Instability in the Red Sea and Bab-el-Mandeb has direct consequences for India's economy and security. Discuss, and suggest India's policy options.

The Bab-el-Mandeb strait links the Indian Ocean to the Red Sea–Suez route, and about 80% of India's merchandise trade with Europe passes through the Red Sea [1]. Houthi attacks are continuing, and Yemen has returned to full-scale war [6]. India's growth and maritime security are therefore directly at stake.

Economic consequences

• Costlier trade: Suez container tonnage fell sharply as ships diverted around the Cape of Good Hope. Higher freight, insurance premiums and longer transit times make imports more expensive [1].
• Export competitiveness: Re-routing lengthens journeys and raises costs [2]. This hurts price-sensitive exporters, especially MSMEs.
• Energy and inflation: India depends heavily on West Asian crude, so freight and oil shocks feed domestic inflation.
• Diaspora: A wider war threatens the Gulf economies that employ millions of Indians and send home large remittances.

Security consequences

• Sea-lane attacks: The UN Panel of Experts recorded at least 25 attacks on merchant vessels in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden in one year [3].
• Terror–crime nexus: Somalia is becoming a transit hub for Houthi weapons, and cooperation between the Houthis and Al-Shabaab is growing [3]. This could bring piracy back in the western Indian Ocean.
• Naval overstretch: The Navy deployed over 30 ships and responded to over 25 incidents [4].
• Escalation: A Houthi advance towards a key Red Sea chokepoint raises the risk of a wider conflict [7].

Policy options for India

• Naval: Keep up the deployments that escorted over 230 merchant vessels [4]. Expand information-sharing through the Information Fusion Centre–Indian Ocean Region.
• Multilateral: Back the UNSC 2140 sanctions regime. Resolution 2837 (2026) targets dual-use components (civilian goods with military uses) and calls for curbing arms smuggling by land and sea [5]. Share seizure data, since the UN Panel of Experts finds the embargo ineffective without national enforcement [3].
• Economic resilience: Provide freight and credit support to exporters. Build domestic marine-insurance and shipbuilding capacity. Diversify crude suppliers and expand strategic petroleum reserves.
• Diplomatic: Balance ties with Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Iran. Support the UN Special Envoy's call for "politics rather than force" [8]. Pursue IMEC as a long-term alternative route.
• Capacity-building: Help coastal states of the Horn of Africa with surveillance of dhow routes, the small boats used for arms smuggling [3].

Instability at Bab-el-Mandeb raises India's trade costs and energy prices and puts its diaspora and seafarers at risk. India should combine naval presence, enforcement of UN rules, economic buffers and balanced diplomacy. This would carry forward the SAGAR vision and India's role as a net security provider in the Indian Ocean.