Many twists in the monsoon’s tale

1. At a Glance

• Andhra Pradesh (AP) had both drought and floods in a single 2026 monsoon season. In June–July, early-monsoon drought was declared in 388 of 688 mandals across 28 districts. By late October, extremely heavy rain had hit many of those same mandals, though not the ones in Rayalaseema [1].
• Two cyclones hit back to back, 28 Oct–3 Nov 2026: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm (VSCS) 'Arnab' and Severe Cyclonic Storm (SCS) 'Murasu'. Estimated damage is about ₹6,500 crore, with at least 17 dead [1].
• Why it matters for UPSC: the topic touches monsoon variability (GS-I), IMD's cyclone classification (Prelims), disaster management (GS-III) and farm distress in the Godavari delta (GS-III Agriculture).

2. Why in the News

• IMD issued Tropical Cyclone Advisory No. 07, based on 1800 UTC of 26 Oct 2026, describing 'Arnab' as a VSCS over the Bay of Bengal [3].
• Arnab and Murasu struck coastal AP between 28 Oct and 3 Nov 2026. Peak winds were about 140 kmph (Arnab) and 110 kmph (Murasu) [1].
• The Hindu covered it on 8 Nov 2026 ("Many twists in the monsoon's tale", Chennai edition, p. 27). Farmers in the Godavari belt face at least two years of recovery [1].

3. Background & Evolution

• June–July 2026: a weak start to the southwest monsoon led AP to declare drought in 388/688 mandals in 28 districts [1].
• By end-October 2026: extremely heavy rainfall battered many of the drought-declared mandals, except those in Rayalaseema [1].
• 26 Oct 2026: IMD advisory classifies Arnab as a VSCS over the Bay of Bengal [3].
• 28 Oct–3 Nov 2026: Arnab, then Murasu, hit the coastal districts [1].
• Related idea: the October–December post-monsoon season brings the northeast monsoon to the region and is the main Bay of Bengal cyclone season for the east coast. This is general conceptual context, not taken from a source.
• IMD classification has changed across editions: older IMD SOPs show different VSCS upper limits (e.g., 64–119 kt) than the current terminology (64–89 kt) [2][4].

4. Core Static Facts

IMD classification of cyclonic disturbances over the North Indian Ocean (current terminology) [2]

The kmph figures for CS, SCS and ESCS are converted from the knot values. The VSCS and SuCS kmph figures are as IMD states them [2].

• Arnab: about 140 kmph, which falls in the VSCS band (118–167 kmph) [1][2].
• Murasu: about 110 kmph, which falls in the SCS band (48–63 kt) [1][2].
• Terminology: over the North Indian Ocean these storms are called "Cyclones". The same systems are "hurricanes" in the Atlantic and "typhoons" in the NW Pacific [5].
• Issuing body: IMD's Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre (RSMC), New Delhi, which publishes the NIO terminology and FAQ [2][5]. IMD sits under the Ministry of Earth Sciences.

Impact figures (AP, 2026) [1]

5. Multi-Dimensional Analysis

Economic

• About ₹6,500 crore of damage on top of losses from the earlier drought means a double fiscal shock for the State: it pays for drought relief and then cyclone relief in the same year [1].
• Coconut is a perennial crop, so losses last for years. Uprooted trees take years to replant and bear again, which explains the "two years of recovery" estimate [1].
• Paddy, cotton and chilli were flattened in the Godavari delta and Guntur–Palnadu belt, which hurts AP's farm output and its chilli exports [1].

Social

• Small and tenant farmers in the delta carry most of the loss. Coastal fishing villages such as Uppada faced coastal erosion and wave damage [1].
• The Rayalaseema region was left out of the later rains. This keeps up a long-standing regional gap in rainfall and water security [1].

Environmental / Climatic

• Drought turning into deluge within one season shows intra-seasonal monsoon variability. It also illustrates the global trend of compound or consecutive extremes; this is conceptual context.
• Two cyclones in about a week points to a very active post-monsoon Bay of Bengal [1][3].
• The heavy rain fell on soils hardened by drought, which increases runoff and flooding. This is a conceptual point.

