UPSC Prelims 2024 Q67: Low Birth Rate & Ageing Countries — Explained
Consider the following countries:
1. Italy
2. Japan
3. Nigeria
4. South Korea
5. South Africa
Which of the above countries are frequently mentioned in the media for their low birth rates, or ageing population or declining population?
- 1, 2 and 4
- 1, 3 and 5
- 2 and 4 only
- 3 and 5 only
Answer: (a) 1, 2 and 4
Statement-wise explanation
- 1: correct — Italy's total fertility rate (TFR) was 1.21 in 2023 (World Bank), far below the replacement level of about 2.1. About 24.2% of Italians were aged 65 or older in 2023. Italy's population peaked at about 60.3 million in 2014 and has fallen every year since, to about 59.0 million in 2023.
- 2: correct — Japan's TFR fell to 1.20 in 2023 (World Bank), a record low. About 29.6% of its people were 65 or older in 2023, the highest share of the five countries listed and one of the highest in the world. Its population peaked at about 128.1 million in 2010 and has shrunk every year since, to about 124.5 million in 2023.
- 3: incorrect — Nigeria is the opposite case. Its TFR was about 4.5 in 2023 (World Bank), more than double the replacement level. Only about 3% of its people are 65 or older. It is Africa's most populous country, with about 237.5 million people in 2025 (UNFPA), and its population is still growing fast. It makes news for rapid growth, not decline.
- 4: correct — South Korea had the world's lowest TFR in 2023, at 0.72 children per woman (OECD; World Bank 0.721). Its population peaked in 2020 and fell in 2021 and 2022. It is ageing fast too: the share of people aged 65 and over rose from 17.5% to 18.3% between 2022 and 2023 alone.
- 5: incorrect — South Africa's TFR was about 2.2 in 2023 (World Bank), still around the replacement level. Only about 6.5% of its people were 65 or older. Its population is still growing (about 64.8 million in 2025, UNFPA), so the media does not mention it for low births or decline.
How to eliminate
Basic knowledge of world population is enough to eliminate Nigeria. It is Africa's most populous country and has one of the world's highest fertility rates. Dropping statement 3 rules out the options with 1, 3 and 5 and with 3 and 5 only. That leaves two options: 1, 2 and 4, or 2 and 4 only. Both include Japan and South Korea, so the whole question turns on Italy. The fact to remember is that Italy, like most of Southern Europe, has a TFR of about 1.2, one of the oldest populations in Europe, and a population falling since 2014. A quicker rule of thumb: the 'low fertility, ageing, shrinking' countries in the news are rich East Asian and Southern/Eastern European countries, not Sub-Saharan African ones. South Africa sits in between at about 2.2, but its population is young and still growing.
Know more
Demographic transition and its last stage
As countries grow richer, they move from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates. In the final stage, fertility falls below replacement level (TFR ≈ 2.1). Each generation of parents then has fewer children than is needed to replace itself. If this lasts for decades, two things follow:
- Population ageing: the share of people aged 65+ rises, and the old-age dependency ratio worsens. Fewer workers support more pensioners.
- Population decline: deaths exceed births (natural decrease). Unless immigration fills the gap, the total population shrinks.
| Country | TFR (2023) | Share aged 65+ (2023) | Population trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| South Korea | 0.72 (world's lowest) | 18.3% | Peaked 2020 |
| Japan | 1.20 | 29.6% | Falling since 2010 |
| Italy | 1.21 | 24.2% | Falling since 2014 |
| South Africa | 2.22 | 6.5% | Growing |
| Nigeria | 4.48 | 3.0% | Growing fast |
Source: World Bank data.
Why fertility collapses in rich countries: high housing and education costs, late marriage, long working hours, and the difficulty of combining a career with motherhood. The OECD names South Korea's gender gaps in jobs and pay as a key cause there.
India's position: India's TFR fell to 2.0 in NFHS-5 (2019–21), below replacement level. Most states are now at or below 2.1. India's population is still growing, though, because so many people are of reproductive age (population momentum). Southern states such as Kerala and Tamil Nadu are already ageing quickly.
Exam angle: UPSC can test the indicators themselves (TFR, crude birth rate, dependency ratio) or ask which countries are at which stage. Keep a mental list: East Asia (Japan, South Korea, China, Taiwan) and Southern/Eastern Europe (Italy, Spain, Greece) are the low-fertility group. Sub-Saharan Africa (Nigeria, Niger, DR Congo) is the high-fertility group.
In the news
In early 2024, before the Prelims, the media widely reported record-low fertility figures for 2023: South Korea's TFR fell to 0.72, the world's lowest, and Japan's fell to about 1.2. Italy's long-running 'demographic winter' and falling population were also in the news. The question asks directly which countries are 'frequently mentioned in the media'.
NCERT Concepts to Revise
- Total fertility rate: TFR is the single figure that separates the five countries listed, ranging from below 1 to above 4.
- Replacement-level fertility: The question's 'low birth rate' idea is measured against the replacement TFR of about 2.1.
- Population ageing: One of the three conditions in the question is an 'ageing population', which this term defines.
- Demographic transition: The listed countries sit at different stages of demographic transition, which explains the pattern behind the answer.
- Dependency ratio: Ageing and population decline raise the old-age dependency ratio, the main economic worry behind the media coverage.