years. Factional conflict with him marked the past decade [1].
• In the 2016 municipal polls the ANC lost in the capital [3][4].

8. Losing Votes Is Not the Same as Losing Power

• The ANC fell to about 30%, but it still runs the country
• The ANC is still the largest party by vote share. It still leads the national coalition under Ramaphosa [1].
• In 2024 the second party, the DA, got almost 22% [2]. No other party is close to a majority either.

• So the vote is not moving to one rival party. It is breaking up among many parties. The ANC stays in charge because it is the biggest piece left, not because voters chose it.

• Why this matters for how the country is governed

• With no majority, the ANC has to bargain with partners on every big decision. In 2024 it had to bring the DA into the Government of National Unity (GNU, a coalition of several parties in the national executive) [2].

• A local poll does not change who holds national power. But it shows the ANC's bargaining position getting weaker before the next national election.

• How to write it in Mains: call it "decline without replacement". The ANC's dominance is ending, but no new dominant party has taken its place.

9. Where the Lost Votes Went: The Party Split, Voters Did Not Simply Switch

• Much of the ANC's fall comes from people inside the ANC breaking away
• The note puts the cause on infighting between the Zuma camp and the rest of the party [1].
• That fight turned into a separate party. The uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) Party, linked to Jacob Zuma, was formed in 2023 and contested the 2024 national election [8].

• A breakaway party takes the ANC's own voters. It uses the same liberation-era language and the same history. A rival with a different ideology, like the market-oriented DA, cannot do this as easily.

• Why this makes recovery harder

• If voters had just been angry about one bad term, a good term could win them back.

• When a faction leaves and builds its own party, its voters now have a permanent new home. Those votes do not easily come back.

• Indian parallel to use carefully: splits from the Congress (for example, regional parties set up by former Congress leaders) took away its base in many states. Use this as an example of how a dominant party breaks up from inside. Do not present it as an exact match.

10. Why Grants Cannot Replace Jobs

• The jobless problem is worst among the young
• The World Bank puts unemployment among 15–24-year-olds at 59.6%. The overall rate was 31.9% in Q4-2024 [5].
• The IMF reported youth unemployment at 57% in 2019 [7]. So this is not a sudden shock. Young people have been locked out of work for years.

• Young voters never lived under apartheid. They judge the ANC on jobs, not on the liberation struggle. That is why the ANC's historical legitimacy (its right to rule, earned by ending apartheid) [1] counts for less with them.

• Read the two unemployment numbers correctly

• 31.9% is the narrow rate (it counts only people still looking for work) [5].
• 41% is the expanded rate (it also counts discouraged job seekers who have stopped looking) [1].

• Quote both, and say which one you are using.

• Inequality is built into the economy

• South Africa's Gini coefficient (a measure of inequality: 0 means everyone is equal, 1 means one person has everything) was 0.67 in 2018. That is one of the highest in the world [5].

• Why welfare alone cannot fix this

• The IMF estimates that cutting unemployment by 10 percentage points would lower the Gini by 3% [6].
• To get the same fall in inequality through government transfers (cash grants) alone, transfers would have to rise by about 40% [6].
• A state that already has to share power cannot afford that. Jobs are the cheaper and more lasting fix. That is why voters blame the party for joblessness, even where grants exist.

11. The Case That This Is Democracy Working, Not Failing

• The strongest argument for this view
• A dominant party with above 70% of the vote [1] faces little pressure to perform. Losing votes forces it to listen.
• Voters punished poor results on poverty, jobs and corruption [1]. This is accountability (making rulers answer for results) through the ballot. There was no coup and no street violence.

• The 2024 power-sharing happened peacefully. The National Assembly re-elected the President and the runner-up party joined the government [2]. A young democracy handled its first loss of a majority calmly.

• What is right about it: this is a real gain. Many liberation-era parties in Africa held on to power by weakening elections. The ANC accepted a coalition instead.

• Where the argument falls short
• A healthy change of power needs a strong alternative party. Here the vote is breaking up into several parties [1][2]. That produces coalitions that must be renegotiated again and again.

• Breaking up does not fix unemployment. Partners who disagree on economic policy (for example, the market-oriented DA inside the GNU [2]) may block reforms instead of speeding them up.

• Balanced verdict for Mains: the shift is good for accountability. Whether it is good for governance depends on whether coalitions can agree on a jobs agenda.

12. What the Government and India Should Do Next

• GNU partners should put labour-market reform ahead of bigger cash transfers
• The IMF says labour-market reforms in South Africa would help the disadvantaged most, especially the youth [7].
• Its estimate that transfers would need to rise by about 40% to match the effect of more jobs [6] shows why grants alone cannot close the gap.

• A coalition can make this possible. A shared jobs programme gives partners who disagree on other issues something to agree on.

• The ANC has to deal with corruption and factionalism, not just change its message

• Corruption allegations and factionalism are named as the reasons the party is "hobbled" [1].

