Growth of population: the four phases since 1901

Detail

1. Basic ideas: what "population growth" means

• Population growth is the change in the number of people living in an area between two points in time. It is usually given as a percentage.

• Example: the change in India's population between Census 2001 and Census 2011.

• Growth has two parts:

Part	What it is	How it is measured
Natural growth	Births minus deaths	Crude birth rate (CBR) minus crude death rate (CDR)
Induced growth	People moving in minus people moving out	In-migration minus out-migration

• Crude birth rate (CBR): the number of live births in a year for every 1,000 people.
• Crude death rate (CDR): the number of deaths in a year for every 1,000 people.

• The NCERT chapter deals only with natural growth.

• Positive growth means births are higher than deaths, or more people arrive than leave. Negative growth means the population falls. India saw negative growth only once, in 1911-21.

2. Measuring growth: the formulas

• Decadal growth rate: the percentage change in population over ten years, i.e. from one Census to the next.
• g = (P2 − P1) ÷ P1 × 100. Here P1 is the population at the earlier Census and P2 is the population at the later Census.

• Worked example (Census figures): P1 = 1,028.7 million (2001) and P2 = 1,210.8 million (2011). So g = 182.1 ÷ 1,028.7 × 100 ≈ 17.64%.

• Annual (exponential) growth rate: the average yearly rate within a decade. It was 1.64% a year in 2011, for the 2001-11 decade.

• Doubling time: the number of years a population takes to double if it keeps growing at its current yearly rate.
• Shortcut (Rule of 70): doubling time ≈ 70 ÷ annual growth rate in %.
• At about 2.2% a year (1961-81): India would double in about 32 years.
• At 1.64% a year (2001-11): about 43 years.

• At about 0.9% a year (UN estimate, mid-2020s): about 78 years.

• An NCERT error to remember: the NCERT text calls India's growth rates "very high and steadily increasing". This is wrong. NCERT's own Table 1.1 shows the decadal growth rate falling after 1971-81: 24.80% → 24.66% → 23.87% → 21.54% → 17.64%. Growth is now about 0.9% a year by UN estimates.

3. Census background: where the data comes from

• First modern Census: held from 1865 to 1872. It was not held at the same time in all regions [2].
• First synchronous Census (the whole country counted at one fixed time): 1881 [2].
• Censuses were then held every 10 years. The 2021 round could not be held on time because of the COVID-19 pandemic, so Census 2011 is still the latest completed count [2].

• Because of this, there is no official decadal growth rate for 2001-11 to 2011-21.

• The Census is a Union subject. It is entry 69 of the Union List in the Seventh Schedule. It runs under the Census Act, 1948 and the Census Rules, 1990 [3].

• Census 2027 facts:
• It is the 16th Census in the series and the 8th since Independence [2][3].
• Reference date: 00:00 hours on 1 March 2027. For Ladakh, the snow-bound areas of Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand, it is 1 October 2026 [2][3].
• Phase I, Houselisting and Housing Census: April-September 2026. Each State or UT gets a 30-day window, with an optional 15-day self-enumeration period before it [2][3].
• Phase II, Population Enumeration: February 2027 [2][3].
• It is India's first digital Census: data is collected on mobile phones [2].
• It is the first Census since Independence to count all castes. Until 2011, only SCs and STs were counted. The Cabinet Committee on Political Affairs decided this on 30 April 2025, and castes will be counted in Phase II [2][3].
• Budget: ₹11,718.24 crore [2].

4. Table 1.1: decadal growth of India, 1901-2011 (NCERT)

Census year	Population (million)	Decadal growth (%)	Phase
1901	238.4	—	I
1911	252.1	5.75	I
1921	251.3	−0.31 (only decline)	I
1931	279.0	11.00	II
1941	318.6	14.22	II
1951	361.0	13.31	II
1961	439.2	21.64	III
1971	548.1	24.80 (peak)	III
1981	683.3	24.66	III
1991	846.4	23.87	IV
2001	1,028.7	21.54	IV
2011	1,210.8	17.64	IV

• From 1901 to 2011 the population grew about 5 times (238.4 m → 1,210.8 m).
• Turning points to memorise:
• 1921: the only fall. It is called the "Great Divide".
• 1951: the start of rapid growth.
• 1961-71: the peak.
• After 1981: steady slowdown.

• Census 2011 counted 1,210,726,932 people on 1 March 2011 (provisional decadal growth: 17.7%).

• Fig. 1.3 in the NCERT chapter plots these figures. The curve is flat from 1901 to 1921, rises gently from 1921 to 1951, rises steeply from 1951 to 1981, and keeps rising after 1981 but less steeply.

5. Phase I: 1901-1921, the stagnant or stationary phase

• Stagnant phase of population growth: a period when the population hardly grows, because both the birth rate and the death rate are high and almost cancel out.
• Data: 238.4 m (1901) → 251.3 m (1921). Growth was 5.75% in 1901-11 and −0.31% in 1911-21.
• Why births were high: early marriage, illiteracy, and children seen as extra hands in farming.
• Why deaths were high (NCERT):
• poor health and medical services
• illiteracy among most people

• inefficient distribution of food and other basic needs

• Why 1911-21 actually fell (beyond NCERT):

• Famines and food shortages killed many people.
• Plague spread in epidemics.
• The 1918 influenza pandemic ("Spanish flu") hit India very hard.
• So deaths were higher than births, and the population fell.

6. Phase II: 1921-1951, the steady growth phase

• Steady growth phase: a period when the death rate falls but the birth rate stays high, so the population grows at a moderate, steady pace.
• Data: 251.3 m (1921) → 361.0 m (1951). Growth was 11.00% (1921-31), 14.22% (1931-41) and 13.31% (1941-51).
• Cause → process → result:
• Cause: better health and sanitation across the country, and better transport and communication.
• Process: food reached famine areas faster and diseases were controlled better, so the death rate fell. The birth rate stayed high.

