India's population and its data sources

Detail

1. How big is India's population?

• Census 2011 count: 1,210 million people (about 121 crore).
• World rank in 2011: India was second, after China.
• Scale: In 2011, India had more people than North America, South America and Australia put together.
• Why size matters: A large population is often blamed for:
• pressure on land, water, forests and food;

• social problems such as unemployment, crowded cities and poor services.

• NCERT's opening question: What is India?

• a territory (a piece of land with borders)?
• an amalgam of peoples (a mix of many groups)?
• or people living under shared institutions (a common Constitution, laws and government)?
• This framing treats people, not just land, as the core of the country. People are both a resource and a burden.

2. India as the most populous country

• Overtaking China: The UN projected that India's population would reach 1,425,775,850 in April 2023. At that point it would equal and then pass mainland China's [4].
• India: over 1.42 billion (2023).

• China's population began to shrink in 2022. Fewer births than deaths caused the fall.

• Peak: UN World Population Prospects (WPP) 2024 expects India's population to peak around 2064, at about 1.7 billion, and then fall slowly [5].

• WPP (World Population Prospects): the UN Population Division's official estimates and projections for every country, revised every two years.

• World context (WPP 2024): World population was 8.2 billion in 2024. It is projected to peak at about 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s [5].

• Old projection already passed: NCERT projected "1,350 million by 2025". India passed this figure before 2023.

Point	India	China
Rank, Census 2011 era	2nd	1st
Rank from April 2023 (UN)	1st [4]	2nd
Trend	Still growing; peak about 2064 [5]	Falling since 2022

3. Census of India: what it is

• Census: A full count of every person in the country at one fixed time. It also collects their social and economic details. India holds it once every 10 years (decennial).
• History:
• Early ideas of counting people appear in Kautilya's Arthashastra (321-296 BC) and in Abul Fazl's Ain-i-Akbari (Akbar's reign) [2].
• 1872: first census. It was non-synchronous: different regions were counted at different times. The official count ran from 1865 to 1872 [2].

• 1881: first synchronous census. The whole country was counted at the same time. Since then, a census has been held every 10 years [2].

• What the census records:

• number of people and density (people per sq km);
• literacy, workers (the type of work people do);
• language, religion;
• Scheduled Castes (SCs) and Scheduled Tribes (STs);

• migration (people moving from one place to another).

• Who runs it: the Registrar General and Census Commissioner of India, under the Ministry of Home Affairs.

• Legal base:
• Census Act, 1948 and Census Rules, 1990 [2].
• Census is a Union subject, at entry 69 of the Union List, Seventh Schedule of the Constitution. The Centre plans it. States and UTs help carry it out [2].

• Section 15 of the Census Act keeps each person's data confidential. It cannot be released under RTI, used as evidence in court, or shared with any institution [2].

• Census 2011: the 15th census, and the 7th since Independence.

4. Census 2027: the 16th census

• Number: 16th census overall and 8th since Independence [2].
• Delay: It was due in 2021 but was postponed because of COVID-19 [2].
• Notification: notified in the Gazette of India on 16 June 2025 [2][3].
• Budget: ₹11,718.24 crore approved by the Union Cabinet [2].
• Reference date ("Census Moment"): the exact moment the count refers to. It decides who is included, for example a baby born after this moment is not counted.
• 00:00 hours, 1 March 2027 for most of India [2][3].
• 00:00 hours, 1 October 2026 for Ladakh and the snow-bound areas of Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand. These areas are hard to reach in winter, so they are counted earlier [2].

Two phases

Phase	What it covers	When
I. Houselisting and Housing Census (HLO)	Housing condition, amenities such as water, toilet and electricity, household assets; creates the frame for Phase II	April–September 2026. Each State/UT picks a 30-day window, with an optional 15-day self-enumeration period just before it [2]
II. Population Enumeration (PE)	Each person's age, sex, education, work, migration, fertility and caste	February 2027; September 2026 for the snow-bound areas [2]

• First digital census [2]:
• HLO mobile app on Android and iOS, usable offline, in 16 regional languages. Enumerators send data straight from the field to the server, with no paper.
• CMMS portal (Census Management & Monitoring System): officers at sub-district, district, state and national level track progress in near real time.
• Houselisting Block Creator (HLBC): a web map that uses satellite imagery to draw houselisting blocks, so no area is missed or counted twice. This is the census using geospatial tools.

• Self-enumeration: households can fill in their own details online at se.census.gov.in in 16 languages. They get a Self-Enumeration ID, and the enumerator confirms the data during the visit.

• Administrative boundaries frozen: from 1 January 2026, so district and village borders stay fixed during the count [2].

• Caste enumeration:
• Decided by the Cabinet Committee on Political Affairs on 30 April 2025 [2].
• Until Census 2011, only SCs and STs were counted [2][3].
• This is the first full caste count since 1931, and the first since Independence [3].
• The NPR link is covered in the polity subject.

