Drought and deluge in the same season are becoming a feature of the Indian monsoon. Examine the causes and suggest an integrated risk-management framework for states like Andhra Pradesh.

Andhra Pradesh declared drought in 388 of 688 mandals in June–July 2026. By late October, extreme rain and two back-to-back cyclones, Arnab and Murasu, had caused about ₹6,500 crore of damage, much of it in the same mandals [1]. Seasons like this mean drought and flood must be managed as one continuous risk.

Causes

• Intra-seasonal variability: the southwest monsoon started weak with long dry spells, then came intense bursts of rain [1].
• Active Bay of Bengal: October–December is the east coast's main cyclone season. Arnab became a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm (64–89 kt) [2][3], and Murasu followed within a week [1].
• Warming seas feed heavier rain and storms that strengthen faster, even though cyclone numbers are not clearly rising.
• Geography: Rayalaseema, a rain-shadow region, missed the late rains, so drought and flood existed side by side within one State [1].
• Soil feedback: soils hardened by drought increase runoff, so heavy rain turns into floods.

Integrated risk-management framework

Forecast → Multi-hazard declaration → Time-bound relief → Insurance → Resilient rebuild

Fig: One risk cycle replacing separate drought and flood silos

• Early warning: IMD issued advisories before landfall [3], which helped hold deaths to about 17 [1]. Impact-based alerts should cover drought too.
• Unified declaration under the Disaster Management Act, 2005: one mandal-level multi-hazard register, so a mandal hit twice is assessed once, for both hazards.
• Wider SDRF norms: the norms do not cover economic losses [4]. Restoration aid should be added for perennial crops like coconut.
• Time-bound relief: CAG found Andhra Pradesh released relief funds 3 months to a year late [5]. Mandal-wise payment deadlines would make delays visible.
• Insurance: PMFBY covers post-harvest "cut-and-spread" crops against cyclones [6]. Two fixes are needed:
• relax the 72-hour loss-reporting rule during declared disasters;

• protect the State's premium share in the budget, since States that could not pay it have left the scheme [7].

• Resilience: underground power cabling, shoreline protection, and diverting floodwater into Rayalaseema's tanks.

A variable monsoon, an active Bay of Bengal and a fragile landscape together produce drought and deluge in one season. Andhra Pradesh has shown that warnings save lives. Linking forecasts, relief, insurance and resilient infrastructure into one cycle can protect livelihoods too, advancing SDG 13 and the Sendai Framework target of reducing economic losses from disasters.