Discuss the concept of 'carbon lock-in' in the context of India's steel sector expansion. What policy measures can prevent India from being locked into high-emission steelmaking infrastructure?

Carbon lock-in is the self-perpetuating entrenchment of high-emission technologies through long-lived assets, sunk capital and supporting institutions, which makes later decarbonisation costly. India's steel sector, emitting 2.55 tCO2 per tonne of crude steel against a global average of 1.85, already accounts for 12% of national CO2 emissions [1] — making its expansion a decisive climate choice.

Why expansion risks lock-in

• Asset longevity: blast furnaces and coal-based DRI units operate 30–40 years. Capacity being added towards the National Steel Policy, 2017 target of 300 MT by 2030-31 [2] would fix the emissions path well beyond 2050, against the net-zero-2070 pledge.
• Technological path dependence: India's route mix is uniquely coal-based DRI heavy; limited domestic scrap availability constrains a quick shift to electric arc furnaces.
• Economic inertia: sunk capital in new furnaces creates stranded-asset risk, so producers resist switching while green hydrogen remains costlier than coking coal.
• Trade exposure: high embedded emissions weaken competitiveness under carbon border mechanisms in export markets.

Policy measures to avert lock-in

• Standard-setting: the Green Steel Taxonomy (December 2024) — the world's first — classifies steel below 2.2 tCO2e/tonne as green, enabling certification and credible benchmarking [3].
• Demand creation: the draft Green Steel Public Procurement Policy and a National Mission on Green Steel can guarantee offtake before cost parity is reached [3].
• Technology push: the MNRE pilot scheme under the National Green Hydrogen Mission (₹455 crore till FY2029-30) seeds hydrogen use in steelmaking [4].
• Transition levers: energy efficiency, renewables, gas-based DRI, material efficiency and CCUS, as mapped by the Ministry's 14 Task Forces roadmap [5].
• Design discipline: mandate new capacity to be hydrogen-ready and retrofit-ready, so today's investment stays convertible tomorrow.

Lock-in is avoidable if expansion and decarbonisation are planned together rather than sequentially. Anchoring new capacity in taxonomy-linked standards, assured green procurement and hydrogen readiness lets India meet its 300 MT ambition while advancing SDG 9 and its net-zero-2070 commitment.