India as the most populous country

Topic: Population of India: Distribution, Density, Growth and Composition · NCERT: Beyond NCERT

Meaning

India as the most populous country means that India now has more people than any other country in the world. The UN projected that India's population would reach 1,425,775,850 in April 2023, equal mainland China's, and then pass it [3].

• This ends China's long run as the world's most populous country. In the Census 2011 era, India was second.
• It matters because a very large population puts pressure on land, water, forests, food, jobs and services. The same people can also be a resource for growth.

Explanation

How India moved to first place

• Census 2011 starting point:
• India counted 1,210 million people (about 121 crore).

• It ranked second, after China.

• India kept growing:

• India's population reached over 1.42 billion in 2023.

• The UN projected that it would equal and then pass mainland China's in April 2023 [3].

• China began to shrink:

• China's population began to fall in 2022.

• The reason was simple: it had fewer births than deaths.

• Result: India's number kept rising while China's number fell. So India became 1st and China became 2nd [3].

What comes next: growth, then a peak

• Peak: UN World Population Prospects (WPP) 2024 expects India's population to peak around 2064, at about 1.7 billion. After that it should fall slowly [4].

• WPP (World Population Prospects): the UN Population Division's official estimates and projections for every country. It is revised every two years.

• Why India still grows when fertility is low:

• NFHS-5 (2019-21) put India's TFR (Total Fertility Rate: the average number of children a woman would have in her lifetime) at 2.0.
• This is below the replacement level of 2.1 (the number of children per woman needed to keep population size stable in the long run).
• NFHS-6 (2023-24) found that the TFR stayed at 2.0 [5].
• Even so, the population keeps growing because many young people are still entering child-bearing age. This is called population momentum.

How the figure is known

• India's last census was in 2011. Census 2021 was postponed because of COVID-19 [1].
• So the "most populous" status comes from UN projections [3][4], not from a new Indian census count.
• Census 2027 will be the 16th census overall and the 8th since Independence [1]. It will be the first Indian census taken after India became the most populous country.
• An old target has already been passed. NCERT projected "1,350 million by 2025", but India crossed this figure before 2023.

Point	India	China
Rank, Census 2011 era	2nd	1st
Rank from April 2023 (UN)	1st [3]	2nd
Trend	Still growing; peak about 2064 [4]	Falling since 2022

Where it occurs

• India: It became the world's most populous country in April 2023, with 1,425,775,850 people projected by the UN [3].
• China (mainland): It is now second. Its population has been falling since 2022.
• Scale in the world: Even in 2011, India had more people than North America, South America and Australia put together.
• World context (WPP 2024): The world had 8.2 billion people in 2024. World population is projected to peak at about 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s [4].
• Who measures it:
• UN DESA (Population Division): publishes the projections through WPP [3][4].
• Registrar General and Census Commissioner of India, Ministry of Home Affairs: runs the Indian Census. The next population reference date is 00:00 hours, 1 March 2027 [1][2].

Don't confuse with

• UN projection vs Census count: India's first place comes from a UN projection (April 2023) [3]. India's last official census count is still 1,210 million (2011).
• Most populous vs population peak: India became first in 2023, but it will reach its peak only around 2064, at about 1.7 billion [4]. Being first does not mean India has stopped growing.
• Below-replacement TFR vs falling population: India's TFR is 2.0, below 2.1, but its population is still rising because of population momentum. China's population is actually falling because it has fewer births than deaths.
• Most populous vs most densely populated: "Most populous" is about the total number of people. Density means people per sq km, which is a different measure.

Prelims Hooks

• The UN said India would pass mainland China in April 2023, with a population of 1,425,775,850 [3].
• China's population began to fall in 2022 because there were fewer births than deaths.
• WPP 2024: India peaks at about 1.7 billion around 2064. The world peaks at about 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s, up from 8.2 billion in 2024 [4].
• Census 2011: India had 1,210 million people and ranked 2nd, after China.
• Trap: NCERT's projection of "1,350 million by 2025" was already passed before 2023.
• Trap: India's first place is based on UN estimates, not on Census data. The next count is Census 2027, with a reference date of 1 March 2027 [1][2].

Mains Points

• Demographic turning point: India is the most populous country, but its TFR (2.0) is already below replacement level.
• The population will keep growing until about 2064 because of population momentum [4].
• India must use its demographic dividend (the extra growth possible when the share of working-age people is high) before the population ages.

• This needs jobs, skills and health care for a very large number of young people.

• Regional differences: Southern states have low fertility, while northern states have high fertility.

• So the north will add most of India's future growth.

• The two regions need different policies: population ageing in the south, and fertility, health and jobs in the north.

• Data gap in planning: The world's largest population is still planned with 2011 Census figures.

• SRS, NFHS and PLFS fill the gap only in part.
• Census 2027, India's first digital census [1], is needed to update delimitation (redrawing constituency boundaries), Finance Commission transfers and welfare targeting.

Related concepts

• Census of India
• Census 2027
• Sample Registration System
• National Family Health Survey

Read more

• India's population and its data sources