Demographic condition and occupational structure

Detail

1. The census: how British India counted its people

• Census means a full count of every person in a country at a fixed time, along with details such as age, sex, literacy and work.
• NCERT says population details were "first collected through a census in 1881".
• Trap: 1872 or 1881?
• 1872 (non-synchronous): this count was spread over 1865-1872. Different regions were counted at different times. It was held under Lord Mayo. It is called the "first modern population census" [2].
• 1881 (synchronous): this was the first time the whole country was counted at the same time. That is why it is called the first synchronous census [2].

• In exams, "first census" usually means 1872. "First synchronous census" means 1881.

• Decennial rhythm: a census has been held every 10 years since 1881 [2].

• The 2021 Census was postponed because of the COVID-19 pandemic [2].

• The ancient roots: early ideas of a population count appear in Kautilya's Arthashastra (321-296 BC) and in Abul Fazl's Ain-i-Akbari (Akbar's reign) [2].

• Census 2027: links to today
• It will be the 16th census overall and the 8th since Independence [2].
• It will be India's first census done by digital means. Data will be collected on mobile phones, and people can also choose to count themselves (self-enumeration) [2].
• Reference date ("Census Moment"): 00:00 hours on 1 March 2027. For Ladakh and the snow-bound areas of J&K, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand, it is 1 October 2026 [2].
• Caste enumeration: until 2011, only SCs and STs were counted by caste. Census 2027 will count all castes, after a decision of the Cabinet Committee on Political Affairs on 30 April 2025 [2].

• The legal basis is the Census Act, 1948 and the Census Rules [2].

• Even with its limits, the 1881 census showed that population growth was uneven across regions and decades.

2. Demographic transition

• Demographic transition is the change from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates as a country develops.
• Key formula:
• Natural growth rate = Crude Birth Rate (CBR) − Crude Death Rate (CDR)
• CBR means live births per 1,000 people in a year. CDR means deaths per 1,000 people in a year.

• Growth in % = (CBR − CDR) ÷ 10.

• The four stages:

Stage	Birth rate	Death rate	Population growth
1	High	High	Low
2	High	Falling	Rapid
3	Falling	Low	Slowing
4	Low	Low	Low or stable

• Worked example (illustrative numbers):
• Stage 1: CBR 48, CDR 45 → growth = 3 per 1,000 = 0.3% a year. Many births, but many deaths too.

• Stage 2: CBR 45, CDR 30 → growth = 15 per 1,000 = 1.5% a year. Births stay high, deaths fall, so the population grows fast.

• Where India stood:

• Before 1921: India was in stage one.

• After 1921: India entered stage two.

• 1921 as the "year of great divide"

• 1911-21 is the only decade in which India's population fell.
• Why: the 1918 influenza pandemic and famines killed millions.

• After 1921: death rates fell steadily, while birth rates stayed high. So growth picked up.

• At this stage, neither the total population nor its growth rate was very high. The population boom came after 1951.

3. Social indicators: how poor was life?

• Definitions:
• Literacy rate: the share of people who can read and write with understanding.
• Infant mortality rate (IMR): the number of babies who die before their first birthday, per 1,000 live births.
  • Formula: IMR = (infant deaths in a year ÷ live births in that year) × 1,000.
  • Example: 2,180 infant deaths among 10,000 live births → IMR = 218. This means about 1 baby in every 5 died.
• Life expectancy (at birth): the average number of years a newborn is expected to live if today's death rates stay the same.

Indicator	Colonial period	Present
Overall literacy	Less than 16%	—
Female literacy	About 7%	—
Infant mortality rate (IMR)	About 218 per 1,000	27 per 1,000 (SRS 2021) [5] (NCERT: 28)
Life expectancy	32 years	69.0 years (SRS 2013-17): men 67.8, women 70.4 [6] (NCERT: 70; verify the latest SRS life table)

• Other recent child and mother health data (for contrast with the colonial period):
• IMR fell from 39 (2014) to 27 (2021) [5].
• Neonatal mortality rate (NMR) (deaths of babies in their first 28 days, per 1,000 live births) fell from 26 (2014) to 19 (2021) [5].
• Under-5 mortality rate (U5MR) was 29 per 1,000 (SRS Statistical Report 2023), down from 30 (2022) [5].
• Maternal mortality ratio (MMR) (mothers who die from pregnancy-related causes, per 1 lakh live births) fell from 130 (2014-16) to 93 (2019-21) [5].

• Life expectancy rose from 49.7 (1970-75) to 69.0 (2013-17) [6].

• Why the colonial numbers were so bad:

• Public health facilities were either missing or far too few.
• Water-borne diseases (such as cholera) and air-borne diseases (such as tuberculosis and plague) spread widely.
• The overall mortality rate (death rate) was very high.
• Poverty was extensive, but there was no reliable data to measure it.