Administrative / Disaster Management

• Early warning: IMD advisories were issued before landfall [3]. This shows how far cyclone forecasting has come: deaths (17) were low compared with the economic damage [1].
• The weak link is infrastructure resilience: power poles and coastal roads were destroyed [1]. This argues for underground cabling and protection of the coastline.
• Governance issue: AP made separate drought and flood/cyclone declarations in the same year. Relief norms and insurance claims need to be integrated across both hazards.

Scientific / Technological

• IMD's wind-speed thresholds decide the category, and the category decides the warning colour code and how much evacuation is triggered [2][4].

6. Recent Developments (last 12–18 months)

• Jun–Jul 2026: AP declares drought in 388 of 688 mandals [1].
• Late Oct 2026: extremely heavy rainfall across coastal and central AP [1].
• 26 Oct 2026 (1800 UTC): IMD Advisory No. 07 calls Arnab a VSCS over the Bay of Bengal [3].
• 28 Oct–3 Nov 2026: landfall and impact of VSCS Arnab (~140 kmph) and SCS Murasu (~110 kmph). At least 17 dead, ~₹6,500 crore in damage [1].
• 8 Nov 2026: the press reports Godavari-belt farmers facing a 2-year recovery [1].

7. Prelims Hooks

• VSCS = maximum sustained winds of 64–89 knots (118–167 kmph) under current IMD terminology [2].
• SCS = 48–63 knots [2].
• ESCS = 90–119 knots [2].
• Super Cyclonic Storm = ≥120 knots (≥222 kmph) [2].
• Cyclonic Storm = 34–47 knots [2].
• The North Indian Ocean regional bulletins are issued by RSMC New Delhi (IMD) [2][5].
• Cyclone Arnab (2026) was classified as a VSCS over the Bay of Bengal [3].
• Cyclone Murasu (2026) was a Severe Cyclonic Storm with winds of about 110 kmph [1].
• In 2026, AP declared drought in 388 of its 688 mandals [1].
• Dr. B.R. Ambedkar Konaseema district lies in the Godavari delta and was among the districts with crop damage [1].
• Uppada, a coastal village hit by wave damage, is in Kakinada district [1].
• Rayalaseema was the region of AP that missed the late-October extreme rainfall [1].

8. Why Few Deaths Did Not Mean Small Losses

• Warnings save lives, but they cannot save fields, trees or poles
• IMD warned about Arnab before landfall. Only 17 people died, but the damage was about ₹6,500 crore [1][3].
• People can be moved to shelters. Standing paddy, coconut trees and power poles cannot be moved.

• So better forecasting brings deaths down, but economic loss stays high. Mains questions on cyclones often turn on this gap.

• Disaster relief pays a fixed rate per hectare, not the value of what was lost

• Under SDRF (State Disaster Response Fund, the money a State keeps for disaster relief), crop relief is an input subsidy. This is a fixed sum per hectare, paid only when the loss crosses a minimum level [8].
• A review prepared for the 16th Finance Commission says the SDRF norms limit how the fund can be used. Compensation for economic losses is not covered [6].

• A Konaseema farmer whose coconut trees were uprooted loses years of income. The relief rate is built for one season's crop, not a tree that took years to grow (conceptual).

• One disaster year leaves the State weaker for the next one

• AP spent on drought relief in June–July. Then it had to pay for cyclone relief in the same year [1].
• Each disaster is declared and costed on its own. Nothing in the system accounts for the same mandal being hit twice in one season (conceptual).

9. Why Relief Money Reaches Farmers Late

• Andhra Pradesh has a record of slow payouts
• A CAG (Comptroller and Auditor General, India's top government auditor) report on AP found that the State Disaster Management Authority released relief funds 3 months to 1 year after the disaster [7].