• The Zuma-camp split has already become a rival party [8]. Every new faction fight now risks another breakaway, not just a quarrel inside the party.

• India's MEA should deal with South Africa as a state, not through one party

• The ANC's long rule allowed partnerships built on party-to-party and liberation-era ties.
• South Africa is now governed by a coalition [2]. So India should anchor ties in BRICS, IBSA and G20 commitments, which outlast any single party.
• This protects continuity in Global South forums whoever leads the next coalition.

13. Anchors for Answers

• Data: Youth (15–24) unemployment in South Africa is 59.6%; overall narrow unemployment was 31.9% in Q4-2024 [5]
• Data: Consumption Gini of 0.67 (2018), one of the highest in the world [5]
• Data: ANC vote share fell from above 70% at its peak, to about 40% (2024 national), to just above 30% (2026 local) [1][2]
• Report/Committee: IMF Working Paper, "South Africa: Labor Market Dynamics and Inequality" (2016). A 10-point cut in unemployment lowers the Gini by 3%; matching that through transfers alone would need about 40% more transfers [6]
• Report/Committee: IMF Working Paper (2021) on South Africa's labour market. Reforms would help youth the most; youth unemployment was 57% in 2019 [7]
• Comparison: India's Congress system. Like the ANC, the Congress lost dominance partly through splits that created rival parties, which led to a coalition era. The ANC's breakaway is the Zuma-linked MK Party, formed in 2023 [8]

14. Mains Relevance

• GS-II, International Relations: "Effect of policies and politics of developed and developing countries on India's interests"; "Bilateral, regional and global groupings" (BRICS, IBSA, G20).
• GS-II, Polity: "Comparison of the Indian constitutional scheme with that of other countries"; party systems and coalition governance.
• GS-I, World History: decolonisation and the end of apartheid.
• Possible question stems: 1. "Liberation-era parties eventually lose electoral dominance." Examine with reference to the decline of the African National Congress in South Africa. 2. Discuss the economic and governance factors behind the shift from a dominant-party system to coalition politics in South Africa. What lessons does it hold for Indian democracy? 3. How might political realignment in South Africa affect India's engagement through BRICS and IBSA?

15. Related Topics to Study Next

• Dominant-party system and the "Congress system" in India: the closest Indian comparison for the ANC's trajectory.
• Coalition governments in India (1989–2014): compare coalition stability and the use of common minimum programmes with South Africa's GNU.
• Apartheid and Gandhi's South Africa phase: the historical link in India–South Africa ties and a GS-I topic.
• BRICS and IBSA: the forums in which South Africa's domestic politics matters to India.
• Electoral systems (proportional representation vs. FPTP): explains why coalitions form in South Africa and how India's system differs.
• Jobless growth and the youth-unemployment trap: an economic driver South Africa shares with many emerging economies.
• India–Africa relations (India-Africa Forum Summit): the wider strategic setting.

16. NCERT Concepts to Revise

• One-party dominance (Polity): Explains the ANC's post-1994 pattern of repeatedly winning above 70% in competitive elections, now ending.
• Party system (Polity): South Africa is shifting from a dominant-party system to a multi-party, coalition-based one.
• Coalition government (Polity): After 2024 the ANC lost its majority and leads a coalition, the Government of National Unity.
• Congress system (Polity): The closest Indian parallel to the ANC's rise and decline as a dominant liberation party.
• Apartheid (History): The ANC's legitimacy comes from leading the fight against apartheid, which ended in 1994.
• Proportional representation (Polity): South Africa's proportional system helps explain why coalitions form when one party's vote share falls.
• First-past-the-post system (Polity): Comparing it with India's system shows why India's dominant parties differ from South Africa's coalition outcomes.
• Unemployment (Economy): The 41% expanded unemployment rate is a main driver of voters leaving the ANC.
• Poverty (Economy): A 63% poverty rate shows the ANC's failure to deliver material improvement, eroding its support.
• BRICS (Economy): South Africa is a BRICS member, so its political stability matters for India's engagement.
• IBSA (Polity): IBSA is a forum linking India and South Africa, affected by South African political change.
• Youth unemployment (Economy): Youth joblessness is a key economic driver of discontent with the ruling party.

17. Common Errors / Trap Areas

• Mixing up the elections: about 40% was the 2024 national result [2]; about 30% is the 2026 local body result [1]. Do not swap the figures.
• Thinking the ANC is out of power: it still leads the national coalition and still has the largest vote share [1].
• How the President is chosen: South Africa's President is elected by the National Assembly [2], not directly by voters.
• Unemployment definition: the 41% figure is the expanded measure that includes discouraged job seekers [1]. The narrow official rate is lower.
• Party names: the Democratic Alliance was the second-largest party and a GNU partner in 2024 [2]. Do not confuse the ANC with the Indian National Congress, or the DA with other South African parties.