4. Occupational structure

• Occupational structure means how workers are spread across the three sectors of the economy:
• Primary sector: agriculture and allied activities.
• Secondary sector: manufacturing (and industry).

• Tertiary sector: services.

• Colonial pattern (it barely changed):

Sector	Share of workforce (colonial period)	Recent figure
Agriculture	70-75%	43.0% (2025), down from 44.8% (2024) [3]
Manufacturing	About 10%	12.1% (2025), up from 11.6% (2024) [3]
Services	15-20%	Trade, transport, "other services" and so on. "Other services" alone rose from 12.2% to 13.1% (2024 → 2025) [3]

• Note on today's data: the recent figures come from the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) of the NSO, MoSPI, and are measured in usual status [3].
• Construction was 12.0% (2025), down from 12.3% (2024) [3].

• PLFS was launched in April 2017 [4]. From January 2025, the annual report follows the calendar year instead of the July-June agricultural year [3].

• Worked example: share of workforce

• Suppose 100 lakh workers: 72 lakh in farming, 10 lakh in factories, 18 lakh in services.

• Agriculture share = 72 ÷ 100 × 100 = 72%. This is the typical colonial picture.

• Why it barely changed:

• Deindustrialisation, the decline of Indian handicrafts under British rule, pushed artisans back onto the land.
• Modern industry grew too slowly to absorb workers.

• The result was more pressure on land and disguised unemployment (more people working on a farm than are actually needed, so removing some would not reduce output).

• Growing regional variation:

• Falling dependence on agriculture (more workers in manufacturing and services):
  • parts of Madras Presidency (present-day Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Kerala and Karnataka)
  • Bombay
  • Bengal
• Rising dependence on agriculture:
  • Orissa
  • Rajasthan
  • Punjab
• These were the port-and-trade regions against the inland farming regions. The pattern hints at why regional inequality appeared early.

5. Partition's economic cost

• NCERT asks students to think about this using Rajendra Prasad's India Divided (1946).
• Jute:
• Jute-growing East Bengal went to Pakistan (East Pakistan).
• The jute mills stayed in and around Calcutta in India.

• So the mills lost their raw material.

• Cotton and wheat:

• West Punjab and Sindh, with their irrigated canal colonies of wheat and cotton, went to Pakistan.

• The cotton mills stayed in India.

• Net effect:

• India lost its sources of raw material and its food-surplus areas.
• India kept a large share of the population.
• This worsened the food problem after 1947, which led to food imports (and later shaped the push for the Green Revolution).

Prelims Hooks

• 1872 = first census, non-synchronous (spread over 1865-72, under Lord Mayo). 1881 = first synchronous census [2].
• 1921 = "year of great divide". India moved from stage 1 to stage 2 of demographic transition.
• 1911-21 is the only decade with a fall in India's population (1918 influenza pandemic and famines).
• Stage 2 of demographic transition = high birth rate + falling death rate = rapid growth.
• IMR formula: infant deaths ÷ live births × 1,000. Colonial IMR about 218. Now 27 (SRS 2021) [5].
• Colonial life expectancy 32 years. Colonial literacy below 16%, female literacy about 7%.
• Colonial workforce: agriculture 70-75%, manufacturing about 10%, services 15-20%. PLFS 2025: agriculture 43.0% [3].
• Trap: Punjab, Orissa and Rajasthan saw rising dependence on agriculture. Madras, Bombay and Bengal saw it falling.
• Census 2027 = 16th census, 8th since Independence, first digital census, reference date 1 March 2027 [2].
• Legal basis of the census: Census Act, 1948 [2].

Mains Points

• A colonial "stuck" economy:
• The share of agriculture stayed at 70-75% for decades. This shows that colonial rule brought no structural transformation (the shift of workers from farming to industry and services).

• Even in 2025, agriculture's share is 43.0% [3]. That shows how slowly the colonial legacy of too many workers on too little land is being undone. Use this in GS-III answers on employment and agriculture.

• Health as a development indicator:

• IMR fell from about 218 to 27 [5] and life expectancy rose from 32 to about 69 years [6]. This shows what public health spending, safe water and disease control can do.

• It also links to SDG 3 targets on child and maternal mortality.

• Partition as an economic shock:

• Raw-material zones (jute, cotton) and food-surplus areas were separated from the mills and cities.

• This caused shortages of inputs and food after 1947. It explains the early planners' focus on food security, irrigation and import substitution.

• Data for governance:

• The unbroken census since 1872 is India's main source of population data.
• The delay in the 2021 Census and the shift to a digital, caste-counting Census 2027 [2] raise GS-II questions about data-driven welfare targeting, delimitation and privacy.