• For a delta farmer, the next sowing season comes before that. Without the money, the farmer borrows from moneylenders to replant.

• Damage on paper does not always match damage on the ground

• CAG audits in other States found crop-loss subsidy paid on more land than the officially assessed damaged area. In other cases, payments went to areas below the loss threshold [8].
• The weak point is the field survey that comes after a disaster. If the survey is slow or careless, relief goes to the wrong people or arrives late.
• After two cyclones in one week, officials have to assess the same villages twice, often while roads are still broken [1].

10. Where Crop Insurance Helps and Where It Falls Short

• PMFBY does cover cyclone damage, even after harvest
• PMFBY (Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana, the Centre's crop insurance scheme) covers crops left in the field to dry ("cut-and-spread") for up to 14 days after harvest, against cyclone and unseasonal rain [11].
• Localised calamities like inundation (fields under water) are assessed for each individual farm plot, not the whole area [11].

• This suits late-October cyclones, which arrive when the kharif paddy is being harvested.

• The 72-hour rule is hard to follow in a cyclone

• For localised losses, the farmer must inform the insurance company within 72 hours. The Ministry says this is because signs of damage fade after that [12].

• But in a cyclone week the power is cut, roads are blocked and phones may not work [1]. The farmers hit hardest are the ones least able to report on time.

• States leave the scheme when money is short

• The Agriculture Ministry says States opted out of PMFBY mainly because they could not pay their share of the premium subsidy. AP rejoined only from July 2022 [12].
• A State that pays for a drought and two cyclones in one year faces the same squeeze. Insurance is weakest exactly when it is needed most.

11. Is Climate Change to Blame? What the Evidence Actually Says

• The strongest objection: storms are not becoming more frequent
• A study in Nature finds the number of Bay of Bengal cyclones has not risen significantly, even though the North Indian Ocean has warmed [9].

• So two cyclones in one week in 2026 cannot, on its own, be called proof of climate change. One season is weather, not a trend.

• What the objection gets right

• Attribution (scientifically linking one event to climate change) needs long records. Answers that say "climate change caused Arnab" overclaim.

• What the objection misses: storms may strengthen faster

• Under a high-emission scenario, rapid intensification (a storm gaining strength very quickly, within a day or so) is projected to become about 39% more common in the Bay of Bengal by the end of this century [10].
• The same Nature study that found no rise in storm numbers still expects stronger storms as the planet warms [9].

• The danger is less warning time. A storm can be forecast as an SCS and reach VSCS strength before evacuation is finished.

• How to write it in Mains

• Say that frequency is not clearly rising, while intensity and speed of intensification are the real concern. Examiners reward this balance.

12. What Should Change Before the Next Twin Disaster

• MHA and the 16th Finance Commission should widen SDRF norms
• The Finance Commission's own review says SDRF does not cover economic losses [6].

• Separate restoration help for perennial crops like coconut would match the real loss. Today's per-hectare input subsidy does not [8].

• The AP government should set deadlines for paying relief

• CAG found delays of up to one year in AP [7]. A fixed deadline from the date of the disaster, published mandal by mandal, would make delay visible.

• The Agriculture Ministry should relax the 72-hour window for district-wide disasters

• The rule exists so damage can be checked before evidence fades [12].

• When IMD has already tracked a VSCS over a district [3], the event is on record. Insurers could then use satellite or area surveys instead of waiting for each farmer to report.

• AP should budget its PMFBY premium share as fixed spending

• States left the scheme when they could not pay the premium share [12].

• If the premium is protected in the budget, a drought year cannot push the State out of insurance just before the cyclone season (conceptual).

• IMD and the State should plan for rapid intensification

• With faster-strengthening storms projected [10], evacuation should be triggered by the storm's expected strength, not only its present category [2][4].

