Demographic transition

Also called: Demographic transition model · Topic: Indian Economy on the Eve of Independence · NCERT: Class 11, Ch 1 "Indian Economy on the Eve of Independence"

Meaning

Demographic transition is the change in a country's population from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates as the country develops. The change happens in distinct stages. It matters because the gap between births and deaths decides how fast the population grows. It also affects food, jobs, health and planning.

Key formula:

• Natural growth rate = Crude Birth Rate (CBR) − Crude Death Rate (CDR)
• Growth in % = (CBR − CDR) ÷ 10

Explanation

The basic measures

• Crude Birth Rate (CBR): the number of live births per 1,000 people in a year.
• Crude Death Rate (CDR): the number of deaths per 1,000 people in a year.
• Natural growth rate: CBR minus CDR. It tells you how many people are added per 1,000 people each year.
• It is called "crude" because it counts the whole population. It does not look at age or sex.

The four stages

Stage	Birth rate	Death rate	Population growth
1	High	High	Low
2	High	Falling	Rapid
3	Falling	Low	Slowing
4	Low	Low	Low or stable

• Stage 1: many births, many deaths
• Families have many children.
• Disease, famine and poor health care kill many people.

• So births and deaths almost cancel out, and the population grows slowly.

• Stage 2: deaths fall first

• Better control of disease and famine brings the death rate down.
• Social habits change slowly, so birth rates stay high.

• The gap between births and deaths gets wider, and the population grows fast.

• Stage 3: births start to fall

• More education, more cities and fewer child deaths lead families to have fewer children.

• Growth is still positive, but it slows down.

• Stage 4: low and steady

• Both rates are low, so the population grows slowly or stays stable.

Worked example (illustrative numbers)

• Stage 1: CBR 48, CDR 45 → growth = 48 − 45 = 3 per 1,000 → 3 ÷ 10 = 0.3% a year.
• Stage 2: CBR 45, CDR 30 → growth = 45 − 30 = 15 per 1,000 → 15 ÷ 10 = 1.5% a year.
• The lesson: the birth rate hardly changed (48 to 45). But the death rate fell a lot (45 to 30), and growth became five times faster. In stage 2, falling deaths drive population growth, not rising births.

What moves a country from one stage to the next

• Death rate falls when: public health improves, safe water is available, water-borne diseases (such as cholera) and air-borne diseases (such as tuberculosis and plague) are controlled, and famines are prevented.
• Birth rate falls when: fewer children die, so families feel they need fewer births. Literacy (especially female literacy), city life and higher incomes also lower the birth rate.

In India

• Stage 1 until 1921: during colonial rule, India had high birth rates and high death rates.
• 1921 as the "year of great divide"
• 1911-21 is the only decade in which India's population fell.
• Why: the 1918 influenza pandemic and famines killed millions.

• After 1921: death rates fell steadily, while birth rates stayed high. India entered stage 2.

• Growth was not yet very high: before Independence, neither the total population nor its growth rate was very high. The population boom came after 1951.

• Why colonial death rates were so high:
• Public health facilities were missing or far too few.
• Water-borne and air-borne diseases spread widely.
• The infant mortality rate (IMR) (babies who die before their first birthday, per 1,000 live births) was about 218. That means about 1 baby in every 5 died.

• Life expectancy (the average number of years a newborn is expected to live) was only 32 years.

• Death rates kept falling after Independence:

• IMR is now 27 per 1,000 (SRS 2021), down from 39 (2014) [3].

• Life expectancy rose from 49.7 (1970-75) to 69.0 (2013-17): men 67.8, women 70.4 [4].

• Who measures it:

• The census is India's main source of population data. Population details were first collected through a census in 1881, the first synchronous census (the whole country counted at the same time). A census has been held every 10 years since then [2].
• Its legal basis is the Census Act, 1948 [2].
• The 2021 Census was postponed because of COVID-19. Census 2027 will be the 16th census, and India's first digital census. Its reference date is 1 March 2027 [2].
• Recent data on infant and child deaths comes from the Sample Registration System (SRS) [3].

Don't confuse with

• Natural growth rate vs total population growth: natural growth counts only births minus deaths (CBR − CDR). Total population growth also counts migration.
• Crude Death Rate (CDR) vs Infant mortality rate (IMR): CDR is deaths per 1,000 people of all ages. IMR is infant deaths per 1,000 live births.
• Stage 1 vs Stage 2: both have high birth rates. What differs is the death rate. Stage 1 has a high death rate and low growth. Stage 2 has a falling death rate and rapid growth.
• 1921 vs 1951: 1921 is the "year of great divide", when India moved from stage 1 to stage 2. 1951 marks the start of the population boom.

Prelims Hooks

• 1921 = "year of great divide". India moved from stage 1 to stage 2 of demographic transition.
• 1911-21 = the only decade in which India's population fell (1918 influenza pandemic and famines).
• Stage 2 = high birth rate + falling death rate = rapid population growth.
• Natural growth rate = CBR − CDR. Example: CBR 45, CDR 30 → 15 per 1,000 = 1.5% a year.
• Trap: stage 1 has high birth rates, but population growth is low, because deaths are also high.
• Colonial IMR about 218 and life expectancy 32 years. Now IMR 27 (SRS 2021) [3] and life expectancy 69.0 (2013-17) [4].

Mains Points

• Health drove India's transition, not a change in births:
• The move into stage 2 after 1921 came from falling deaths, while births stayed high.

• IMR fell from about 218 to 27 [3] and life expectancy rose from 32 to about 69 years [4]. This shows what public health, safe water and disease control can do. Link to SDG 3 in GS-II/GS-III answers.

• Colonial neglect and the population burden:

• The colonial state spent little on health, so India stayed in stage 1 for a long time.

• When growth did pick up after 1951, about 70-75% of workers were still in agriculture. Population growth added more pressure on land and more disguised unemployment (more people working on a farm than it needs). Use this in GS-III answers on employment and structural change.

• Data for planning:

• We can only track the transition with regular, reliable population counts.
• The delayed 2021 Census and the move to a digital Census 2027 [2] raise GS-II questions about welfare targeting, health planning and the timeliness of data.

Read more

• Demographic condition and occupational structure