India has reduced cyclone mortality considerably, yet economic losses keep rising. Critically analyse, with reference to recent cyclones on the east coast.

In late October 2026, two cyclones hit coastal Andhra Pradesh back to back: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm (VSCS) 'Arnab' and Severe Cyclonic Storm (SCS) 'Murasu'. They killed at least 17 people but caused about ₹6,500 crore of damage [1]. India now saves lives well, but it still cannot protect livelihoods and assets.

Why mortality has fallen

• Early warning: IMD's RSMC New Delhi issued a "Red Message" for Andhra Pradesh on 26 October, two days before Arnab's expected landfall. It forecast winds of 115–125 kmph gusting to 140 kmph [2].
• Category-based response: IMD's wind-speed bands decide warning levels. A VSCS has winds of 64–89 knots [3].
• Institutions: the Disaster Management Act, 2005 set up the NDMA, SDMAs and DDMAs, each with its own disaster plan [4].

Why economic losses keep rising

• Assets that cannot be moved: paddy, cotton and chilli were flattened in the Godavari delta and the Guntur–Palnadu belt. Thousands of coconut trees were uprooted, and farmers expect at least two years of recovery [1].
• Weak infrastructure: hundreds of electricity poles came down, and coastal roads were damaged at places such as Uppada in Kakinada district [1].
• Back-to-back disasters: earlier the same year, the State had declared drought in 388 of 688 mandals. It had to pay for drought relief and then cyclone relief in one year [1].

Critical assessment

• Relief is not built to cover losses: SDRF norms do not compensate economic losses [5]. The CAG found that early-warning shore stations in East Godavari were not working, cyclone shelters were poorly kept, and SDRF funds in AP were used late [4].
• Gaps in crop insurance: PMFBY covers post-harvest cyclone damage, and it assesses localised losses for each individual plot [6]. However, farmers must report losses within 72 hours, which is hard during a cyclone. Some States also left the scheme because they could not pay their premium share. AP rejoined only in July 2022 [7].
• A fair caveat: some of the rise in losses comes from more assets being built on the coast. Higher totals therefore do not mean preparedness has failed.

Falling deaths reflect better forecasting and evacuation, while rising losses show that India has not yet built economic resilience. The way forward is to widen SDRF norms to pay for restoring perennial crops like coconut, lay power cables underground, use satellite surveys to settle insurance claims after large disasters, and protect the State's premium share in the budget. This would also meet the Sendai Framework's goal of reducing economic losses, not just deaths.