5. Data between two censuses

A census comes only once in 10 years. Planners need yearly figures, so three other sources fill the gap.

(a) Sample Registration System (SRS)

• What it is: a large sample survey run by the Registrar General of India. It does not count everyone. It records births and deaths again and again in a fixed set of sample villages and urban blocks.
• Full scale since about 1969-70.
• What it gives: yearly national and state estimates of [7]:
• birth rate (births per 1,000 people per year);
• death rate (deaths per 1,000 people per year);
• IMR (Infant Mortality Rate: deaths of babies under 1 year per 1,000 live births);
• TFR (Total Fertility Rate: the average number of children a woman would have in her lifetime);

• MMR (Maternal Mortality Ratio: mothers' deaths from pregnancy causes per 1 lakh live births).

• Recent figures (SRS Statistical Report 2023):

• IMR 25 per 1,000 live births in 2023, down from 26 (2022) and 44 (2011) [6].
• Birth rate 18.4 per 1,000 people (2023): rural 20.3, urban 14.9 [6].
• Under-five mortality rate (U5MR) 29 in 2023, down from 30 in 2022: rural 33, urban 20 [6].

(b) National Family Health Survey (NFHS)

• What it is: a large sample survey of households on population, health and nutrition.
• Run by: the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, with IIPS (International Institute for Population Sciences), Mumbai as the nodal agency (the lead body that runs it).
• NFHS-5 (2019-21):
• TFR 2.0, below the replacement level of 2.1. Replacement level is the number of children per woman needed to keep population size stable in the long run.

• Sex ratio: 1,020 women per 1,000 men. This was the first NFHS with more women than men.

• NFHS-6 (2023-24) [8]:

• covered about 6.79 lakh households in 715 districts;
• TFR stayed at 2.0, so fertility remains below replacement level;
• Contraceptive Prevalence Rate (CPR) rose from 66.7% to 69.1%. CPR is the share of couples using a family-planning method.

(c) Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS)

• Run by NSO, Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
• Yearly since 2017-18.
• Covers jobs: labour force participation, the worker population ratio, and the unemployment rate.

Which source gives which indicator (a Prelims favourite)

Indicator	Main source	How often
Total population, density, literacy, language, religion, SC/ST, migration	Census	Every 10 years
Birth rate, death rate, IMR, TFR, MMR (state-wise)	SRS	Every year
Nutrition (stunting, anaemia), contraception, household sex ratio, TFR	NFHS	About every 3–5 years
Employment and unemployment	PLFS	Every year (quarterly for urban areas)

Prelims Hooks

• First census 1872 was non-synchronous (counted 1865–1872); first synchronous census was 1881.
• Census 2011 = 15th census; Census 2027 = 16th overall and 8th since Independence.
• Census runs under the Census Act 1948 and Census Rules 1990. It is a Union List subject (entry 69, Seventh Schedule) under the Ministry of Home Affairs, not MoSPI.
• Census 2027 reference date: 1 March 2027. For snow-bound Ladakh, J&K, Himachal and Uttarakhand it is 1 October 2026.
• Census 2027 is the first digital census, with self-enumeration and the first full caste count since 1931. Until 2011, only SCs and STs were counted.
• SRS gives yearly IMR, birth rate, death rate, TFR and MMR. The census does not.
• NFHS is run by the Health Ministry, with IIPS Mumbai as the nodal agency, not the Registrar General.
• NFHS-5: TFR 2.0, sex ratio 1,020. NFHS-6 (2023-24): TFR still 2.0.
• SRS 2023: IMR 25. Rural birth rate (20.3) is higher than urban (14.9).
• India passed China in April 2023 (UN). WPP 2024 puts India's peak at about 1.7 billion around 2064.

Mains Points

• Census as the base for planning: Census data is used for:
• drawing constituency boundaries (delimitation) and reserving seats for SCs and STs;
• Finance Commission transfers and targeting welfare schemes.

• The gap from 2011 to 2027 means present policy still runs on 15-year-old figures. Estimates from SRS, NFHS and PLFS only partly fill this gap.

• Digital and geospatial shift: Census 2027 uses mobile apps, satellite-based block mapping (HLBC), real-time tracking (CMMS) and self-enumeration. These improve speed and coverage. They also raise concerns about data security and the digital divide, especially in rural, tribal and hill areas.

• Demographic turning point: India is now the most populous country, but its TFR (2.0) is already below replacement level. This means:
• the population will still grow until about 2064, because many young people are entering child-bearing age (population momentum);
• India must use its demographic dividend (the extra growth possible when the working-age share is high) before the population ages;

• southern states, with low fertility, and northern states, with high fertility, face different policy needs.

• Caste enumeration can help in setting reservation levels and targeting welfare. It also raises questions about how caste is classified and how the data is used.