Regional variation in growth and the fertility transition

Detail

1. Key terms

• Population growth rate: the change in a region's population between two censuses, given as a percentage of the earlier figure. A "percentage point" (pp) change compares two such rates. For example, 25% falling to 20% is a fall of 5 points.
• Total Fertility Rate (TFR): the average number of children a woman would have in her lifetime at the birth rates of the current year.
• Replacement-level fertility (TFR 2.1): the TFR at which each generation just replaces itself.
• It is 2.1 and not 2.0 because some girls die before they reach child-bearing age.

• If a country stays below 2.1 for a long time, its population will in the end stop growing and then shrink.

• Fertility transition: a society's move from high births and high deaths to low births and low deaths.

• Deaths fall first.
• Births fall later.
• The gap between the two produces fast growth for a while.

2. Regional variation in growth, 1991-2001 (Census 2001)

• In 1991-2001 the southern and coastal states grew by 20% or less. These were Kerala, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Puducherry and Goa.
• Kerala had the lowest growth in India: 9.4%.
• A continuous belt grew 20-25%. It ran from the north-west, through the north, to the north-centre and east. It took in Gujarat, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Madhya Pradesh, Sikkim, Assam, West Bengal, Bihar, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand.

Growth band (1991-2001)	States / UTs	Where they lie
≤ 20% (low)	Kerala (9.4%, lowest), Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Puducherry, Goa	South peninsula and east coast
20-25% (moderate to high)	Gujarat, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, UP, Uttarakhand, MP, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Bihar, West Bengal, Sikkim, Assam	One band from the Thar and the Indus plains, across the Ganga plain, to the Brahmaputra valley

• The pattern on a map:
• The south finished its fertility transition earlier, so it grew slowly.
• The Hindi heartland (the Ganga plain and the central plateau) was still at an earlier stage, so it grew faster.

3. Slowdown in 2001-2011 (Census 2011)

• In 2001-11 the growth rate fell in almost every state and UT compared with 1991-2001.
• Among the six most populous states:
• Andhra Pradesh fell least (3.5 pp).

• Maharashtra fell most (6.7 pp).

• Exceptions: growth rose in Tamil Nadu (+3.9 pp) and Puducherry (+7.1 pp).

• So a falling growth rate became a nationwide trend. The fall still happened at different speeds in different states.

4. The north-south fertility divide

• What it is: the gap between the southern and western states, which have low fertility, and the northern and central states, which have high fertility.
• States below replacement long ago: the southern states, plus West Bengal, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh and Maharashtra.
• States still above 2.1 in NFHS-5 (2019-21): Bihar (3.0), Meghalaya (2.9), Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand and Manipur (2.2) [2].
• NFHS-5 phase 1: 19 of the 22 States/UTs surveyed had reached replacement level. Only Manipur, Meghalaya and Bihar had not [2].
• All of India: 31 of the 36 States/UTs had reached replacement-level fertility [2][3].
• National TFR fell to 2.0 in NFHS-5 (2019-21). This is below the replacement level of 2.1 [2].
• NFHS-6 (2023-24): the national TFR stayed at 2.0, so low fertility is continuing [6].
• The survey was run by the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare. The nodal agency was IIPS (International Institute for Population Sciences), Mumbai.
• It covered about 6.79 lakh households in 715 districts [6].

Why the south fell earlier (causes)

• Female literacy:
• Educated women marry later.
• They also know about and use family planning.
• So they have fewer children.

• Kerala is the classic case.

• Age at marriage:

• Women who marry later have fewer years in which to bear children.

• So the TFR is lower.

• Health systems:

• Better primary health care means fewer babies die.

• Parents then feel safe having fewer children (the "insurance" motive for many births weakens).

• Women's autonomy (women's freedom to decide): women who have more say at home make their own choices about having children and using contraception.

• Urbanisation:
• In cities, raising a child costs more.
• Housing is smaller.
• More women have jobs.
• So families are smaller.

Effects (consequences)

• Labour migration from north to south: young workers move from Bihar, UP, Jharkhand and Odisha to the cities and farms of Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Maharashtra and Gujarat, where the working-age population is shrinking.
• Faster ageing in the south:
• Low fertility lasting many years means a larger share of people aged 60+.

• This raises pension, health and care costs for those states.

• Political debate (see the Polity subject):

• The number of Lok Sabha seats given to each state is frozen on Census 1971 figures until the first census after 2026.

• Southern states fear that new delimitation based on current population would reduce their share of seats. Delimitation means redrawing seats according to population.

• Fiscal debate (see the Economy subject):

• How much weight population gets in Finance Commission formulas for sharing tax revenue between the Centre and states is disputed.
• Southern states argue that a high population weight punishes states that controlled their population.

5. National Population Policy (NPP) 2000

• Immediate aim: meet the unmet need for contraception, health infrastructure and health staff.
• Medium-term aim: bring TFR down to replacement level (2.1) by 2010.
• Long-term aim: a stable population by 2045, at a level that fits economic growth, social development and environmental protection.
• Tools:
• Free contraception, chosen voluntarily.
• Maternal and child health care.