13. Anchors for Answers

• Data: ~₹6,500 crore damage but only 17 deaths from Arnab and Murasu: low deaths, high economic loss [1]
• Data: Rapid intensification in the Bay of Bengal projected to be ~39% more common by late century under high emissions [10]
• Report/Committee: CAG Revenue Audit Report on Andhra Pradesh (Report No. 1 of 2013): SDMA relief released 3 months to 1 year late [7]
• Report/Committee: World Bank review of Disaster Risk Management Financing in India, prepared for the 16th Finance Commission: SDRF norms do not cover economic losses [6]
• Law/Case: Disaster Management Act, 2005, the legal basis for SDRF/NDRF and relief norms
• Scheme: PMFBY covers post-harvest "cut-and-spread" crops for 14 days against cyclone and unseasonal rain; farm-plot-level assessment for localised calamities [11]
• Scheme: States quit PMFBY when they cannot pay the premium share; AP rejoined from July 2022 [12]

14. Mains Relevance

• GS-I: Physical geography, covering the Indian monsoon, its variability, and tropical cyclones.
• GS-III: Disaster and disaster management; agriculture (crop loss, insurance, farmer distress); infrastructure resilience.
• Possible question stems: 1. Drought and deluge in the same season are becoming a feature of the Indian monsoon. Examine the causes and suggest an integrated risk-management framework for states like Andhra Pradesh. (15 marks) 2. India has reduced cyclone mortality considerably, yet economic losses keep rising. Critically analyse, with reference to recent cyclones on the east coast. (10 marks) 3. Discuss the vulnerability of perennial horticulture in coastal deltas to cyclones and suggest adaptation measures. (10 marks)

15. Related Topics to Study Next

• Formation of tropical cyclones and the Bay of Bengal vs Arabian Sea comparison: explains why the east coast gets more frequent and stronger landfalls.
• Northeast (retreating) monsoon: the Oct–Dec rain regime of coastal AP and Tamil Nadu.
• IMD Impact-Based Forecasting and the colour-coded warning system: links cyclone category to action on the ground.
• WMO/ESCAP Panel on Tropical Cyclones and naming of NIO cyclones: explains where names like Arnab and Murasu come from.
• Manual for Drought Management and drought declaration criteria: the basis for mandal-level drought declaration.
• SDRF/NDRF norms and the Disaster Management Act, 2005: the framework for relief funding after the cyclones.
• PMFBY (crop insurance): settling claims for losses from more than one hazard.
• Coastal erosion and shoreline management: the Uppada-type wave damage.

16. NCERT Concepts to Revise

• IMD classification of cyclonic disturbances (Geography): Arnab (VSCS) and Murasu (SCS) are told apart by wind-speed bands, a favourite Prelims topic.
• Southwest monsoon (Geography): A weak June–July monsoon start caused the drought declaration; its variability is the article's core theme.
• Northeast monsoon (Geography): Oct–Dec rain regime and cyclone season on the Bay of Bengal explain the late-October deluge.
• Manual for Drought Management (Geography): Explains how states like Andhra Pradesh declare drought mandal by mandal using rainfall and impact indicators.
• WMO/ESCAP Panel on Tropical Cyclones (Geography): Explains how North Indian Ocean cyclones get names such as Arnab and Murasu.
• Crop insurance (Economy): Paddy, cotton, chilli and coconut losses from drought and cyclones raise the question of insurance claims.

17. Common Errors / Trap Areas

• Mixing up VSCS bands across IMD editions. Older SOPs show 64–119 kt or 64–90 kt; the current terminology is 64–89 kt, with ESCS at 90–119 kt [2][4].
• Confusing knots with kmph. The SuCS threshold is 120 kt ≈ 222 kmph, not 120 kmph [2].
• Misclassifying Murasu. At about 110 kmph it is an SCS, not a VSCS. The VSCS band starts at 118 kmph [1][2].
• Assuming the whole State was flooded. Rayalaseema stayed outside the extreme-rainfall zone [1].
• Getting the ministry wrong. IMD is under the Ministry of Earth Sciences, not the MoEFCC or the MHA. The NDMA (under the MHA) handles disaster management policy, not forecasting.