How might political realignment in South Africa affect India's engagement through BRICS and IBSA?

The African National Congress (ANC) once won over 70% of the vote. In South Africa's November 2026 local polls it fell to just above 30%. That came two years after it first had to lead a coalition government [1]. The country is moving from dominant-party rule to coalition politics. This will change India's engagement through BRICS and IBSA, but it will not break it.

Nature of the realignment

• Decline without replacement: the ANC is still the largest party and still leads the national coalition under Ramaphosa [1]. The vote is splitting among many parties rather than shifting to one rival.
• Domestic drivers: poverty stands at 63% and expanded unemployment at 41% [1]. Youth (15–24) unemployment is 59.6% [2]. Foreign policy is therefore likely to focus on jobs and investment.

Implications for BRICS

• Pragmatism over ideology: market-leaning coalition partners may soften an anti-Western tilt. This suits India's aim of a "non-Western, not anti-Western" BRICS.
• Economic convergence: a South Africa focused on jobs could favour trade, investment and critical-minerals cooperation with India inside BRICS.
• Risk of discontinuity: coalition deals that keep being renegotiated may slow positions on BRICS expansion or the New Development Bank. Ties built on liberation-era links between parties also lose force.

Implications for IBSA

• Democratic credentials strengthened: the 2024 handover to a coalition was peaceful. This supports IBSA's identity as a grouping of three large, plural democracies.
• Development partnership: the IBSA Fund (2004) for poverty and hunger alleviation [4] may matter more to a government under pressure to deliver.
• Risk of neglect: BRICS already overshadows IBSA. An inward-looking coalition may give it lower priority, which could weaken joint positions such as UNSC reform.

Way forward for India

• Build ties with the South African state, not one party, and engage all coalition partners.
• Offer skilling, digital public infrastructure and MSME partnerships that address the jobs crisis.

The realignment marks a more mature South African democracy, not a less reliable partner. India's ties have consolidated bilaterally and through BRICS and IBSA since the 1997 Strategic Partnership [3]. By rooting them in institutions and in shared development goals (SDG 8), India can keep Global South solidarity stable whoever leads the next coalition.