• Community participation through panchayats and women's groups.

• Result: the 2010 target was missed. India reached replacement level only in NFHS-5 (2019-21), with a TFR of 2.0 [2].

6. The mortality side of the transition

Infant Mortality Rate (IMR)

• Definition: the number of babies who die before their first birthday, per 1,000 live births in a year.
• Trend:
• 129 (1971)
• 44 (2011) [4]
• 26 (2022) [4]

• 25 (SRS 2023) [4]

• By sex, SRS 2023: males 26, females 25 [4].

• By state: lowest in Kerala (5). Highest in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh (verify current).
• Under-5 Mortality Rate (U5MR), the number of children who die before age 5 per 1,000 live births:
• 29 in SRS 2023, down from 30 in 2022.
• 33 in rural areas and 20 in urban areas [4].

Maternal Mortality Ratio (MMR)

• Definition: the number of women who die from causes linked to pregnancy or childbirth, per 1,00,000 live births.
• Trend: 130 (2014-16) fell to 93 (2019-21), according to the SRS Special Bulletin [5].
• By state: lowest in Kerala, Maharashtra and Telangana. High in Madhya Pradesh and Assam (verify current).

• In SRS 2016-18: Kerala 43, Madhya Pradesh 173, Assam 215 [7].

• SDG 3 targets for 2030:

• MMR below 70.
• Neonatal mortality rate (NMR) of 12 or less. NMR is the number of babies who die in the first 28 days of life, per 1,000 live births.

Mapping against Section 2 (regional growth)

Indicator	Low-growth south and west (Kerala, TN, Maharashtra)	High-growth north and centre (Bihar, UP, MP, Chhattisgarh, Assam)
Growth, 1991-2001	≤ 20% (Kerala 9.4%)	20-25%
TFR, NFHS-5	Below 2.1	Bihar 3.0, Meghalaya 2.9, UP and Jharkhand above 2.1
IMR	Lowest (Kerala 5, SRS 2023)	Highest (Chhattisgarh, MP, UP)
MMR	Lowest (Kerala, Maharashtra, Telangana)	High (MP, Assam: Assam 215 in 2016-18)

• The pattern: the states that grew slowly are the same states with low IMR and low MMR. This shows that falling deaths and falling births move together across the regions of India.

Prelims Hooks

• Lowest decadal growth, 1991-2001: Kerala (9.4%).
• Six most populous states, 2001-11: the smallest fall in growth rate was in Andhra Pradesh (3.5 pp) and the largest in Maharashtra (6.7 pp).
• Trap: growth rose in 2001-11 in Tamil Nadu (+3.9 pp) and Puducherry (+7.1 pp), against the national trend.
• NFHS-5 (2019-21): national TFR 2.0. Highest state TFR was Bihar (3.0), then Meghalaya (2.9) [2].
• NFHS-5: 31 of 36 States/UTs reached replacement level [2][3].
• NFHS-6: done in 2023-24 by IIPS Mumbai across 715 districts. National TFR stayed at 2.0 [6].
• NPP 2000: replacement TFR by 2010 and a stable population by 2045. Trap: the TFR target was actually met only around 2019-21.
• IMR: 129 (1971) → 44 (2011) → 25 (SRS 2023). U5MR was 29 in 2023 [4].
• MMR: 130 (2014-16) → 93 (2019-21), measured per 1,00,000 live births. Trap: IMR is measured per 1,000 live births [5].
• SDG 2030 targets: MMR below 70 and NMR of 12 or less.

Mains Points

• Uneven demographic transition: there are two speeds.
• The south and west have low growth, below-replacement TFR and low IMR and MMR.
• The Hindi heartland and the North-East (Bihar, UP, Jharkhand, Meghalaya) lag behind.

• The main reasons are differences in female literacy, age at marriage, women's autonomy, the reach of health systems and urbanisation (GS-I).

• Effects on population and economy:

• Workers migrate from north to south.
• The south ages early while the north has a "youth bulge" (a very large share of young people).

• This is a demographic dividend for the north if it creates jobs, and a challenge for southern states that must pay for elderly care (GS-I, GS-III).

• Federal tension:

• The Lok Sabha seat freeze ends with the first census after 2026, and Finance Commission formulas give weight to population.
• Together these raise the question of whether states that controlled their population lose seats and money.

• Answers can propose giving weight to demographic performance as a middle path (GS-II link).

• Policy response:

• NPP 2000 missed its 2010 target. India still reached replacement level by 2019-21 [2], and the TFR held at 2.0 in NFHS-6 [6].
• The remaining task is aimed at specific places: high-TFR districts and the high-MMR and high-IMR states (MP, Assam, UP, Chhattisgarh).
• This is needed to meet the SDG targets for MMR (below 70) and NMR (12 or less).