• Result: natural growth went up and the population rose every decade.

• This growth is called mortality-induced growth (growth caused by falling deaths, not rising births).

• It was impressive because it came despite the Great Depression (1929-30s) and World War II (1939-45). Both hurt the economy, and the 1943 Bengal famine fell in this period too.
• 1921 is the "Great Divide" in India's demographic history: the population fell before it and grew in every decade after it.

7. Phase III: 1951-1981, the population explosion phase

• Population explosion phase: a period of very rapid growth. The death rate falls sharply while the birth rate stays high, so the gap between them, which is natural growth, becomes very large.
• Data: 361.0 m (1951) → 683.3 m (1981). The population almost doubled in 30 years.
• Peak decadal growth: 24.80% (1961-71). Next highest: 24.66% (1971-81).

• Average annual growth was about 2.2%.

• Why deaths fell fast:

• Planned development through the Five-Year Plans after 1951.
• Better medicine, vaccination and malaria control.

• Better living conditions.

• Why births stayed high: fertility was still high, early marriage was common, and the family planning programme, started in 1952, had only a weak effect at first.

• Migration added to growth (induced component): Tibetans (after 1959), Bangladeshis (around 1971), Nepalis, and people from Pakistan.
• Result: a very young population and a heavy load on food, jobs, housing and schools.

8. Phase IV: after 1981, the phase of declining growth

• Phase of declining growth: growth is still high, but the rate slows down decade by decade because the birth rate starts to fall.
• Data: 23.87% (1981-91) → 21.54% (1991-2001) → 17.64% (2001-11), reaching 1,210.8 m (2011). The annual rate was 1.64% in 2011.
• Why the birth rate (CBR) fell (NCERT):
• a higher mean age at marriage (people marry later, so they have fewer years to bear children)
• a better quality of life

• above all, female education: educated women marry later, want fewer children and use health services more

• Even so, the population keeps growing in absolute numbers: about 182 million were added in 2001-11. The base is very large, and many young people are now entering child-bearing age. This is called population momentum.

• After 2011 (beyond NCERT): growth has slowed further, to about 0.9% a year by UN estimates in the mid-2020s.

9. The four phases and the demographic transition model

• Demographic transition model (DTM): a model that explains how a country's population changes as it moves from a poor, rural, high-birth, high-death society to a rich, urban, low-birth, low-death society.

DTM stage	Birth rate	Death rate	Growth	Indian phase
Stage 1: high stationary	High	High, swinging up and down	Very slow or none	Phase I (1901-21)
Stage 2: early expanding	High	Falling	Rising	Phase II (1921-51)
Stage 2 to early stage 3	High, starting to fall	Falling fast	Fastest	Phase III (1951-81)
Stage 3: late expanding	Falling	Low	Slowing	Phase IV (after 1981)
Stage 4: low stationary	Low	Low	Near zero	India's future

• India today is in the late stage of the transition. Births are falling, deaths are low, and the population is youthful but ageing.
• Southern and western states such as Kerala and Tamil Nadu are further along.

• North-central states such as Bihar and Uttar Pradesh are still growing fast.

• Worldwide, Western Europe and Japan have finished the transition. Much of sub-Saharan Africa is still in Stage 2.

Prelims Hooks

• India's population fell only once after 1901: in 1911-21 (−0.31%). That is why 1921 is called the "Great Divide".
• Highest decadal growth: 1961-71 (24.80%), then 1971-81 (24.66%). Trap: the peak is not 1951-61 (21.64%).
• Phase order with years: Stagnant (1901-21) → Steady growth (1921-51) → Population explosion (1951-81) → Declining growth (after 1981).
• Phase II growth came mainly from falling deaths (mortality-induced). Phase IV slowdown came mainly from falling births, led by female education and later marriage.
• Decadal growth rate = (P2 − P1) ÷ P1 × 100. Doubling time ≈ 70 ÷ annual growth rate. At 2.2% a year this is about 32 years.
• Census 2011: 1,210.8 million; decadal growth 17.64%; annual growth 1.64%. Trap: NCERT's claim that growth is "steadily increasing" is false. Growth has been falling since 1971-81.
• First Census: 1872 (not synchronous). First synchronous Census: 1881 [2].
• Census 2027: 16th Census and 8th since Independence. Reference date 1 March 2027 (1 October 2026 for snow-bound areas). It is the first digital Census and the first to count all castes since Independence [2][3].
• The Census is entry 69, Union List, Seventh Schedule, and runs under the Census Act, 1948 [3].

Mains Points

• How mortality fell before fertility: better health, sanitation and transport cut deaths from 1921 onwards. Birth rates stayed high until the 1980s. This gap caused the explosion of 1951-81, when the population nearly doubled in 30 years. Use it to explain India's young age structure and the pressure on land, jobs and cities (GS-I).
• Female education is the strongest brake on fertility. It raises the age at marriage, lowers desired family size and improves the use of health services. The fall in decadal growth from 24.66% (1971-81) to 17.64% (2001-11) shows this. It argues for investing in girls' schooling rather than coercive population control.
• Regional differences within the transition: the southern states are near the end of the transition while the Hindi-belt states are still growing fast. This affects seat delimitation, the sharing of Finance Commission funds, and migration from north to south.
• The data gap: no Census was held in 2021, so 2011 figures are 15 years old. Census 2027, digital and with caste data, will give the first decadal growth figure since 2011 and show how far India has moved into the late stage of the transition [2].