How far can strategic autonomy be sustained when about 85% of crude is imported? Discuss with reference to recent U.S. sanctions legislation.

Strategic autonomy means India makes its foreign-policy choices on its own terms. Energy is its hardest test, because India imports about 85% of its crude [2]. The U.S. Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act, 2026 allows secondary tariffs of up to 100% on large buyers of Russian oil [1]. India's response shows that its autonomy survives, but only in part, as calibrated hedging.

How import dependence constrains autonomy

• Reactive sourcing: In September 2026, the month the Act became law, India cut U.S. crude to zero and sharply reduced Russian purchases [1].
• Market-access leverage: At about 85% dependence, India cannot easily risk U.S. tariffs while it keeps buying from a sanctioned seller.
• Concentration persists: Russia and the UAE still supply 60% of imports [1]. The Standing Committee on Petroleum and Natural Gas (2023) warned that relying too much on the conflict-prone Middle East weakens energy security [3].
• Thin buffers: Strategic petroleum reserves are below global standards [2]. Rupee settlement of crude imports has been slow, which leaves payments exposed to dollar-based pressure [3].

Where autonomy still operates

• No capitulation: India did not exit Russian oil. With the UAE at just over a quarter and the two together at 60%, Russia still supplies roughly a third [1].
• Supply secured: Total imports rose 9.5% month-on-month to 209.4 lakh tonnes [1]. India changed the mix, not the volume.
• Negotiating space: The U.S. temporarily waived the tariffs by executive order on 16 October 2026 [1]. India's weight as a buyer earns it room to bargain.
• Long-term hedges: Ethanol blending rose from about 1.5% to about 10% between 2013-14 and 2023-24. Policy also pushes EVs and green hydrogen [3].

Assessment India can sustain autonomy as hedging: it keeps many sellers in play and adjusts volumes under pressure, rather than openly defying Washington. The waiver is only temporary [1], so this space will last only if India reduces the underlying vulnerability. Domestic crude output is falling while net imports are rising [3].

Heavy import dependence narrows India's strategic autonomy but does not erase it. Several steps can turn reactive balancing into real choice:

• fill and expand the strategic reserves;
• speed up rupee trade;
• diversify beyond two suppliers;
• revive domestic exploration, as the Standing Committee urged [3].

These steps would align energy security with SDG 7 and India's multi-alignment.